IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 101 - 16 August 2007

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SUMMARY

• US to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organisation.
• Iran and the IAEA to have a plan of action by end of August.
• Iran’s regional relations.
• Heritage Foundation Investigation.

The Bush Administration is preparing to classify the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organisation, according to senior administration officials. If the Revolutionary Guard is classed as a terrorist organization it will result in more sanctions against Iran by the US. The administration appears to advocate a tougher stance on Iran but at the same time also hopes to win support from Iranians, President Bush recently said: “My message to the Iranian people is: You can do better than this current government... You don’t have to be isolated. You don’t have to be in a position where you can’t realise your full economic potential.”

Iran is to have an action plan -regarding resolving outstanding questions on its nuclear programme - ready for the IAEA by the end of the month, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry. The Ministry’s spokesperson described talks between Iran and the IAEA as ‘moving forward’. Iran recently allowed an IAEA team into the heavy-water site at Arak. High-level talks between Iran and the IAEA are to recommence on the 20th of August.

President Ahmadinejad has begun a tour of the Middle East and Asia in an effort to strengthen Iran’s regional relations. The tour, which began in Afghanistan, will end at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s summit in Kyrgyzstan.

The Heritage Foundation, a Washington based think-tank has released a project simulating the results of a hypothetical, week-long crisis with Iran. The project is “a proof-of-principle investiga­tion that combined computer modelling and gaming to capture how U.S. decisions during a crisis might affect how global energy markets and the U.S. econ­omy adjust to sudden and significant disruptions of oil supplies.” The project, which predicts grave consequences for the US economy, is available on the Heritage Foundation website.

Ita O’Sullivan, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

Ahmadinejad says Iran won't give up nuclear plans, Ynet.co.il, 04/ 08
Iran will not give up its atomic energy programme, President Ahmadinejad said in remarks published on Saturday.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3433520,00.html

In the Debate Over Iran, More Calls for a Tougher U.S. Stance, Washington Post, 09/08
Fourteen months after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice offered to talk to Iran, the failure of carrot-and-stick diplomacy to block Tehran's nuclear and regional ambitions is producing a new drumbeat for bolder action, including the possible use of force.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/08/08/AR2007080802554.html

Iran says US is too stretched to attack it, Gulf News, 31/ 07
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told a German magazine that the United States has too many problems in Iraq to become involved in armed conflict with Iran.
http://archive.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10142746.html

Bill supports divestment in Iran, World News.com, 31/ 07
The House voted Tuesday to give legal protections to investors and state and local governments who decide to curtail investments in international corporations doing business in Iran and Sudan.
http://article.wn.com/view/2007/07/31/Bill_supports_divestment_in_Iran_r/

Iran has no debt to Russia for Bushehr power plant, Global Security.org, 30/ 07
Iran has met all its commitments to Russia for the Bushehr nuclear power plant and has no debt to Moscow in this regard, Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said on Monday.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/
iran/2007/iran-070730-irna03.htm

Iran Threatens Illegal Steps, Freemarketnews.com, 25/ 07
Iran threatens illegal steps including voiding non-proliferation treaty if more UN sanctions are imposed on its nuclear program.
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=46261

COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Iran’s soft power pays off , UPI.com, 14/ 08
At a time when the United States is widely regarded in the Middle East as a military aggressor and faces plummeting popularity around the world, Iran is taking advantage of the situation to boost its own image and forge closer ties with its neighbors.
http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/
Analysis/2007/08/14/analysis_irans_soft_power_pays_off/2214/

How To Talk The Talk With Iran, Globalvoices Online. Org. 30/ 07
William Beeman, Professor of Anthropology at the University of Minnesota, says face-to-face talks between Iran and the United States have a good chance of success if the Bush administration knows how to handle their part of the exchange.
http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/2007/07/30/
iranhow-to-talk-the-talk-with-iran/