IRAN UPDATE
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 97 - 5 July 2007
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SUMMARY
This week
- Reports of a possible 'time-out' proposal
- IAEA team soon to visit to discuss outstanding question
- US and EU further claims that Iran is aiding Iraqi insurgents
and Hamas
- Bush and Putin united on Iran- Russia resume talks on reactor
with Iran
- Iranian reaction to petrol restrictions
- Reactor ready by October
- Iran-India and Pakistan close to signing gas 'peace-pipeline'
deal
A flurry of news reports point to the possibility of
breakthrough in the nuclear negotiations. On July 2 a spokesperson
for the Iranian foreign Ministry said
that Iran was reviewing a temporary, time-limited time out proposal,
reported by AP to have been made by the P5 and Germany, which would
involve the Iranians suspending expansion of their enrichment
facilities in return for the P5 suspending consideration of further
UN sanctions. "Suspending enrichment is not on the agenda", Iranian
foreign ministry spokesman Mohamamd Ali Hosseini
told reporters though members of the P5 sources briefed that
suspension remained the ultimate objective.
A team of IAEA inspectors is
expected in Iran shortly to follow up on an agreement between
Ali Larijani and Mohamed ElBaradei to clear up longstanding
questions about the Iranian nuclear programme. The US was reported
to still be
sceptical about the possibility of a breakthrough, believing
this to be a stalling tactic in advance of Security Council
discussions on tighter sanctions. On June 30th Iran's supreme
leader Ayatollah Khamenei
dismissed the threat of more sanctions.
US accusations took a new turn as officials
blamed Iran for assisting attacks against US soldiers by using
veterans of the Lebanese Islamic militia group Hezbollah as a
"proxy" to train, arm and plan assaults by an array of Shiite
militant cells in Iraq. Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad
Najjar rapidly rebutted
these charges. Javier Solana, the EU chief negotiator with Iran,
has hinted
that Iran helped with the recent Hamas takeover of Gaza and attacks
on army and EU peacekeepers in Lebanon.
President Bush has
used a high-profile visit by President Putin to the US to
ask for Russian support for a major escalation of sanctions
from the UN Security Council on the Iranian nuclear programme. Bush
is quoted as saying:
"We're close on recognising that we've got to work together to send
a common message". This statement came just two days after Iran and
Russia resumed
talks about the completion of the Bushehr nuclear plant.
Iran's new petrol rationing has sparked
violent protests and anti-government
tension in Tehran. Although Iran has a plentiful supply of oil, it
has inadequate refining capacity, so that it has to import refined
petroleum. Some have voiced fears than Iran
may reduce oil exports, and this may push the price to $100 a
barrel, but this does not appear a realistic possibility in the
short term.
The "Bushehr power plant is to switch on with a capacity of
1,000 megawatts in October" according to
Iran's Energy Minister Parviz Fattah. This will be Iran's first
fully-functioning nuclear power reactor.
India, Pakistan and Iran are close to
signing an agreement on transporting natural gas from Iran to
India via Pakistan through the so-called 'peace-pipeline'. The
deal, which had reportedly been held up due to a payments dispute
between Iran and India, but which also could have been affected by
strong diplomatic opposition from the United States, now appears to
be back on track. Iran
aims to have the pipeline functioning by 2011. Iran has also signed a deal to
export gas to Oman. President Ahmadinejad offered support to
visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez over a Latin
American initiative to counter U.S.-led efforts for free trade in
the region
Ita O'Sullivan, BASIC
STORIES AND LINKS
Rationing Fuels Discontent in Iran, Washington Post, 01/
07.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who swept to power promising that
every family would benefit from the nation's oil wealth, now faces
growing domestic discontent over newly imposed fuel rationing and
skyrocketing consumer prices.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/06/30/AR2007063000999.html
Iran oil exports at risk in UK ship sanctions plan, Reuters,
29/ 07
A British proposal to target Iran's national shipping lines under
a draft U.N. sanctions resolution could temporarily curb Tehran's
ability to export oil to world markets, maritime sources said on
Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL26967420070626
Iran Has New Conditions for U.S. Talks, Associated Press, 27/
06
Iran said Wednesday it would consider "with a positive point of
view" an Iraqi request for a new round of Iranian-American talks
about security in Iraq.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_US_IRAQ?
SITE=SCGRE&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Iran criticizes Blair's appointment as Mideast envoy, CNews,
01/ 06
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman on Sunday criticized the recent
appointment of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as an
international Mideast envoy, but expressed hope that his successor
would relieve tensions between the two countries.
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/
2007/07/01/4305257-ap.html
Iran launches own 'English' channel, Scotsman.com, 27/
06
Iran's state broadcasting company is launching an English-speaking
satellite TV channel to counter the West's influence in covering
news. ... The 24-hour PRESS TV news channel said its goal was to
"break the global media stranglehold of western outlets."
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1001062007
US House approves a law to sanction foreign oil companies
dealing with, Alsumaria.tv, 27/ 06
The US House Foreign Affairs Committee approved a law suggestion
that calls the US Administration to penalize the foreign oil
companies that deal with Iran. This law targets implicitly European
companies such as Total. The Draft law adopted by the committee
with a majority of 73 votes against one.
http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/World-News/2-4703-
US-House-approves-a-law-to-sanction-foreign-oil-companies-
dealing-with-Iran.html
COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
Politics and Policies: No Illusions on Iran, UPI, 29/
07
A comparison of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear
programmes
http://www.upi.com/International_Intelligence/Analysis/
2007/06/29/politics__policies_no_illusions_on_iran/7324/
A New Strategy for Iran, Washington Times, 30/ 06
A new strategy is needed to effectuate regime change in Iran.
Experience and history discredit the longstanding mix of escalating
economic sanctions combined with $75 million publicly appropriated
by Congress for regime change proponents.
http://washingtontimes.com/article/20070630/
COMMENTARY/106300002
US House Foreign Affairs Panel passes Iran Sanctions Bill,
Blogspot.com, 27/ 06
A key House panel Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to pass a
wide-ranging bill that would toughen U.S. sanctions on Iran and on
companies that invest in the country.
http://noggr.blogspot.com/2007/06/
us-house-foreign-affairs-panel-passes.html
Iran's ambition and America's fear, abrn.info, 28/ 06
If there is an action that should be taken to end this Iran
nuclear weapon building by America, is by Washington starts to
dismantling her own nuclear weapons and forces other nations that
had them to.
http://www.ptdportal.com/post/3/1160034037/
iran_s_ambition_and_america_s_fear.html
Iran's invite: A stalemate breaker or another stonewall?
Bloggingstocks.com, 26/ 06
It's an invitation that may sway some to think that Iran is
cooperating regarding its nuclear program...or it may represent
just another delay tactic by Iran toward the international
community.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/26/
irans-invite-a-stalemate-breaker-or-another-stonewall/
The Iranian nuclear threat: Israel's options under international
law, Houston Journal of International Law, December 07.
Few question the conventional wisdom that Iran is well on its way
to building a nuclear weapon. Yet even fewer acknowledge that once
Iran masters the nuclear fuel cycle, the so-called "point of no
return," this path will be irreversible. Among the consequences
that would follow, this Article focuses on the two particular
threats that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose to Israel: the
existential threat of a nuclear strike and the threat of an
undeterrable and relentless escalation in anti-Israel terrorism
Note: You have to purchase article- an abstract is available
free
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-6288428/
The-Iranian-nuclear-threat-Israel.html
Iran Has A Message. Are We Listening? Washington Post, 01/
06
It is this impression of inevitably clashing interests that Rezai
was trying hard to dispel. He pointed out that his is the only
country that can help Washington control Shiite militias in Iraq,
slow the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan and tame Hezbollah's
still-dangerous presence in Lebanon all at once.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/06/29/AR2007062902318.html
Our Family Hostage Crisis, NY Times, 27/ 06
Iran's judiciary says it expects to announce a decision this week
or next in the case of my wife, Haleh Esfandiari, and two other
Iranian-Americans, Kian Tajbakhsh and Ali Shakeri, who have been
held in solitary confinement at Tehran's Evin prison since early
May. The fate of these detainees could be resolved by Iran's
government in a number of ways.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/27/opinion/
27bakhash.html?th&emc=th
Muzzling dissent and moving to a war footing, the Economist,
28/ 06
The government's opponents, real or imaginary-be they secular
liberals, trade unionists, campaigners for women's rights,
immodestly dressed youths, disgruntled ethnic minorities, even
dissenting clergymen-have recently been subjected to a string of
arrests, harassment and threats.
http://www.economist.com/world/africa/
displaystory.cfm?story_id=9410613
A yes or a no- Diplomacy for diplomacy's sake? the Economist,
28/ 06
If Iran were to decide to end its high-wire defiance of the UN
Security Council and open negotiations for a diplomatic solution to
the stand-off over its nuclear work-telling all about its nuclear
past and suspending production of potentially bomb-useable uranium
and plutonium-it would need to find a ladder to climb down on.
http://www.economist.com/world/africa/
displaystory.cfm?story_id=9413669
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