IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 104 - 5 September 2007

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SUMMARY

• Contradiction between Ahmadinejad statement and IAEA Report on progress with enrichment
• Continued rumbles over plans for military action
• IAEA Report published, urges Iran to adopt Additional Protocol, IAEA Board to meet next week Sept 10th to 14th
• Rafsanjani elected as Head of Assembly of Experts

Over the weekend President Ahmadinejad claimed that Iran was now operating 3000 centrifuges, contradicting the IAEA Report that has been received by members of the IAEA Board last week. The Supreme Leader later sounded an assertive note that Iran would prevail in its efforts to develop a nuclear programme.

The Sunday Times reported on informal soundings that the Bush Administration is making on the possibility of future military action against Iran, and on a military plan to wipe out Iran's military capability in three days. President Ahmadinejad claimed that such postures were incredible.

The publication last week of the framework agreement between Iran and the IAEA to clear up outstanding ambiguities over Iran's nuclear programme was met with some suspicion in the US and some European capitals. Mohamed ElBaradei said that it could represent the last chance for Iran to engage in transparency. His report to the IAEA Board urges Iran to ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, and said: "Confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme requires that the Agency be able to provide assurances not only regarding declared nuclear material, but, equally important, regarding the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, through the implementation of the Additional Protocol." In response Iranian spokesperson Hosseini said that Iran would not accept the AP until Iran's file was returned from the UN Security Council.

Former President Rafsanjani was elected as Head of the Assembly of Experts; he was already Head of the Expediency Council. This consolidates his power and means that he is in a formidable position in relation to President Ahmadinejad. In another internal reshuffle, General Yahya Rahim Safavi has been replaced as the leader of the Revolutionary Guards by General Mohammad Ali Jafari, previously long-term leader of the Revolutionary Guards ground forces. This comes two weeks after the US suggested it might designate the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organisation. General Safavi has been made a special military advisor to Ayatollah Khamanei, a move that Iranian officials insist is an anticipated promotion.

Paul Ingram, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran announces attaining goal of 3,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment, AP, 02/09
Iran's president claimed that his country is now running 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium for its nuclear program, reaching an Iranian goal that could add momentum to efforts to impose new U.N. sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/03/africa/
ME-GEN-Iran-Nuclear.php

Tehran 'will never bow to any intimidation' on nuclear drive, AFP, September 04, 2007
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged Monday that Iran would never yield to Western pressure over its nuclear program, and it would outsmart "drunken and arrogant" Western opponents in the standoff.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&
article_id=85019

Iran's Ahmadinejad has 'proof' US won't attack, AFP, 03/09
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sought to justify his confidence the United States will not attack Iran, saying the proof comes from his mathematical skills as an engineer and faith in God, the press reported on Monday.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ieXUnhDIbi3vANeVPi9V9XZ5buuQ

Additional Protocol only if nuclear dossier returned to IAEA, IANS, 02/09
Iran will only accept the Additional Protocol of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if the Iranian nuclear dossier is returned from the UN Security Council to the IAEA, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said Sunday.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/070902/43/6k84y.html

Transparency deal may be Iran's last chance - IAEA, Reuters 01/09
A cooperation deal struck last month between Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog offers Tehran what may be its last chance to come clean about its atomic programme, the agency's head Mohamed Elbaradei said.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/070901/137/6k7kz.html

Rafsanjani to Head Key Iran Cleric Body, Ali Akbar Dareini, AP, 04/09
Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani was picked Tuesday to head a key clerical body empowered with choosing or dismissing the country's supreme leader, state media reported, in a vote seen as a setback for hard-liners in Iran's ruling establishment.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/09/04/AR2007090400311.html?hpid=sec-world

Iran's FM meets with NAM ministers, Press TV, 03/09
Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has expressed Tehran's willingness to expand relations with Non-Aligned Movement member states, at a meeting of NAM Foreign Ministers in Tehran
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=21722§ionid=351020101

COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANAYLSIS

Text of the official (restricted) IAEA Report on Iran to the Board of Governors, 30/08, posted on ISIS website
The report confirms that as of 19 August fewer than 2000 centrifuges were operating with UF6 feedstock, that ambiguities over plutonium and HEU contamination had been resolved and the matter closed, but that the focus would now be on resolving the Iranian relationship with the AQ Khan network and the acquisition of P1 and P2 centrifuge technology.
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/IranIAEAreportAugust30.pdf

Will President Bush bomb Iran?, Tim Shipman, Sunday Telegraph, 04/09

This article weighs up the likelihood of Bush taking military action against Iran before he leaves office, in the light of a Heritage Foundation war game, IAEA announcements, and the reaction of different groups to Presidential statements. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/
wiran102.xml&page=3

Pentagon `three-day blitz' plan for Iran, Sarah Baxter, Sunday Times 04/09
THE Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians' military capability in three days, according to a national security expert.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2369001.ece