IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 105 - 21 September 2007

If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback of how useful you find this update. Please e-mail comments by reply to pingram at basicint.org.

An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

• General Petraeus states that a 'proxy war' between Iranian and US forces is already taking place in Iraq
• French war rhetoric triggers a flurry of political concern
• Despite reservations over the Iran-IAEA agreement, and Iran's continued uranium enrichment, international support has increased in the absence of alternatives
• Cracks remain in US administration regarding prospect for diplomatic solution on Iran

In a statement to the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees last week, General Petraeus claimed that Iran was using the Quds Force to turn Shi'ite militias into a "Hezbollah-like force" to "fight a proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces in Iraq". In response, UK forces were sent to police the Iranian-Iraqi border.

However, when the General was questioned by the media, he was unable to produce any evidence of the Iranian Quds Force's involvement in training or the supply of arms to Iraqi militants and stated that, by and large, Quds "have been pulled out of the country". Furthermore, Iraqi-based intelligence officials briefed that the Quds force has deliberately steered clear of direct contact with Shi'ite militia groups to avoid falling foul of the US.

In a significant step towards centre stage, France seized the initiative on Iran. Having identified the possibility of a nuclear Iran as the 'greatest threat' facing the international community, Sarkozy has taken the lead on pushing for EU sanctions against Iran. In a controversial move, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said in an interview on French TV and radio that, "we have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war".

Kouchner's comments unleashed widespread concern. Coming before a visit to Russia - where Kouchner intended to press for fresh sanctions - the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, responded, stating that he was worried that serious consideration was being given to military action. The head of the UN's nuclear agency, El Baradei, once again put his head above the parapet and warned against the increase in "hype" about war with Iran, saying countries should heed the lessons of the build-up to the Iraq conflict. He received a sharp US rebuke and was warned that the IAEA should not meddle in the business of diplomacy.

Israel prompted wild speculation by launching Operation Orchard in which it penetrated deep into Syrian airspace; interpreted variously as an attempt to destroy munitions on their way to Hezbollah or to target a nuclear site in which North Korean technicians are allegedly involved. Adding fuel to the fire, Iran announced that it had plans in place to ensure that, in the 'unlikely event' of an Israeli attack, Tehran would response with air and missile raids.

In spite of continued criticism surrounding the Iran-IAEA agreement, in which Iran has pledged to answer outstanding issues in relation to its nuclear programme, an increase in support has stepped up in some quarters with the UN Secretary General expressing encouragement over the implementation of the deal.

Likewise, the Chinese reaffirmed their desire to seek a peaceful resolution on Iran during a visit by the Iranian Interior Minister, Mostafa Pour-Mohammadis on the 14th of September and expressed hopes that all concerned parties would take a "pragmatic and flexible attitude" towards the agreement, echoing El Baradei's concerns about the increase in 'hype'.

Cracks in the US administration persist over US policy on Iran. Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice has championed a policy of firm diplomacy whilst Vice President Dick Cheney has lent his support to a more militaristic agenda. It appears that, for the time being, diplomacy dominates with Defence Secretary Robert Gates stating: "We always say all options are on the table... But clearly, the diplomatic and economic approach is the one we're pursuing."

Adam Backhouse, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Pentagon's Mideast chief urges Gulf allies to unite against Iran
On a tour of the Gulf this week, the top U.S. military commander for the Middle East is steering the topic away from Iraq and pressing Arab allies to form a more united front against Iran, seen by Washington as the region's long-term threat.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/18/africa/
ME-GEN-Gulf-US-Facing-Iran.php

Proxy war could soon turn to direct conflict, analysts warn
The growing US focus on confronting Iran in a proxy war inside Iraq risks triggering a direct conflict in the next few months, regional analysts are warning.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2169798,00.html

France slammed by Iran after minister warns of war
PARIS (AFP) - A warning from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner that the world has to prepare for a possible war with Iran over its nuclear programme triggered alarm in the Middle East and elsewhere Monday. Iran's official media launched a scathing response to the remarks, made in a broadcast interview Sunday evening, and accused Paris of pandering to the United States.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h2E4FueHFgmM1GImXHiG4vnRc-lQ

Military intervention in Iran would be "catastrophic": Moscow
MOSCOW (AFP) - Any US military intervention in Iran would be a "political error" that would have "catastrophic" consequences, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said in an interview published Tuesday.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8JntTedriS0IqkVEzSOwLVP_GXw

U.S. in no rush to attack Iran -- for now
Despite blunt French talk of possible war with Iran, the United States may for the moment be too entangled in Iraq to turn from diplomatic to military action to curb Tehran's nuclear and regional ambitions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/
idUSL1877737320070918?pageNumber=1

COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANAYLSIS

Iran shrugs, but pressure is growing
Iran's nonchalance in the face of a burgeoning threat of military action can only increase the risk of confrontation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2172204,00.html

Can diplomacy regain upper hand over war?
It is proving a messy week in the attempt to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. In the battle of rhetoric, Iran has even managed to emerge as the moderate voice.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/
bronwen_maddox/article2485316.ece

Cooling The Clash With Iran
Overarching the Middle East like a dark canopy is the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran. The test of wills is sometimes obscured by the daily war news from Iraq, but it has become the main event in the region -- carrying dangers of wider war and also some new opportunities for creative diplomacy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/14/AR2007091402051.html

Bush's 'proxy war' claim over Iran exposed
WASHINGTON - In his prepared statement to the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees last week, General David Petraeus claimed that Iran is using the Quds Force to turn Shi'ite militias into a "Hezbollah-like force" to "fight a proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces in Iraq".
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/II19Ak03.html