Iran Update
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 116 - 11 April 2008
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SUMMARY
- Iran increases nuclear capacity in spite of sanctions
- China gives IAEA intelligence about Iran's nuclear programme
- Bush offers Iran a "way forward" - the mixed messages
from US officials
- Sarkozy says Iran is the type of threat the new French
nuclear submarine is designer to counter.
In a grand gesture, President Ahmadinejad announced
on April 7 plans to install 6,000 new and modified IR-2 centrifuges
over the next two to three months. Iran's capacity to achieve
this with untested technology and limited production facilities
can at best be described as dubious. Analysts see this move
as an Iranian show of defiance against the third wave of UN
Sanctions, imposed last month. President Ahmadinejad is clearly
playing to the crowd, but his accusations against the
West that they are using the Security Council to hold back
Iran's civil capacity for malign purposes is more widely shared
- here
by Larijani after his recent political success.
The current number and quality of the IR-2 remains a mystery,
and there are contradictions in the reporting. One diplomat
told
Reuters that it is believed Iran modified the design based
upon P2 centrifuges obtained from the AQ Khan network, and
has installed a cascade of more than 164 machines. The Natanz
facility currently has 3,000 P1 centrifuges operating, though
with very mixed results. The new centrifuges are a more advanced
design, are more than twice as efficient and may be less prone
to breaking.
China has given the IAEA information about Iran's nuclear
programme following the IAEA Board meeting in February, according
to diplomatic sources speaking
to the Associated Press.
President Bush gave a recent
interview to Persian-language Radio Farda, and pointed
out that whilst it is Iran's "right" to have a civilian nuclear-power
program there is no need for the country to enrich uranium.
US Defense Secretary Gates told
the Sultan of Oman, that "although we [US] keep all options
open with regards to Iran, we remain committed to a diplomatic
solution".
In an extraordinary interview, CIA Director Hayden said
that he believes Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon.
The reporting of his remarks were telling for several reasons.
First, they were reported as being contradictory to the NIE
to which he signed up last December - which stated the belief
that Iran did not have an active weaponisation program but
remained open on whether Iran was pursuing technology that
would bring them closer to having a military capability. Secondly,
he based his judgement on the observation that Iran was willing
to pay a high price in sanctions to pursue their enrichment,
without accounting for the numerous political drivers involved.
The fact is, decisions associated with nuclear programmes
across the world bear little resemblance to any objective
cost-benefit analysis.
In a speech to dedicate the new French nuclear submarine
'Le Terrible' President Sarkozy cited
Iran as the key threat the new submarine was designed
to counterbalance.
In a retrial, former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian
was
given a two year suspended sentence, a judgement criticized
by former Foreign Minister Hassan Rohani.
Paul Ingram and Ita O'Sullivan, BASIC
STORIES AND LINKS
Iran has threatened legal actions over UN Sanctions, Reuters,
March 26
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSN2634872320080326?
pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Russia Urges Iran to Join Nuclear Talks, Associated Press,
April 1
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hIYBt5PA9hCg85Ze1WxFQB8btuNgD8VOMSJO0
Parsing the Iranian Parliamentary Elections, RFERL, March
17
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/03/
17c779b7-c91c-4770-97d1-2a46754b4751.html
US Alarmed as some Exports veer off course, NY Times,
April 2
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/washington/02UAE.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful
Atom, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, March 27
http://www.npec-web.org/Books/20080327-FallingBehind.pdf
Bush misstates Iran's position on desire for nuclear weapons,
Seattle Times, March 21
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2004296262_iran21.html
Event transcript from the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace event "Dealing with Iran Nuclear Ambitions: what future
strategy for the international community?" Meeting held
March 11
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/3-11-2008_iranpanel2.pdf
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