IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 91 - 11 May 2007

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SUMMARY

• Iraq Security Conference ends with no talks between Iran and US
• Breakthrough in deadlock on agenda wording for NPT PrepCom
• US, UK & EU indicate increased flexibility if Iran stop uranium enrichment
• New report warns economic sanctions counter-productive

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki refused to attend a dinner seated opposite US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during last week's Iraq Security Conference at Sharm-el-Sheik on the grounds that he was uncomfortable with the scheduled entertainment. Their meeting, widely anticipated, failed to materialise. Although the usual accusations flung were made in the formal sessions, with Iran blaming the US for the deteriorating situation in Iraq and the US accusing Iran of ferrying weapons to Iraq, there were signs too within the conference that contacts had been made between middle-ranking officials.

The agenda for the 2007 Non Proliferation Treaty PrepCom has been finalized after days of deadlock over its wording. Iran accused the US of using the phrase "reaffirming the need for full compliance" to single out Tehran as the main treaty offender, while bypassing other issues such as disarmament. A suggestion by South Africa for the addition of a footnote clarifying that "compliance" meant "all provisions" of the treaty was accepted by Iran and a consensus was achieved.

Senior officials from the US, China, Russia, UK, France, Germany and the EU are to meet in Berlin this Thursday to discuss Iran's refusal to cease uranium enrichment in the face of UN Security Council demands. The UNSC is expected to deliver a third round of sanctions on Iran if it does not comply with the May 24th deadline to cease uranium enrichment. EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana has stated that the issue of uranium enrichment has made talks with Iran 'very difficult'.

Officials from the US, UK and EU have indicated that the West will adopt a more flexible approach to negotiations with Iran once it complies with the pre-condition of stopping uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told TIME Magazine that Iran is ready to talk to US officials while reiterating the view that uranium enrichment was Iran's legal right under the NPT and not a reasonable pre-condition.

Former Iranian nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian, arrested last week under suspicion of leaking confidential nuclear information to the West, has been released on bail. As Mousavian is considered to be neither a reformist nor critic of the current regime, there has been speculation that the arrest could be linked to Mousavian's close links to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, or efforts to pin the blame for continued international pressure on the 'weaker' position of the previous government. There have also been arrests of a number of student university newspaper editors for disrespecting Islam. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera journalists have been banned from entering the Iranian Majlis for allegedly insulting a prominent Iraqi Shia cleric during one of the network's flagship programs.

Energy Minister Khaled Sharida has announced a timetable whereby Jordan would start up its first nuclear power reactor by 2015 (for electricity and desalination). Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also have plans to develop nuclear energy.

US forces have arrested 16 men suspected of having links to Iran in Sadr City, one of Baghdad's Shiite cities. The arrests were made during a raid against a group the US suspects of facilitating the transportation of powerful bomb components from Iran. In an interview with the Financial Times, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Iran was willing to help the US devise an exit strategy from Iraq saying that there was no need for the 'disastrous' invasion to become a disastrous withdrawal. Abbas later denied having said this, claiming the paper had misquoted him.

A report released by the UK House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee warns against over-reliance upon economic sanctions while dealing with Iran and North Korea. The committee instead advocates using a carrot and stick approach. The report states that economic sanctions, especially if used in isolation of other measures, are ineffective and counter-productive and cause immense human suffering.

Sara Refai, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Guiliani, McCain say they would defend Israel from Iran - 6/5
The two front-runners in the race for the Republican presidential nomination indicated Thursday night they would back military action against Iran if the Islamic Republic was acquiring nuclear weapons and threatening Israel.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1178198616337
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Nuclear Deal Hits New Snag Over Iran Ties - 6/5
The passage of a landmark nuclear deal between India and the US has hit a fresh snag with senators in Washington piling the pressure on New Delhi to keep its distance from Iran
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?
cu_no=2&item_no=147563&version=1&template_id=40&parent_id=22

The case for strikes against Iran - 8/5
Diplomacy alone will not stop Iran's nuclear program
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0508/p09s01-coop.html

US incapable of isolating Iran: Nasrallah - 8/5
Washington has no choice other than resuming relations with Iran Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=51461&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Cheney Seeks Middle East Help on Iraq, Iran - 8/5
U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney started a Middle East tour aimed at garnering support from Washington's Arab allies for curbing Iraq's violence and stepping up pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.
http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=13280

Thousands of Afghans forces home from Iran - 8/5
Iran has forced 44,000 Afghans home to their war-torn homeland in recent weeks, splitting families in some cases, the United Nations and the Afghan government said on Tuesday, raising fears of a humanitarian crisis.
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/JBRN-72ZHMU?
OpenDocument

Iraqi minister says US may release Iranians - 9/5
The five Iranian officials whose abduction in a US helicopter raid in January led to a crisis in relations between the US and Iran could be released in June according to the Iraqi foreign minister.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2524438.ece

Bush to keep Military Option on Iran: Rice - 9/5
US President George W Bush will keep a military option on the table as he seeks a diplomatic solution to the stand-off with Iran over its nuclear plans, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said.
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?
section=World_News&month=May2007&file=World_News2007050921845.xml

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Talking (Or Not) to the Iranians
The question is not why Rice and Mottaki didn't have a fling in Sharm el-Sheikh but why neither Washington nor Tehran has taken better steps toward a mature, lasting relationship.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1617980,00.html

Iran's Economic Crisis
According to Abbas Abdi, a Tehran researcher and loyal critic of the regime, Iran is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the late 1970s
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117867097377296624.html?
mod=googlenews_wsj

Iran: An Indispensable Player
Iran's ability to shape the course of events in Iraq, the broader Middle East and beyond, and particularly its ability to impact world energy markets, and consequently global commerce and security, has made it a dominant regional power broker with significant international influence and a force to be reckoned with in the 21st century.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?
edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=82068