IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 93 - 31 May 2007

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SUMMARY

This week

• US- Iranian talks
• Alleged US spy networks in Iran
• A tougher stance on Iran's nuclear programme
• Iran's neighbours seek nuclear power

Last week

• The IAEA Report
• Iran's nuclear know-how
• Iran's regional relations
• Iran and the US

This week

The US and Iran held diplomatic talks on Monday for the first time in 27 years. The talks were focused on the security challenges in Iraq and lasted four hours. Iran has offered to help train and equip the Iraqi military. The US attempted to raise the issue of Iran ' fuelling sectarian violence' but Iranian officials refused to discuss the issue. A second meeting is to take place within the next month.

Prompting some cautious optimism, the White House announced that a special committee, set up last year to coordinate aggressive actions against Iran and Syria, had been disbanded.

However, the Iraq talks took place in the shadow of a heavy US navy presence in the Persian Gulf (last Thursday, two weeks of unannounced US war games commenced a few miles off Iran's coast, involving two battle carrier groups, an assault ship and landing craft, and 17,000 marines and sailors), a US-led push for further UN sanctions against Iran and allegations of US spy networks in Iran.

The White House has called for tougher sanctions against Iran following the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme released last week. David Cameron, leader of Britain's main opposition party, was quoted as saying that "we have a year to deal with Iran" and that he does not rule out the need for military force to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons. IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei estimated that it would take 3-8 years for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, if there were no constraints or hiccups in their programme.

Iranian officials have accused the US of setting up spy networks in Iran to create civil unrest. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has issued the US with a letter of protest, via the Swiss embassy in Tehran. Iran announced that the US scholar, Haleh Esfandiari and two other Iranian-Americans have officially been charged with spying on Iran. The charges were rejected as ludicrous by US groups, including those such as the National Iranian American Council who have been campaigning against military action on Iran.

Iran's neighbouring countries are expanding their civilian nuclear power. Iran has offered to help them acquire and use the necessary technology.

Last week

The IAEA released a report late last Wednesday on 'the implementation of NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council Resolutions in Iran'. Iran is testing its uranium enrichment cascades and still hasn't responded to longstanding IAEA requests for information on various subjects. Section A4 outlines what additional safeguards Iran has agreed to. The US has said the IAEA report backs its moves to impose more sanctions.

The deputy head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Mohammad Saeedi, has announced plans for the Iranian construction of a nuclear power plant. He also said that Iran will have its own nuclear fuel assembly line and electricity production in five years, and will join the club of countries that build nuclear plants in the next ten years. Iranian officials have also declared that the Natanz facility, which currently has 1,600 active centrifuges, will soon have 3,000 operating.

Iran's regional relations seem strained this week. Iran has been warned by both Jordan and Saudi Arabia (both US allies) against misusing its influence in the region and was accused of facilitating violence. Iran was hoping its Arab neighbours would support its nuclear programme. A poll in Israel showed that a majority of Israelis supported US intervention against Iran, in spite of a statement from Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, saying Iran had no plans to attack Israel.

Iran and the US are to meet shortly to discuss security in Iraq. Both countries have stated that Iran's nuclear programme will be strictly off the agenda. Iran will also be avoiding the issue of Haleh Esfandiar, the American-Iranian scholar detained last December as she tried to leave Iran. Iran declared that the US must not meddle that they believe Mrs. Esfandiar was involved in fomenting 'soft regime-change' in Iran. Colleagues of Mrs Esfandiar responded to the announcement with incredulity. Her arrest has been criticised internationally.

STORIES AND LINKS

Russia 'disappointed' by Iran nuclear policies, Defence Talk website, 29/05
Russia said Monday it was greatly disappointed by Iran's nuclear policies after a critical report on them by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency last week.
http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/wmd/
Russia_disappointed_by_Iran_nuclear_policies170012061.php

Iran Lifts Ban on Al-Jazeera, Free Market News website, 28/ 05
Iran will allow al-Jazeera to resume its presence in Iran.
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=42259

Swiss told to stay out of Iran nuclear crisis, NZZ Online, 21/ 05
The former American ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, has called the Swiss plan to end the Iranian nuclear standoff farcical.
http://www.nzz.ch/2007/05/21/eng/article7838757.html

Tough one for India: how to vote on friend Iran's nuclear programme, Yahoo, 20/ 05
India is debating a response to an extremely toughly worded draft resolution by the IAEA. Will India head to Western demands or stand-by an old ally?
http://in.news.yahoo.com/070519/48/6g0al.html

IPI Pipeline Talks to Resume, Iran Daily, 20/ 05
New round of talks between Iran, India and Pakistan on the so-called 'peace pipeline' is to be held next week in Tehran.
http://www.iran-daily.com/1386/2847/html/economy.htm

Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq, The Guardian, 22/05
Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2085192,00.html

This story is then questioned the next day in the paper by Dr Ian Davis, co-director of BASIC, asks where the evidence to support US claims about Iranian involvement in Iraq is. http://www.guardian.co.uk/letters/story/0,,2085720,00.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Messing up the Mullahs, New York Post, 29/ 05
"According to a news account supposedly based on a leak from inside the government, President Bush recently signed off on a classified intelligence "finding," authorizing the CIA to undertake a non-lethal covert-action program to destabilize Iran's nearly out-of-control government. If true, it's about time."
http://www.nypost.com/seven/05292007/postopinion/
opedcolumnists/messing_up_the_mullahs_opedcolumnists_
peter_brookes.htm

Dealing With Iran, the Wall Street Journal, 26/05
An Interview with Benjamin Netanyahu. Note: you must subscribe to read this article; a free online trial subscription is available.
http://online.wsj.com/public/search/page/3_0466.html?
KEYWORDS=dealing+with+iran&x=11&y=3

Countering Iran's Distrust, the Washington Post, 27/05
As U.S. and Iranian diplomats prepare for a crucial meeting in Baghdad tomorrow, what's on Tehran's mind? Note: you must subscribe to read this article, online subscription is free.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/05/25/AR2007052501930.html?sub=AR

The UN and Iran: What not to do about Iran, the Economist, 24/ 05
To ignore one unanimous United Nations Security Council resolution may be considered impudence; to defy a second looks like policy. Note: you must subscribe to read this article; a free online trial is available.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=E1_JNNVSPQ

Verification Matters number 7, May 2007
Thinking inside the box: exploring legal approaches to build confidence in Iran's nuclear programme by Andreas Persbo
http://www.vertic.org/publications/verification%20matters.asp

Verification Matters number 8, May 2007
Use of voluntary transparency measures to increase trust in states' nuclear programmes: the case of Iran by James Acton with Joanna Little
http://www.vertic.org/publications/verification%20matters.asp

Beyond Saber Rattling, Washington Post, 20/ 05
The United States was never in danger of becoming the "pitiful, helpless giant" that Richard Nixon conjured up in 1970 to justify the invasion of Cambodia -- and it does not risk that fate today. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and President Bush both need to keep that in mind to avoid stumbling into a widening of the war in Iraq.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/05/18/AR2007051801706.html

In Rare Turn, U.S. and Iran Schedule High-Level Security Talks in Baghdad, New York Times, 18/ 05
The United States and Iran on Thursday announced plans to hold rare face-to-face talks this month about Iraqi security, and the police in Mosul made mass arrests after a wave of bombings
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/18/washington/18iraq.html?
adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1179829365-2LPFepg1RX4v3P9i0BcqIA

Bottom of Form

The US-Iranian duel enters a new phase, Gulf News, 21/ 05
In the first public, high-level, face-to-face talks since 1980, American and Iranian envoys are due to meet in Baghdad on May 28 to discuss the security situation in Iraq. This important development signals a shift in both the US and Iranian policy. It is almost an admission that they need each other. The road to reconciliation, however, is likely to be long and hard.
http://www.gulf-news.com/opinion/columns/region/10126663.html

Why Arabs should engage Iran, Gulf News, 20/ 05
How should the Arabs deal with maverick Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? In recent months Tehran's political weight has been augmented as the beleaguered Bush administration sent signals that it was ready to talk to the Iranians over the future of Iraq.
http://www.gulf-news.com/articles/07/05/20/10126440.html

Truth and Consequences, Chicago Tribune, 17/ 05
Last month, Iran's president announced that the country had begun enriching uranium on an industrial scale, a pronouncement tantamount to declaring that Iran had become a full-fledged nuclear power
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0517
edit2may17,0,6876653.story?coll=chi-newsopinion-hed

Living with Iran's terror label, BBC website, 10/ 05
What's it like living in a country which has branded yours a terrorist state?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/6638929.stm

Iran's Centrifuges, New York Times, 22/ 05
Given the urgency and ambition of Iran's nuclear program, what is needed is a more urgent and ambitious international response.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/22/opinion/22tue2.html?th&emc=th

Iran's links to Iraq, BBC Radio 4 sound clip, 22/ 05
Conservative MP Patrick Mercer claims that Iran is secretly forging an alliance with al Qaida and Sunni militias in Iraq, and with Talliban in Afghanistan, to try to force the Americans out of both countries.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/listenagain/tuesday.shtml
(Segment begins at 21minutes 19seconds)