Iran Update
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 117 - 24 April 2008
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Summary
- IAEA seeks explanation of documents that show nuclear
warhead design.
- Diplomatic engagement with Iran: P5, Germany and the E.U.
meet in Shanghai; IAEA encourages Iran to re-enter negotiations;
Iran to extend a solution; the secret U.S.- Iranian talks
facilities by Thomas Pickering.
- Angus Reid Poll: Iranians want nuclear energy not nuclear
weapons
- Analysis of Iran's application for full membership of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
The IAEA's deputy director Olli Heinonen started two
days of talks with Iran's deputy security chief Javad
Vaeedi, in Tehran on April 21st. The talks are an IAEA effort
to get answers to some of the most contentious, outstanding
issues about Iran's previous nuclear plans. Earlier this year,
Heinonen presented documents to an IAEA board meeting that
indicated links in Iran between projects to process uranium,
test explosives and modify a missile cone in a way suitable
for a nuclear warhead. The Institute for Science and International
Security has released unofficial notes made by an unidentified
diplomat present at Mr. Heinonen's presentation, which can
be viewed here.
To date, Iran has said that the documents Mr. Heinonen presented
were forgeries and has not responded further to his allegations.
The meeting takes place amid hostile outbursts on both sides:
Iranian hardliners, such as newspaper editor Hossein Shariatmadari,
denounced
Iran's government for hosting Heinonen saying the trip
was part of a "joint U.S.-Israeli trick" aimed at hurting
Iran. US Defense Secretary Gates said,
on the eve of the talks, that Iran was "hell-bent" on getting
a nuclear weapon.
On April 16th, officials from the UN Security Council permanent-member
States, Germany and the EU met in Shanghai to discuss offering
Iran a more detailed incentives package based upon the June
2006 offer in return for cessation of all Iranian nuclear
activity. A Chinese official said
that they "had reached agreement on some major parts" but
did not elaborate further. The 2006 offer included civil nuclear
cooperation and wider trade in civil aircraft, energy, high
technology and agriculture. It seems unlikely that Iran will
accept any minor modifications to the 2006 package, which
they have already rejected, because their nuclear enrichment
programme has progressed further. One Iranian official said
that the package would have to be "a bit stronger" than in
2006 before it could be considered.
In the wake of the Shanghai meeting, IAEA director Mohammed
Elbaradei encouraged Iran to resume direct talks with the
P5+1. Elbaradei spoke of the urgent
need for the international community to reach agreement:
"We can inspect the past and the present, we cannot inspect
the future. We cannot inspect intentions… I call on Iran not
to speed up the process because we need first to have an agreement
with the international community."
Diplomacy is taking place away from the Shanghai meeting
table too. Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said
on Sunday 13th that Iran would soon unveil proposals with
"a new orientation" to help end international and other problems
but did not elaborate further.
One Shanghai-meeting participant, former senior US diplomat
Thomas Pickering said a group of former American diplomats
and experts had been meeting with Iranian academics and policy
advisers "in a lot of different places, although not in the
US or Iran". Pickering advocates
a compromise proposal, similar to that proposed
by Sir John Thomson of MIT, under which an international consortium
would run enrichment on Iranian soil to ensure the nuclear
fuel is not diverted for military purposes. Iran has said
it was open to such a consortium on its territory.
An Angus Reid poll has shown that only 20% of Iranians surveyed
in February of this year felt Iran should have nuclear weapons,
66% felt Iran should have a full and domestic fuel cycle as
part of their nuclear energy program, but should not develop
nuclear weapons. The survey
assessed Iranian and US attitudes towards many aspects of
Iran's nuclear programme.
Iran has applied
for full-membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
an intergovernmental security organization focused on central
Asia led by Russia and China, which allows for economic, political
and military cooperation between member states. Iran's nuclear
status appears to be the deciding factor in their quest for
full membership. Iran is currently an observer member of the
SCO; full membership may lead to deepening ties with China
and Russia. Indications are that China and Russia may decline,
or defer the application because of Iran's nuclear programme.
They have supported three rounds of sanctions against Iran
and as BASIC reported in a previous
Iran update, Beijing has supplied the IAEA with information
about Iran's nuclear program.
Janes Defence Group believes
it has located the secret facility from which Iran's experimental
rocket was launched on 4 February, using satellite imagery.
Analysts suspect that the rocket launched was only a single
stage, liquid-fueled rocket, with lower specifications that
those claimed by the Iranians at the time.
Ita O'Sullivan, BASIC
Stories and Links
Clinton, Obama tackle Iran issue in debate, Yahoo, April
16
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080417/pl_nm/
usa_politics_democrats_iran_dc_1
Clinton Says U.S. Could "Totally Obliterate" Iran, NY Times,
April 22
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/
politics-usa-politics-iran.html?_r=1&scp=1
&sq=clinton+iran&st=nyt&oref=slogin
Iran sanctions having impact: Treasury official, Yahoo, April
17
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080417/pl_nm/usa_iran_treasury_dc_1
How Iranians Are Avoiding Sanctions, Financial Times, April
14
Link here
Japan freezes assets tied to Iran's nuclear programme, Bloomberg,
April 22
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601101&sid=afhIVhJDYoZU&refer=japan
"Skepticism in Order "on claims of nuclear progress, RFERL,
April 9
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/04/
5e3e8940-9403-4d14-9f36-e6f65790eed9.html
Comments, Editorial and Analysis
The Rise and impact of Iran's Neo-Cons, Stanley Foundation,
April '08
http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/resources.cfm?id=290%20
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