IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 94 - 6 June 2007

If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback of how useful you find this update. Please e-mail comments by reply to pingram at basicint.org.

An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

This week

• Too late to stop the Iranian nuclear programme
• Update on talks
• Iranian statements prior to G8 summit
• Is Iran fuelling conflicts in neighbouring states?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said it is too late to stop the Iranian nuclear programme. Other Iranian officials have released similar statements, claiming a third round of UN Security Council sanctions would make no difference. Iran did promise to agree to strengthened IAEA safeguards if no further sanctions were imposed. The US administration has been divided in its response to these statements from Iran. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has advocated diplomacy but Secretary of Defence Robert Gates would not rule out the use of military action against Iran. Gates also insisted that stringer penalties were needed against Iran "right now". Iran has responded by pledging "severe" retaliation if attacked.

Talks about Iran's nuclear programme took place on June 5 between the EU High Representative Javier Solana, and the German Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier. Iran's nuclear programme is expected to be discussed the following day at the G8 summit. Little progress was made last week in talks between Solana and Iran's chief nuclear policy negotiator, Ali Larijani, though the two will meet again.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday: "with God's help, the countdown button for the destruction of the Zionist regime has been pushed by the hands of the children of Lebanon and Palestine". The French Foreign Minister called the comment "unacceptable". Ali Larijani called US plans to put missile interceptors in Poland, to protect from an Iranian threat, "the joke of the year", pointing out that Iranian missiles would not be capable of travelling that far. This claim echoes fears expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin who sees this as a veiled threat to the integrity of Russia's Deterrent. The Iranian and missile defence issues are likely to feature strongly at the G8.

A debate has erupted about the extent to which Iran is stoking conflicts in the Middle-East and Asia by supplying both arms and troops. Afghan President, Hamid Karzai acknowledged that Iranian munitions were being used by the Taliban, but highlighted that there was no proof the Iranian government was involved. A BASIC report exploring the question of Iranian Support for Violence in Iraq has been one of the sources mentioned including: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty; Washington Post; RTTNews as they debate the issue.

STORIES AND LINKS

US and Russia common interest in Iran's nuclear programme, New York Times, 05/06
The US and Russia have a common interest in slowing Iran's ability to produce nuclear fuel.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/05/world/europe/05russia.html?
_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin

Americans in Iran Accused of Spying, Washington Post, 30/ 05
Tehran Announces formal charges against three, denies holding fourth
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2007/05/29/AR2007052900303.html?referrer=email

Talk to foreigners and we will view you as a spy, Iran warns academics, The Guardian, 31/05
Iran's powerful intelligence ministry has stepped up its war of nerves with the west by telling the country's academics they will be suspected of spying if they maintain contact with foreign institutions or travel abroad to international conferences.
http://education.guardian.co.uk/higher/worldwide/
story/0,,2091909,00.html

Bush Calls on Iran to Release Detained U.S. Citizens, Washington Post, 02/06
President Bush lashed out at Iran yesterday for detaining American citizens and called for them to be freed "immediately and unconditionally
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/06/01/AR2007060100982.html?nav=rss_world

Rice Rejects Link of Iran Arrests and Captures of Guards in Iraq, New York Times, 29/ 05
Condoleezza Rice on Tuesday rejected linking Iran's charges against three Iranian-Americans in Tehran to the Bush administration's capture of members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Iraq.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/30/washington/30rice.html?
_r=1&oref=slogin

F-14 Parts, anyone?, Business Week, 11/ 06
How Iran obtains restricted military technology from the Defense Dept.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/
07_24/b4038041.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Iraq's Sadrists follow Hezbollah's path as Tehran's allies in Iran's 'great game', SaudiDebate.com, 23/05
The success of Iran's policy in Lebanon, where the Islamic Republic exerts extensive influence through its local Hezbollah ally, has raised the question of whether Iran can repeat the same experience in war-torn Iraq. This article looks at the linkages between al-Sadr and Iran.
http://www.saudidebate.com/index.php?option=com_content&
task=view&id=760&Itemid=121

Next Step on Iran, Washington Post, 27/ 05
"As the U.N. Security Council's latest deadline for Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment passed last week, U.N. inspectors reported that 2,100 centrifuges were operating or under construction at the Natanz plant, more than triple the number of three months ago."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/05/26/AR2007052600805.html

Jaw to jaw, The Guardian, 29/ 07
"It was only after a prolonged tussle between pragmatists and hardliners that the regime decided to participate in the talks - and heaven knows what was happening in Iran. But, for once, the US vice president Dick Cheney's band of neo-conservatives were outgunned by the combined forces of the State Department, the CIA and the Pentagon."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2090059,00.html

Symbolic shift for the doves, The Guardian, 29/ 07
"Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Iraq, had a complex task at yesterday's historic talks with Iran. He had to square various factions in Washington by appearing tough on the Islamic republic while not slamming the door on future meetings."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2090045,00.html