IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 96 - 27 June 2007

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SUMMARY

This week

• This week Iran's talks with the IAEA
• Latest talks with EU were "constructive"
• Recognition of Iran's right to enrich for peaceful means
• Israel preparing to strike - once Iran reaches point of no return

Last week

• IAEA warns against attacking Iran
• Iran uses 'front' companies to avoid sanctions
• Gates claims that the Iranian government knew of weapon shipments to the Taliban

This Week

After cancelling a meeting a fortnight ago, IAEA and Iran officials finally met to discuss the Iranian nuclear programme. The meeting was described as “quite satisfying”. In the wake of the meeting, Iran has invited a team from the IAEA to come to Tehran to draw up a plan of action “for resolving outstanding issues”. An IAEA spokesperson said a team would leave for Iran “as early as practicable”. The US remains skeptical about Iranian-IAEA cooperation.

Javier Solana, EU chief negotiator on the Iranian nuclear programme, said his talks on the 23rd June with Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, were constructive and that Iran wanted to settle the dispute but refused to stop enriching. Solana is expected to meet soon with ElBaradei in light of his talks with Larijani.

Mohammad Ali Hosseini, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, claimed that the EU recognises Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Russia and Malaysia had just released a joint statement which called the Iranian nuclear programme complex but acknowledged that Iran has “an inherent right to ... atomic energy for peaceful purposes.”

The Israeli Air Force is conducting exercises in preparation for an air strike on Iran, once Iran passes the point of no return, according to a report released on the 22nd June.

Last Week

According to the IAEA’s Secretary General, Iran’s nuclear behaviour merits serious concern that it will probably create a nuclear weapon capability,. However, Mohamed El Baradei also warned that a military attack against Iran would be “an act of madness” and that the current “brewing confrontation” “urgently needs to be defused”.

Iranian authorities are creating ‘front’ companies in order to allow companies targeted by US and UN Security Council sanctions to continue operating, according to the National Council of Resistance of Iran - an exiled Iranian dissident group.

US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, has said that “the flow of illicit weapons from Iran to Taliban fighters in Afghanistan has reached such large quantities that it suggests that the shipments are taking place with the knowledge of the government in Tehran”. This statement came weeks after the US and Iran met to discus security in Iraq and Iran’s role in regional security.

STORIES AND LINKS

Text of a News Week interview with Ali Larjani, MSNBS website, 21/ 06
Iran’s top nuclear negotiator responds to questions around Iran’s involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, with Hamas and Hezbollah, and on Iran’s nuclear programme.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19355051/site/newsweek/?
from=rssL&print=1&displaymode=1098

ElBaradei: Report on Iran nuclear ability based on realities, Global Security website, 23/ 06
Head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei said on Friday his latest report on Iran's peaceful nuclear activities and its ability to enrich uranium was based on realities that needed to be explicitly recognised.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/
2007/iran-070623-irna01.htm

Weapons Convoy from Iran Reported, Washington Times, 22/ 06
A police commander for three provinces near the Iranian border says Iran is arming Taliban fighters.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20070622/FOREIGN/106220087/1003

U.S. Refuses to Free 5 Captured Iranians until At Least October, Washington Post, 21/ 06
The United States will not release five Iranians detained in a U.S. military raid in northern Iraq until at least October, despite entreaties from the Iraqi government and pressure from Iran, U.S. officials said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2007/06/20/AR2007062001456.html?nav=rss_world

Iran says zero chance of US attack, Defence Talk website, 25/ 07
A top Iranian security official said on Saturday that there was "zero chance" of a US attack on Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions, the state IRNA news agency reported.
http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/defence/
Iran_Says_Zero_Chance_Of_US_Attack30012453.php

Iran cuts amount of U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves, Associated Press, 24/ 06
Iran has cut in half the amount of U.S. dollars in its foreign exchange reserves over the past several months in another attempt to weaken Washington's influence on the Islamic country's economy, state-run television reported Sunday.
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/06/24/2736248.htm

Palestinian intelligence chief accuses Iran of training, funding Hamas militants, Israel News, 24/ 06
The Palestinian intelligence chief on Sunday accused Iran of close involvement in Hamas' violent takeover of Gaza, saying Tehran funded the Islamic militants and trained hundreds of them.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3416783,00.html

NATO has no problems with Iran, Turkish Daily News, 21 / 06
“NATO does not have problems with Iran; the only thing that we are concerned about is Tehran's nuclear program,” said NATO Secretary General's special representative to the South Caucasus Robert Simmons in the Armenian capital Yerevan.
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=76400

Oil a weapon in Nuclear Standoff: Iran, India Times, 20/ 06
Iran refused to rule out using oil supplies as a weapon in the standoff over its nuclear programme, saying Washington had never excluded attacking the Islamic republic.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/
Oil_a_weapon_in_N-standoff_Iran/rssarticleshow/2135032.cms

Iranian Paper: Iran Will Build Nuclear Facilities "Far From Eyes Of IAEA", Iran Daily Kayhan, 20/ 06
In an editorial, the Iranian daily ‘Kayhan’ [this article does not appear to be available online], associated with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, emphasized that following a reduction in Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran would be erecting new nuclear facilities far from the eyes of the agency and of the West, and would announce their existence only 180 days before their activation (as required under their Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement)
http://www.thememriblog.org/blog_personal/en/1944.htm

"Grave concern" by US over Iran's nuclear defiance, Yahoo news, 12/ 06
The United States expressed "grave concern" Tuesday over Iran's defiance in ramping up its nuclear capability amid new estimates by the UN atomic agency that the Islamic republic could have 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by December.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070612/pl_afp/usirannuclearpolitics_070612184749
&printer=1;_ylt=AghmTOmWeZZ8F2oQZ..GefmtOrgF

Iran Strategy Stirs Debate at White House, New York Times, 16/ 06
A year after President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced a new strategy toward Iran, a behind-the-scenes debate has broken out within the administration over whether the approach has any hope of reining in Iran’s nuclear program.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/16/washington/16diplo.html?
_r=1&bl=&ei=5087%0A&en=9787e6bdefb10c60&ex=1182225600&
adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=
1182172683-3ppcqMOlklDlEZX1pXYCcQ

Sphere Of Influence, US news and World Report website, 17/ 06
In western Afghanistan, the United States tries to counter Iran's deep ties.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070617/25afghan.htm

Iran making ‘progress’ in uranium enrichment, AFP, 13/ 06
The UN atomic agency thinks Iran could have 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by December, a significant rise in nuclear capability likely to fuel fears that Tehran seeks nuclear weapons, diplomats said yesterday.
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=
World_News&month=June2007&file=World_News2007061314253.xml

Iran ready to pay price for safeguarding nuclear rights, People.cn website, 13/ 06
A senior Iranian member of parliament said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic is ready to pay the price for safeguarding its nuclear rights, the official IRNA news agency reported.
http://english.people.com.cn/200706/13/eng20070613_383625.html

Iran Set to Finish Probe and To Charge or Free Detainees, Washington Post, 13/ 06
Iran will complete its investigation of the Americans imprisoned or detained in Tehran this week and decide whether to try them for "crimes against national security" or free them, the spokesman for Iran's judiciary said yesterday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2007/06/12/AR2007061200311.html?sub=new

Iran denies threat to hit Gulf states if US attacks from them, Daily Star, 12/ 06
A former Iranian defense minister dismissed as "baseless" Monday a report quoting him as saying Iran would attack Gulf countries used as a launch pad for a US strike on Iran.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?
edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=82940

COMMENTS, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Iranian centrifuge construction, Verificationthoughts Blogspot, 15/06
Andreas Persbo expresses scepticism about calculations that Iran could have 10,000 centrifuges by November.
http://verificationthoughts.blogspot.com/index.html

Two Agendas: Why Iran, U.S. Stand Far Apart, Wall Street Journal, 25/ 07
Tehran seeks end to bid to destabilize regime; Washington wants Insurgent backing in Iraq to stop.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118273249233846632.html?
mod=rss_whats_news_us

British draft proposes new UN sanctions on Iran, Reuters Alerts, 23/ 06
Iran's airlines and ships could be denied landing and transit rights and two more of its banks could have their assets frozen under informal proposals by Britain for a new UN sanctions resolution.
http://lite.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N22162350.htm

Yes, The Mideast Matters, LA Times, 18/ 06
Divide and rule was an old maxim of Britain's empire. In the Middle East today, there's certainly no shortage of division. But who is ruling as a result?
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-oe-ferguson
18jun18,1,5933130.column?track=rss&ctrack=1&cset=true

Iran’s Nuclear Program (letter), New York Times, 14/ 06
Your call for a “full-court sanctions press” on Iran for refusing to forfeit its legal right to an independent nuclear fuel cycle fully monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency is misguided.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/opinion/l14iran.html

Brown's bane will be getting dragged into an American attack on Iran, The Guardian, 13/06
Brown's bane will be getting dragged into an American attack on Iran: if he is not going to suffer Blair's fate with Iraq, his most important foreign policy task will be dissuading Washington.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2101521,00.html

Playing the Iran confrontation, Khaleej Times, 12/ 06
What if, contrary to the received wisdom, it was shown that nuclear weapons played no role in the surrender of Japan at the end of World War
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
xfile=data/opinion/2007/June/opinion_June47.xml§ion=opinion&col