IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 90 - 4 May 2007

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SUMMARY

• US & Iran to meet during Iraq Security Conference in Egypt, though substantive discussion unlikely
• Javier Solana calls for direct US-Iran talks on nuclear issues
• Iran reiterates refusal to cease partial uranium enrichment as a precondition to talks
• Debate continues over how close Iran is to producing nuclear weapons

Iran has confirmed that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will be representing it at the upcoming Iraq Security Summit in Egypt. It seems likely that bilateral discussions between the US and Iran will take place on the sidelines of the conference, but both have stated that substantial talks are unlikely. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said that the U.S. would press Iran to stop letting foreign fighters and arms cross its border while Iran is expected to call for a withdrawal of US and British troops from Iraq.

Talks between Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana have been described as positive by both sides. Iran has, however, dismissed any suggestion it might agree to partially suspend its uranium enrichment activities as a way towards ending an international standoff over its nuclear programme. Further talks between Larijani and Solana are expected to reconvene after 2 weeks.

Solana has since called for the US administration to press for direct talks saying he felt Iran was ready to negotiate. A senior Iranian official dismissed any indication by Solana that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be supportive of talks with the United States.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has denied making comments published by German magazine 'Focus' describing the effect that a military strike by Israel could have on Iran's nuclear program. Iranian Brigadier General Alireza Afshar responded to the alleged comments stating that Israel was not a threat to Iran.

Several US Presidential hopefuls have been commenting on the Iranian case. Mitt Romney, a potential Republican nominee has accused Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of leading an "irrational regime". Romney has called for increased sanctions and diplomatic isolation by the international community.

IAEA Director-General Mohammed ElBaradei's next report to the UN Security Council on Iran's compliance with resolution 1747 is expected by May 23. Immediate action by the Council is considered unlikely while Javier Solana remains optimistic about his talks with Ali Larijani.

CBS News has promoted a new intelligence report as saying Iran could have enough material for a single nuclear weapon in less than three years. However, the US intelligence community is sticking with its estimate that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2015, and the IAEA still points to technical difficulties Iran is experiencing in mastering the enrichment process. US Defence Secretary Robert Gate said he believed that diplomacy was working and that the US would stick to its current course.

Sara Refai, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Washington Prepares as Iran Warns Gulf - 27/4
Kuwait had declared its willingness to confront the hazards of the imminent war on Iran; Iran itself demanded signed agreements from its Gulf neighbors that state that they would not participate or assist in any American war against Iran and had explicitly warned the countries of the Gulf.
http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=8780

Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Debate Strategies on Iran, U.S. Nuclear Policy and Proliferation - 28/4
Democratic presidential hopefuls last night covered Iran, nuclear weapons and proliferation in the earliest debate ever held in a race for the White House
http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2007_4_27.html#F297AE0C

Iran standing firm against language in nuclear nonproliferation - 30/4
Iran stood firm Tuesday in opposing language in a nuclear conference agenda that reaffirms the need for full compliance with the Nuclear ...
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/05/01/
europe/EU-GEN-Nuclear-Treaty-Conference.php

Iran pursues diplomacy, Israel threatens military action - 30/4
As the European Union resumes diplomatic talks with Iran, urging the United States to follow suit and stressing that the Iranians are ready for such negotiations, Israel is recommending ways to destroy Tehran's nuclear installations.
http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_id=13483

Officials to discuss Iran's nuclear programme in London - 1/5
Last week, the European Union's foreign policy chief Javier Solana called on the United States to 'open a channel of communication with Iran
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/
2007/05/01/afx3672067.html

US faces long odds, risks in talks with Iran - 1/5
The prospect of rare senior-level talks this week between the United States and Iran offers the first real hope in some time ...
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N01106125.htm

Boost in Iran's Capacity To Enrich Uranium Noted; But Bomb-Making Ability Is Far Off, IAEA Says - 19/4
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/04/18/AR2007041801916.html?
hpid=sec-world

Reformists fight for Iran's future - 2/5
A grand coalition of anti-government forces is planning a second Iranian revolution via the ballot box to deny President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad another term in office and break the grip of what they call the "militia state" on public life and personal freedom.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianweekly/
story/0,,2070632,00.html

Beckett seeks review of relations with Iran after sailors' capture - 2/5
The Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, has ordered a review of Britain's relations with Iran following the capture of 15 British sailors last month in the Persian Gulf.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article2499371.ece

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Crude rises as Saudi foils oil field attack - 27/4
Oil had come under pressure on Thursday after Iran's chief negotiator in its nuclear standoff with the West, Ali Larijani, said Tehran and the European
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=11766

Iran's Proposal for a Grand Bargain - 28/4
In Sunday's column I lay out the attempts to reach a "grand bargain" between the U.S. and Iran, before Bush administration hard-liners killed the effort in 2003. Here I'm providing more background and the full documents.
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/

Childish Bet In American Circles to Win Over Syria and Iran - 29/4
American intellectual and academic institutions are mistaken if they allow their rage against US President George W. Bush's war on Iraq to make them disregard the necessary roles they have to assume in formulating a correct, reformative and intelligent US policy toward the Middle East.
http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/OPED/04-2007/
Article-20070429-3d148721-c0a8-10ed-01b2-ede8b9201299/story.html

Nuclear Fever in the MidEast - 29/4
Almost every Arab regime in the Mideast has been gripped with nuclear fever. Suddenly, despite the immense oil and gas reserves beneath many of them, they must have nuclear power plants.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-
0704280083apr29,0,1775003.story?coll=chi-newsopinion-hed

How Rice plans to tackle Iran - 1/5
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice never once used the word "isolate" in connection with Iran during her three appearances on talkshows
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=51306&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Syria's Summer War: Iran's Nuclear Winter - 1/5
Many have interpreted the US build-up in the Gulf as a staging post for an attack on Iran but the primary role could be deterrence in the event of an Israeli-Syrian war.
http://thebewilderness.typepad.com/my_weblog/
2007/04/syrias_summer_w.html

US Might Confront Iran on Nuclear Program - 2/5
Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Rice may confront Iran on its nuclear program when she goes to Egypt this week for a regional conference on Iraq security.
http://irannuclearwatch.blogspot.com/