Iran Update
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 121 - 11 July 2008
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Summary
- Iran tests 9 missiles, including enhanced version of
Shahab-3 MRBM
- Article claims Bush administration authorized expanded
covert operations in Iran
- Threats over the Strait of Hormuz highlight latest rhetorical
exchanges
- Positive developments in Tehran's consideration of revised
P5+1 offer
- Dismissed agent alleges CIA cover-up of Iranian nuclear
program
- Accusations of attempts on Ahmadinejad's life in Italy
and Iraq
- British Special Forces claim evidence of Iranian assistance
to Taliban militants
The Iranian military test-fired
9 missiles on July 9, including an increased-range version
of its Shahab-3
medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Iranian officials
claim that the missile has a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles),
which if true would enable Iran to strike Israel and the American
fleet in the Persian Gulf-actions recently
threatened by Ali Shiraz, Advisor to the Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei, in the event of a US or Israeli attack on the
country's nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad
referred to the prospect of a strike on Iran as 'a funny joke'.
Iran's missile testing was conducted after recent
Israeli air exercises over Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean
(see BASIC's
last Iran Update) and US
naval maneuvers in the Persian Gulf, as well as the imposition
of new US sanctions against Iran specifically targetting
Iranian citizens and companies thought to be connected to
the country's nuclear and missile programs.
In an article entitled 'Preparing
the Battlefield' in the current issue of The New Yorker,
journalist Seymour Hersh reports that the Bush administration
has authorized $400 million for expanded clandestine operations
in Iran. Hersh claims that the operations "involve the Central
Intelligence Agency and the Joint Special Operations Command
(JSOC)" and are intended to destabilize Iran's religious leadership,
gather intelligence and possibly kill 'high-value' individuals.
He also asserts that US Special Operations Forces use southern
Iraq as a base for missions into Iran that they have been
carrying out since last year. Ryan Crocker, the American Ambassador
to Iraq, was quick to deny
Hersh's allegations, stating that, 'I can tell you flatly
that US forces are not operating across the Iraqi border into
Iran, in the south or anywhere else.' State Department spokesman
Tom Casey also dismissed
the article, referring to Hersh as a 'conspiracy minded
journalist'.
On June 28, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of
Iran's Revolutionary Guards, warned
the US and Israel that Iran would block entry to the Strait
of Hormuz in the event of a military strike. The Strait is
a critical waterway-connecting the Gulf of Oman and the Persian
Gulf-through which 90 percent of oil produced in the Persian
Gulf travels. The
Times notes that this accounts for '40 per cent of
the world's traded oil supply'. The threat caused world oil
prices to jump to $145 a barrel. In
response, the commander of the US 5th Fleet, Vice Admiral
Kevin Cosgriff, said that the US and the international community
would not allow such an action.
The threats over the Strait are just some of the latest examples
of an international exchange of bellicose rhetoric over Iran's
nuclear program the past few weeks. On June 30, Iranian General
Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh told the media that the country's
army plans to dig 320,000 graves for invading soldiers. In
an interview
with Der Spiegel, former Israeli Air Force general
and Kadima party member Isaac Ben-Israel said that Israel
had the capabilities to strike Iran at any time and 'will
not stand by idly while Iran builds a nuclear bomb'. Despite
a string of similar statements by Israeli politicians, Israel's
leaders seemed to heed Bush's
call for multilateral diplomacy, assuring the West that
they
would not attack Iran in 2008. An official from Russia's Foreign
Ministry warned that an attack on Iran would have 'catastrophic'
impacts across the entire Middle East.
Time
magazine notes that negotiations over the updated P5+1
package 'would begin with the "freeze for freeze" proposal'.
This proposal-presented by Javier Solana, the High Representative
for the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), to
Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator-entails a six-week
'freeze period' in which Iran will not add additional centrifuges
to its Natanz facility, while the international community
will not levy further sanctions on Iran.
In recent days, the news regarding Tehran's consideration
of the updated
P5+1 incentives package-covered in BASIC's last Iran Update-has
taken a positive turn. Iranian Foreign Minister Manoucher
Mottaki and Ali Akbar Velayati, Ayatollah Khamenei's foreign
policy advisor, have
indicated that compromise on the offer may be possible.
Velayati said that the US wanted Tehran to dismiss the package,
stating that, '[t]hose who are agitating against our interests
want that we reject the offer. As a consequence, it is in
our interests to accept it.' The Supreme Leader himself has
referred to the document as acceptable 'in principle'. Iran
issued a formal response to the offer over the weekend of
July 5-6 and there appeared confusion as P5+1 officials were
divided over the next step.
Solana plans
to visit Tehran again on July 19 to continue negotiations
with Iran. His visit will come in light of this week's Hokkaido
Toyako G-8 Summit, where world leaders pressed
Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program and 'to respond
to the updated incentives package in a constructive manner'.
The US Congress is in the middle of debate over House
Congressional Resolution 362. The bill calls for the US
to prevent refined petroleum products from entering Iran and
advocates a 'stringent inspection requirements on all persons,
vehicles, ships, planes, trains and cargo entering or departing
Iran'. The passing of the bill may require a US naval blockade
of Iran, which could be perceived a declaration of war.
On June 27, a former CIA agent filed a motion in US Federal
Court urging
the declassification of agency documents related to intelligence
he obtained on Iran's nuclear program. The operative-a 22-year
agency veteran from the Middle East-claims that while conducting
covert operations he discovered evidence about Iran and Iraq's
weapons programs which did not support the CIA's positions.
He alleges that his supervisors encouraged him to misrepresent
his findings, suppressed the release of information with which
they disagreed, and eventually brought false charges of misconduct
against him, resulting in his dismissal from the agency.
Abolfazi Zohrevand, Iran's former ambassador to Italy, claimed
that an attempt was made on President Ahmadinejad's life during
a recent visit to Rome. Zohrevand cited abnormally high radiation
levels in Ahmadinejad's temporary residence as evidence of
a conspiracy to kill the president during his visit to the
UN Food and Agriculture Organization's headquarters. This
follows accusations
made by President Ahmadinejad of US plans to kidnap and
assassinate him during a March visit to Iraq. He promised
to provide the international community with proof of the incident.
British Special Forces operating near the Iranian-Afghan
border claim to have
discovered evidence of Iranian arms supplies to Taliban
fighters, in particular roadside bomb-making materials. Tehran
denied
any relationship with the Taliban, stressing its support for
international counterterrorism efforts. June was the deadliest
month of fighting in Afghanistan since late 2001, as NATO
lost 49 ISAF troops, including 23 American and 13 British
soldiers, many to roadside IED explosions. The UN reports
also indicate dramatic increases in civilian
deaths resulting from IED detonations.
Stephen Herzog, BASIC
Stories and Links
McCain jokes about Iran cigarette sales, Citizen Wire
Services, 09/07
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/newsbriefs/story.html?
id=a4a71088-f9a6-415c-b2df-a694edef11e5
Russia: Iran is ready for N-talks, Press TV, 09/07
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=63149§ionid=351020104
Expert: 'US won't allow Israel to attack Iran', Jerusalem
Post, 08/07
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1215330891157&
pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
UN's Ban encouraged by EU dialogue with Iran, AFP,
07/07
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080707/wl_mideast_afp/g8summit
irannuclearpoliticsunban_080707064403;_ylt=AscBrazUSvHsH3CA50y0HTFSw60A
Iran says hostages still alive in Israel, after 26 years,
Gulf Times, 04/07
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/printArticle.asp?
cu_no=2&item_no=228113&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17
Netherlands bans Iranian students from nuclear studies,
AFP, 04/07
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080704/wl_mideast_afp/netherlands
irannuclearpoliticsstudents_ 080704224456;_ylt=AjY_9uTzkv8nYd8.KOboFy5Sw60A
US, Iran downplay talk of war over nuclear dispute,
RFE/RL, 03/07
http://www.rferl.org/content/U.S._Iran_Downplay_Talk_War_Nuclear_Dispute/
1181422.html
US admiral warns Israel against opening Iran 'third front',
by James Sturcke, Guardian, 03/07
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/07/will_israel_bomb_iran.html
Iran minister: We might consider U.S. diplomatic presence,
CNN, 02/07
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/02/iran.us/index.html?iref=hpmostpop
Iran: Frattini, Not Optimistic About Answer to "P5+1",
AGI, 02/07
http://www.agi.it/italy/news/200807021754-pol-ren0077-art.html
Bush to Press G8 to Keep Up Pressure on Extremists, Iran,
by Donna Miles, American Forces Press Service, 02/07
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=50385
Iran remembers victims of airliner shot down by US,
by Ali Akbar Dareini, AP, 02/07
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080702/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_plane_crash_anniversary
Top US official: IAF unlikely to hit Iran in '08,
by Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post, 01/07
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/
ShowFull&cid=1214726170373
Bagheri Appointed as Member of Iran's N. Negotiating Team, Fars, 01/07
http://www.farsnews.com/English/newstext.php?nn=8704111248
Good opportunity for G5+1 for talks with Iran: MPs, IRNA, 01/07
http://www2.irna.com/en/news/view/line-22/0807015739182535.htm
Iran sentences man to death for spying for Israel, by Hashem Kalantari and Fredrik Dahl, Reuters, 30/06
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSDAH02094420080630?
feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
Rafsanjani: Israel can't attack Iran, Press TV, 29/06
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=61859§ionid=351020101
US Ambassador Says More Talks Possible With Iran on Iraq, by Paula Wolfson, VOA News, 29/06
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-06-29-voa19.cfm
US elections: Congressional Democrats attack McCain on Iran sanctions, by Daniel Nasaw, Guardian, 26/06
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/26/johnmccain.barackobama
US businessmen accused of military sales to Iran, by Brian Wagner, VOA News, 26/06
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-06-26-voa65.cfm
Iran condemns EU financial restrictions, IRNA, 24/06
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-17/0806243920112451.htm
Sarkozy calls nuclear Iran 'unacceptable', RIA Novosti, 23/06
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080623/111768199.html
Comments, Editorial and Analysis
U.S. exports to Iran grow during Bush's presidency,
by Sharon Theimer, AP, 09/07
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
20080709/NEWS07/807090351/1009/NEWS07
Tehran leaves no room for doubt, by Julian Borger,
Guardian, 09/07
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/09/iran
Escalation, audio interview with Seymour Hersh, The
New Yorker, 07/07
http://www.newyorker.com/online/2008/07/07/080707on_audio_hersh
Not So Quiet on the Third Front, by Dana Milbank,
Washington Post, 03/07
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2008/07/02/AR2008070202798.html?hpid=topnews
Iran looks East as Europe looks the other way, by
Luke Manzarpour, Press TV, 02/07
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail.aspx?id=62312§ionid=3510303
Will the U.S. open an office in Iran?, by Howard LaFranchi,
Christian Science Monitor, 02/07
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0702/p03s07-usfp.html
Thinking about Preventative Military Action against Iran,
by Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt, Policywatch,
01/07
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2909
What Ahmadinejad Does Not Say, by Shalom Freedman,
Arutz Sheva, 30/06
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/8075
Are sanctioned Iranian banks actually sponsoring anti-Western
terror?, Haaretz, 26/06
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/996289.html
Israel and Iran: It's later than you think, The
Economist, 26/06
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11622496
Pressure Tightens on Iran Over Nuclear Program, by
Gary Thomas, VOA News, 25/06
http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-06-25-voa66.cfm
The Case for Bombing Iran, by Norman Podhoretz, Commentary,
June
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/
the-case-for-bombing-iran-10882
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