 Getting
to Zero Update
28 July 2009
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IN THIS ISSUE:
BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
BASIC is delighted to announce the appointment of its new
Program Director in Washington, Anne Penketh. She has a distinguished
career as an international journalist, and was most recently
Diplomatic Editor of The Independent (London). Anne
began her reporting on nuclear weapons issues at the Geneva
and Reykjavik Summits in 1985-6 between Presidents Reagan
and Gorbachev. In recent years she has continued to work on
disarmament and non-proliferation issues, including covering
diplomatic maneuvers at the United Nations over Iran's nuclear
program. Anne will start in August. For more information,
please see BASIC's Media
Advisory.
Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament were on the agenda
of both the G8 Summit meeting in L'Aquila, Italy and the U.S.-Russia
Summit in Moscow. Two weeks later, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon
Brown released his Road to 2010 report on nuclear energy and
weapons, which was quickly followed by private briefings indicating
that the design contract for the Trident nuclear weapons submarine
system would be delayed until after the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in May 2010. See these BASIC
publications and Update sections below for more information.
- The Shadow NATO Summit: Options for NATO - pressing
the reset button on the strategic concept
Joint report by BASIC, ISIS-Europe, Bertelsmann Stiftung
and NATO Watch, on inaugural Shadow NATO Summit of 31 March
- 1 April 2009, posted 23 July 2009.
http://www.basicint.org/pubs/natoshadow.pdf
Visit the GTZ
Blog.
Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
Obama and Medvedev sign agreement on the Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty (START) follow-on
After months of preparations, U.S. President Barack Obama
arrived
in Moscow on July 6 for a two-day summit with Russian President
Dmitri Medvedev. The "reset" summit included both leaders
signing a Joint
Understanding for the START Follow-on Treaty, which commits
the two nations to an agreement that will reduce the number
of strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles to a range
of 1,500-1,675, and 500-1,100 respectively. Negotiating delegations
are led by Rose Gottemoeller, U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State, and Anatoly Antonov, Russia's Chief of Security and
Disarmament Issues. The 1991 START
agreement, which expires on December 5, allows for a total
of 6,000 warheads on 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles, and
the 2002 Moscow Treaty - Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty
(SORT)
- set limits between 1,700-2,200 operationally deployed strategic
warheads by 2012, but without verification. U.S. and Russian
negotiators met again on July 22 and 23. Reports from Geneva
were positive,
but had few details.
G-8 Summit in L'Aquila
Leaders at the Group of Eight (G8) Summit in L'Aquila, Italy
(8-10 July) issued a statement
on non-proliferation which declared, "We are all committed
to seeking a safer world for all and to creating the conditions
for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the
goals of the NPT." The leaders supported U.S. President Obama's
desire to seek ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban
Treaty (CTBT), and called for bringing the treaty into force.
The statement urged Iran to engage diplomatically with the
international community, and sharply criticized the May nuclear
test in North Korea. At the G8 Summit, U.S. President Obama
presented his plan
to host a Global Nuclear Security Summit on March 9 and 10,
2010, which would provide a platform for multilateral discussion
on such issues as cooperatively combating international nuclear
smuggling and nuclear terrorism.
IAEA selects new chief
On July 2, Yukiya Amano was selected
by the IAEA Board of Governors to be the next Secretary-General.
He replaces Mohamed ElBaradei, whose term will end in November
2009. Amano has been the favored pick of the United States
and Europe, and will be the first East Asian to serve as Director
General of the IAEA. The alternative candidate, South Africa's
Abdul Samad Minty, was supported
by the representatives of countries of the developing world
who perceive
tighter non-proliferation rules as undue limitations to their
development of peaceful nuclear energy whilst nuclear weapon
states avoid their own responsibilities to disarm. After the
election, Amano asked
for the "solidarity of all the member states," and assured
developing countries that the IAEA is not just a "nuclear
watchdog."
Further Reading
Country Reports
United States
Obama's commitment to nuclear disarmament
U.S. President Barack Obama continues to show a serious commitment
to nuclear disarmament, and has repeatedly focused on issues
of arms control in his communications. Analysts have gone
so far as to suggest that arms control is a fundamental part
of his Presidential strategy,
and that it is part of an emerging "Obama
Doctrine." The New York Times ran a major
story
on Obama's activism as a senior at Columbia University in
1983 on issues of nuclear disarmament, and argued that Obama
has long been committed to a world without nuclear weapons.
Clinton says she considers disarmament a priority
At a presentation
at the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton said, "We want to reverse the spread
of nuclear weapons, prevent their use, and build a world free
of their threat." Clinton reiterated that the United
States stands ready to engage diplomatically with Iran, although
she said that opportunity will not last forever, and also
affirmed that the United States was pursuing "complete
and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."
(See more information below on the latest reports from Iran
and North Korea.)
Further Reading
United Kingdom
Road to 2010
The Cabinet Office released the cross-department report,
The
Road to 2010: Addressing the nuclear question in the 21st
century, with proposals to smooth the route to the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in
May of 2010, highlighting in particular the importance of
civil nuclear power programs. The report announced the creation
of a £20 million Nuclear Centre of Excellence in the
United Kingdom that would develop proliferation-resistant
nuclear technologies, a meeting of major donors to discuss
the future funding and capabilities of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), and recommitment to hosting a Nuclear
Weapons States conference in September. For more information,
also see BASIC's analysis
of the Road to 2010 report.
Government officials signal Trident delay
Later on the same day, British officials indicated explicitly
the government's intention to delay signing off on design
contracts for the Trident nuclear system replacement until
after the NPT Review Conference in May 2010 —a signal
of the importance the U.K. government attaches to its success.
This "initial
gate" phase was scheduled to happen this fall. The
following morning a government spokesperson said that the
timetable for the project remains unchanged. Analysts speculated
this was possible as the timetable had always included significant
flexibility within it. The move to delay may have reflected
concerns
about tight defense budgets and the looming General Election.
Poll shows public support waning for Trident
Just before the release of the Road to 2010 report and news
about a delay for Trident replacement, The Guardian
published
the results of its poll
with ICM that showed 54% of U.K. voters were against renewing
the U.K. system, and 42% were in favour. The results are in
contrast to findings from two years ago that had 39% opposing
and 51% in favour.
Further Reading
Iran
Uncertainty over future of P5+1 talks with Iran
The continued post-election crisis in Iran has thrown the
future of multilateral negotiations on Iran's nuclear program
into doubt. The United
States and the European
Union have pledged to continue to pursue diplomatic engagement
on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. Leaders at the G8
summit in L'Aquila, Italy issued a joint statement
reiterating their commitment to a diplomatic solution with
Iran and strongly encouraging Tehran to comply with U.N. Security
Council resolutions and to cooperate with the IAEA. In an
apparent reaction to the G8 focus on Iran, Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had announced
on July 13 that Tehran was preparing a political package
to present to the west.
On July 16, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization,
Gholam Reza Aghazedeh, resigned.
Although the reasons for the resignation are not entirely
clear, Aghazedeh had been a long-time supporter of opposition
candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and former president Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appointed
Ali Akbar Salehi, former Iranian envoy to the IAEA, to be
the new head of Iran's nuclear energy agency. In Salehi's
first public announcement, he declared that the West needs
to close
the case on Iran's nuclear activity.
Clinton's remarks on Iran spark Israeli concern
Speaking in Phuket, Thailand on July 22, U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton warned
that if Iran pursues a nuclear weapons program, then the United
States may extend a "defense umbrella" over allies in the
Middle East, and said that "... it's unlikely that Iran will
be any stronger or safer, because they won't be able to intimidate
and dominate, as they apparently believe they can, once they
have a nuclear weapon." Dan Meridor, Israel's minister of
intelligence and atomic energy, reacted
negatively to the comments, which he saw as suggesting that
the United States has already accepted a nuclear-armed Iran.
Clinton subsequently sought to dispel
this notion, saying that she was simply reminding Iran that
pursuing nuclear weapons would lead to a nuclear arms race
in the Middle East. On July 26, Clinton warned
Iranian leaders that any search for a nuclear weapon capability
would be futile and that Obama's administration would not
allow Iran to produce its own nuclear fuel, even under safeguards.
On a visit
to Tel Aviv a day later, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates
again reassured
Israel that the United States was not about to compromise
with Iran.
Further Reading
North Korea
North Korea launches more missiles, refuses resumption
of talks
In defiance of U.N. sanctions, North Korea conducted more
missile tests in early July. In response to these recent actions
and the May 25th nuclear test, the U.N. Security Council expanded
its sanctions against the country. New targets
of sanctions include North Korea's General Bureau of Atomic
Energy, trading companies, and individuals involved in the
nuclear program, associated businesses and also weapons-related
materials.
During her visit to Thailand for the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum on July 22, U.S. Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton called for a revival
of the Six-Party Talks and urged ASEAN members to enforce
the U.N. sanctions imposed against North Korea. Clinton said
that the United States would be willing to offer North Korea
a "comprehensive package" should it choose to denuclearize.
She also mentioned concerns
over the possibility that North Korea might be sharing nuclear
technology with Myanmar (Burma). According to Japan's Kyodo
News Agency, North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations,
Sin Son Ho, said that Pyongyang would be willing to engage
in direct
dialogue with Washington, but rejected the possibility of
agreeing to any package deals that would involve the resumption
of North Korea's participation in the Six-Party Talks.
Further Reading
Russia
Bulava missile tests fail again
While the world was paying close attention to the Obama-Medvedev
summit and the resulting commitments to a START follow-on
treaty, Russia's Navy conducted successful tests of two submarine-launched
Sineva-type ballistic missiles and another failed
test of the new, nuclear-capable submarine-launched Bulava
missile, which led to the resignation
of the missile's design team leader. The Bulava missile is
an upgraded design of the land-based Topol M, and is designed
to both survive a nuclear attack and penetrate anti-missile
defense systems. Despite 6 out of 11 launches of the Bulava
ending in failure, Vice Admiral Oleg Burtsev of the Russian
Navy stated,
"We are committed to this missile flying." Since its commissioning
in 1998, a great deal of domestic political capital has been
invested
in the Bulava, promoted by Mr. Putin as the new core of Russia's
modernized nuclear forces.
The first Borey-class strategic nuclear submarine Yury Dolgoruky,
designed to carry 16 Bulavas, completed
its initial sea trials with more later in the year. Two more
Borey class nuclear submarines, the Alexander Nevsky and the
Vladimir Monomakh, are still under construction.
Russia plans to have eight by 2015.
Further Reading
India
U.S.-India nuclear deal
During her mid-July visit to India, U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton announced key agreements
that will broaden cooperation between the two countries under
the bilateral nuclear deal. Officials agreed on two sites
for U.S. nuclear
reactors. India will also purchase advanced U.S. conventional
weapon systems, including fighter jets, raising concerns over
the impact on the strategic balance with Pakistan.
On July 26, India ran a sea trial of its first domestically-produced
nuclear-powered submarine,
capable of launching nuclear ballistic missiles. The submarine
is due for at least two years of testing before becoming operational.
India would become the sixth
country, after the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom,
France and China, to make nuclear-powered submarines.
Further Reading
Pakistan
French visit to Pakistan raises expectations for nuclear
cooperation
The recent July visit of French Minister for Foreign Trade,
Anne Marie Idrac, had raised expectations that France was
going to strike a large civilian nuclear energy deal with
Pakistan. Back in May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmoud
Qureshi, had said that France was going to agree to an arrangement
like the one struck between India and the United States. However,
Idrac said on July 23 during a press conference in Islamabad
that France would not establish a new nuclear reactor in the
country and that any aid related to nuclear energy would be
for securing and enhancing the safety of Pakistan's existing
nuclear sites. France did agree to provide other types of
assistance,
including high technology military gear and weapons, such
as combat helicopters.
Further Reading
Missile Defense
U.S. missile defense in Eastern European sites were seen
to be a principal sticking point in START follow-on negotiations
prior to the Obama-Medvedev summit on July 6. At the summit
press
conference, Obama stated, "I believe that it is entirely
legitimate for our discussions to talk not only about offensive
weapon systems but also defensive weapon systems." The United
States plans
to finish its review of European missile defense by the end
of the summer. Obama and Medvedev agreed on a special Joint
Statement on "Missile Defense Issues," which iterated
their commitment to seek out ways of cooperation on dealing
with ballistic missile proliferation. The statement also noted
that experts are again discussing the establishment of the
Joint Data Exchange Center (JDEC), a project which has languished
since the initial Russian-American memorandum
of 2000 on the Center's establishment.
After the Obama-Medvedev summit, 22 intellectuals and former
leaders of Central and Eastern Europe published an "open
letter" to President Obama in the Polish newspaper Gazeta
Wyborcza. The authors of the July 15th letter, who include
Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel, believe
there remains a real threat from Russia. They assert that
the project has become "a symbol of America's credibility
and commitment to the region." The letter urges President
Obama and NATO not to make decisions based on "unfounded Russian
opposition."
Further Reading
- An Open Letter to the Obama Administration from Central
and Eastern Europe
Valdas Adamkus, Martin Butora, Emil Constantinescu,
Pavol Demes, Lubos Dobrovsky, Matyas Eorsi, Istvan Gyarmati,
Vaclav Havel, Rastislav Kacer, Sandra Kalniete, Karel Schwarzenberh,
Michal Kovac, Ivan Krastev, Alexander Kwasniewski, Mart
Laar, Kadri Liik, Janos Martonyi, Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Adam
Rotfeld, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, Alexandr Vondra, Lech Walesa,
Gazeta Wunprcza, July 15, 2009
http://wyborcza.pl/1,82049,6825987,An_Open_
Letter_to_the_Obama_Administration_from_Central.html
Additional Publications
- Four Emerging Issues in Arms Control, Disarmament,
and Nonproliferation:
Opportunities for German Leadership
Dennis M. Gormley, Patricia M. Lewis, Miles A. Pomper, Lawrence
Scheinman, Stephen Schwartz, Nikolai Sokov, Leonard S. Spector,
report Prepared for the Policy Planning Staff, Foreign Office,
Federal Republic of Germany, The James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, July 2009 http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/090717_german_leadership/
german_leadership_full.pdf
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