IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 103 - 3 September 2007

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SUMMARY

• IAEA Agreement with Iran sets framework to resolve outstanding ambiguities over nuclear programme.
• IAEA Secretary-General's report to the Board is distributed to members
• Reports suggest Iran considering suspending construction of reactor at Arak
• Arrests of Iranians in Baghdad, US and Iranian relations suffer.

The IAEA on Monday released report to the IAEA Board, due to meet on 10 September. The IAEA is apparently satisfied that Iran has demonstrated its small-scale experiments with plutonium were not military in nature. The deal has been criticised by US, British and French governments, a number of diplomats and by some non-proliferation experts for being insufficiently demanding of Tehran, for not requiring a reinstatement of the voluntary Additional Protocol, and for taking too long to resolve the ambiguity. There is no mention of the IAEA Board's demand that Iran suspend enrichment activities. The IAEA Secretary-General's report is said to give further details of Iran's cooperation, and an indication that enrichment has slowed down. Olli Heinonen, the IAEA's Safeguard's Chief noted that it was Iran's refusal to be open on these questions in the past that had triggered the sanctions in the first place. He said that Iran must provide clarity over the ambiguities by the year's end. With such an agreement and a more conciliatory report, the US fear is now that Russia and China will block any moves within the UN Security Council to apply a third set of sanctions to Iran.

Earlier this week Jane's Defence Weekly reported that some members of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Iran appear to be considering suspending the construction at Arak of the heavy water reactor. Given the sensitivity of the facility - it is an ideal design for the production of weapons-grade plutonium and likely a more preferable route than uranium enrichment to a nuclear arsenal - this would be a significant confidence-building measure.

Tuesday marked a number of developments that raised the temperature in relations between the US and Iran. US soldiers arrested and detained a group of eight Iranians in Baghdad, including two diplomats, before releasing them without explanation the following day, after complaints from both the Iranian and Iraqi governments. As if to challenge the US President to continue the troop surge within Iraq, President Ahmadinejad said that US influence in the region was on the wane, and that Iran was ready step in to fill the vacuum. Later, in a speech to veterans in Reno, Nevada, President Bush talked of the shadow of a nuclear holocaust over the region, and again accused Iran of supporting the insurgency within Iraq, saying "Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere... We will confront this danger before it is too late... I have authorized our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran's murderous activities." Iran reacted angrily and said that the US should raise their concerns in the trilateral talks with Iraq.

Paul Ingram, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

IAEA: Iranian Cooperation Significant, George Jahn, AP, 30/08
The U.N. nuclear agency said Thursday that Iran was producing less nuclear fuel than expected and praised Tehran for ``a significant step forward'' in explaining past atomic actions that have raised suspicions.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6885596,00.html

Diplomats criticize Iran's deal with UN atom inspectors, Reuters, 28/08
Iran's deal with United Nations inspectors to resolve questions about its nuclear program will fall short of dispelling suspicions about clandestine efforts to build nuclear weapons, according to diplomats here.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/28/africa/iran.php

Ahmadinejad warns of power vacuum in Iraq, says Iran can fill gap, AP, 28/08
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boldly declared Tuesday that U.S. political influence in Iraq is "collapsing rapidly" and that Tehran is ready to help fill any power vacuum.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/08/28/africa/
ME-GEN-Iran-Ahmadinejad-Iraq.php

President Bush Addresses the 89th Annual National Convention of the American Legion, official text, 28/08
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/08/20070828-2.html

COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANAYLSIS

IAEA Information Circular, 27/08
Details of the official communication between Iran and IAEA outlining the transparency framework that may clear up ambiguities in Iran's past nuclear programme.
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/2007/infcirc711.pdf

No Time for Threats, NYT Editorial, 30/ 08
French President Nicolas Sarkozy made the wrong gesture at the wrong time by brandishing the possible use of force against Iran's nuclear weapons program in his first major foreign policy address.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/30/opinion/30thu2.html?
_r=1&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

Wrong-footed at every turn, Dilip Hiro, Guardian, 29/08
In his second major speech on Iraq and the region on Tuesday - with its focus on the alleged depredations of the Iranian regime - the US president, George Bush, found himself wrong-footed by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dilip_hiro/2007/08/
wrong-footed_at_every_turn.html

Iran's Proxy War Against the United States and the Iraqi Government, Weekly Standard, 29/08
Report by Kimberly Kagan outlining allegations that Iranian-backed insurgents account for around half of the attacks against Coalition forces within Iraq. These allegations could be used in coming months to build political support for military action (see Jim Lobe's comment on this at: http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/?p=58). http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/IraqReport06.2.pdf

A Flawed IAEA-Iran Agreement on Resolving Outstanding Issues, David Albright and Jacqueline Shire, ISIS, 28/08
The agreement is an unusual one in several respects, and merits especially close reading... Our assessment is that the document is flawed in important ways.
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/flawedagreement.pdf