IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 98 - 11 July 2007

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SUMMARY

• Tunneling Near Iranian Nuclear site
• Iranian enrichment slowing down- heralding a time-out?
• US: Iran becoming increasingly dangerous- more pressure
• PEW poll findings

Satellite photographs of an area near to the Natanz enrichment plant show what appears to be the construction of a mountain tunnel complex. Some believe that this mountain complex may be an attempt to thwart military strikes by safely storing converted and enriched uranium along with sensitive equipment. On Friday, an IAEA spokeswoman said: "we have been in contact with the Iranian authorities about this, and we have received clarifications," but failed to elaborate further. This ISIS report and images cover the tunnel construction in great detail.

IAEA inspectors visited Natanz last week. Mohammed ElBaradei, IAEA Director, commenteaianz last rted and enriched uranium along with sensitive equipment beyond the reach of aerial attackd after a Governors meeting: "without going into detail you could say that there is a fairly marked slowdown. It is not a full-size freeze, but it is a marked slowdown." It is unclear whether this is down to technical constraints or is a diplomatic signal to head-off further sanctions by the UN Security Council.

The US is still looking to persuade Europe to intensify pressure on Iran. Last week, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described Iran as "a very dangerous state with very dangerous policies". However, Robert Cooper, an advisor to EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said recently, "we would like to prevent escalations of sanctions".

Two polls released this week give insight into global and Iranian attitudes to the Iranian nuclear programme. The PEW global attitudes survey 2007, released this earlier this week, detailed the attitudes of 47 countries to the Iranian nuclear programme. Chapter 4 of the survey focuses on Iran and finds that: "Iran's image remains negative throughout much of the world, and has eroded significantly over the past year in several countries, including Turkey, Egypt and Indonesia. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to inspire little confidence internationally. However, the poll finds a broad divide in how Sunni and Shia Muslims view Iran and its controversial leader."

Terror Free Tomorrow conducted a poll of 1000 Iranian adults and found that 29% of Iranians felt that developing nuclear weapons was a very important priority for the government. 52% favoured the development of nuclear weapons in the belief that the people of Iran would live in a safer world if Iran possessed nuclear weapons. However, 80% of Iranians favour Iran providing full inspections and a guarantee not to develop or possess nuclear weapons in return for outside aid.

Ita O'Sullivan, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

Talabani urges Iran to help Iraq on militias, Alsumaria, 07/ 07
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani urged Iran to help rein in militias responsible for sectarian violence in Iraq.
http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News/
1-4999-Talabani-urges-Iran-to-help-Iraq-on-militias.html

Saudi FM stresses peaceful settlement of Iran's nuclear issue, Indianmusslims.info, 06/ 07

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal on Friday emphasized settlement of Iran's nuclear problem through peaceful ways.
http://www.indianmuslims.info/news/2007/jul/06/
saudi_fm_stresses_peaceful_settlement_irans_nuclear_issue.html

Belarusian leader promises weapons cooperation with Iran, Ynet, 05/ 07
Belarus' president promised aid to Iran's military Thursday, and held talks with the visiting Iranian defence chief.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3421828,00.html

Iraq's PM Maliki to visit Iran, Payvand.com, 05/ 07
Iraq's prime minister will head a high ranking delegation to visit Tehran soon to discuss joint venture projects with Iran.
http://www.payvand.com/news/07/jul/1063.html

Iran oil capacity seen at risk, CNN, 08/ 07
UN Security Council sanctions against Iran are deterring oil investors
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/08/news/international/
bc.iran.oil.reut/index.htm?section=money_latest

Prodi says Italian economy suffers after Iran sanctions, Ynet, 09/ 07
Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi said Monday that the Italian economy suffered from UN-imposed sanctions on Iran.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3423094,00.html

Iran arrests 20 on spying allegations, Yahoo, 09/ 07
Iran has arrested 20 people - including some foreigners - near the border with Iraq and accused them of belonging to a spy network, the state-run news agency reported Monday.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070709/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_arrests

Iran to train Iraqi diplomats, United Press International, 08/ 07
Iran Sunday announced the development of an educational program to train new diplomats from neighboring Iraq.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/07/08/
iran_to_train_iraqi_diplomats/5006/

Tehran Says Iranians Held in Iraq by U.S. Complain of Conditions, NY Times, 09/ 07
Iran said Sunday that the five Iranians detained by American forces in Iraq complained about poor conditions during their meeting with the Iranian ambassador this weekend at an American military detention facility.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/09/world/middleeast/
09iran.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

A Gauge of Iran's Hand in Iraq, Christian Science Monitor, 05/ 07
Iran on Wednesday denounced as "false and ridiculous claims" new US accusations that a Lebanese Hezbollah special operations chief arrested in Iraq was working against US troops on behalf of Iran's elite Qods Force.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0705/p06s01-wome.html

Missiles could cripple the Navy, Washington Times, 07/ 07
There is talk that President Bush may order naval forces in the Persian Gulf to attack Iran. What would happen if he did?
http://washingtontimes.com/article/20070707/
TECHNOLOGY02/107070059/1020

COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

U.S.-Russia Relations Once More Revolving around Nuclear, Council on Foreign Relations, 03/ 07
The overall U.S.-Russia relationship is "incoherent," but notes the two countries are putting increased emphasis once again on nuclear issues.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/13719/sestanovich.html

Talking to Iran, International Herald Tribune (letter), 06/ 07
The only effective strategy in Iran is to drop pre-conditions and engage in "broad, high-level talks."
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/06/opinion/edlet.php

Iran's Proxy War, Wall Street Journal, 06/ 07
Tehran is on the offensive against us throughout the Middle East. Will Congress respond?
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110010302