IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 87 - 4 April 2007

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SUMMARY

• Ali Larijani: no need to try British navy personnel
• Iran & Britain lean towards diplomatic solutions for detained navy personnel
• US accused of violating Iranian airspace in Khuzestan
• George Bush: Iran must release the "hostages"

Following the protracted detention of 15 British Navy personnel, there are signs that the UK and Iran are making tentative moves towards a diplomatic solution. Ali Larijani, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, has stated that Iran ‘is not interested in this issue getting more complicated’ and that, under the right conditions, there would be no need for a trial. Larijani proposed that a delegation visit Iran to determine whether or not the navy personnel had strayed into Iranian waters. This has been seen as a possible response to the UK’s offer to send a team of naval experts to discuss how to avoid future disputes. A UK spokesman stated that, though differences remain, the UK ‘share[s] his preference for early bilateral discussions to find a diplomatic solution to this problem.’

Over the past week, Prime Minister Tony Blair has attempted to rally a unified international response to the situation. Support from the EU came in a warning that it would take "appropriate measures" if the detainees were not freed. Meanwhile, at the UN Security Council, Russia, China and temporary members Congo, Indonesia, Qatar, and South Africa were reluctant to support a statement containing strong language condemning Iran’s behaviour. The UNSC’s official stance was, therefore, one of ‘grave concern’ dashing UK hopes of a resounding call for the servicemen’s immediate release

Former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, and Major General Julian Thompson, who commanded 3 Commando Brigades during the Falklands war, were among those who criticized Tony Blair’s handling of the situation and called for a more aggressive approach. In contrast, Sir Richard Dalton, former UK Ambassador to Iran, led calls for quiet, robust and patient diplomacy. Dalton, argued that rhetorical heat would only inflame the situation further.

During a speech at Camp David, American President George Bush gave Blair’s diplomatic approach his support. He condemned Iran for its ‘inexcusable behaviour’, saying the hostages were to be returned immediately. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mohammed Ali Hoseyni criticised the internationalisation of the issue and responded saying that Bush should be more careful of making what he called “ill-judged, non-technical and non-rational remarks.”

Riots involving up to 200 students have taken place outside the British Embassy with calls for the expulsion of the British ambassador. The embassy has since been evacuated.

Iranian led rumours of plans for a possible Israeli strike on Iran, Syria and Hizbullah have been denied by Israel. Israel's military intelligence chief, meanwhile, has stated that Iran is making defensive preparations in anticipation of a possible U.S. military attack this summer.

Al Alam Arabic language news satellite channel quoted a local military chief as saying US warplanes have violated Iranian airspace in the south western oil-rich province of Khuzestan. It has also been reported that an ex-FBI agent has gone missing in Iran. The US administration confirmed that he was not on official business and did not link it to the broader political situation.

The head of Russia's general staff, Yuri Baluyevsky, warned the U.S. that a war with Iran would be "impossible to win." Iran has used Russia’s delayed fuel deliveries to Bushehr as an example to justify its need to enrich uranium to guarantee independent energy production Russia attributed the delay to Iran falling back on payments, a claim subsequently denied by Iran.

Contributing to growing tensions, ABC news reported that undisclosed sources believe that Iran has made unexpected progress in the installation of centrifuges in its underground facility in Natanz. President Ahmadinejad is due to make an announcement on Iran’s progress on April 9th.

Sara Refai, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran Warns of Israeli ‘suicide attack’ starting in Lebanon, Syria - 31/3
A top Iranian army official warned Arab states neighbouring Israel against a "Zionist suicide attack" in the summer.
http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/03/iran_warns_of_i.php

Iran’s Defiance Makes Britain Look Powerless - 2/4
Perhaps the most pertinent criticism of the Government's handling of the crisis has been its failure to read the Iranian regime.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=
QX5BXTZLVCQFDQFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?xml=
/news/2007/04/01/wiran101.xml

UNSC Resolution 1747 not binding on Iran: MP - 2/4
MP Hamid Reza Hajbabai said on Monday that United Nations Security Council's Resolution 1747 has no binding effect on Iran.
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0704028474151316.htm

Report: Russia urges Britain, Iran to solve crisis over detention of 15 British sailors - 31/3
Russia on Saturday urged Britain and Iran to resolve the dispute over 15 British sailors and marines captured by Iran last week, a local news agency reported.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/31/europe/
EU-GEN-Russia-Britain-Iran.php

Why Sanctions are Working - 9/4
Last fall, the Bush administration was debating how to handle the Iranian nuclear threat.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17888449/site/newsweek/

Oil surges more than $66 on Iran concerns - 3/4
Oil rose to over $66 yesterday as concerns about the standoff between Tehran and the West stirred fears Iran’s crude exports could be disrupted.
http://www.gulftimes.com/site/topics/article.asp?
cu_no=2&item_no=141673&version=1
&template_id=48&parent_id=28

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Robert Fisk: The war of humiliation - 1/4
It's the war of humiliation. The humiliation of Britain, the humiliation of Tony Blair, of the British military, of George Bush and the whole Iraqi shooting match. And the master of humiliation - even if Tony Blair doesn't realise it - is Iran, a nation which feels itself forever humiliated by the West
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/fisk/article2412764.ece

''The U.K.-Iran Crisis: The West Confronts a Rising Iran'' - 2/4
The latest crisis between Iran and the United Kingdom, which started when British sailors boarded an Indian-flagged commercial ship suspected of being involved in car smuggling in the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway, shows no sign of abating.
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=
view_report&report_id=635&language_id=1

Iran Appears Dug in for Lengthy Standoff - 2/4
The standoff over 15 captured British sailors shows no signs of abating, and analysts say that Iran's tough stance is a demonstration of the power of hardliners unafraid to confront the West.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?
id=2999341&page=1

An erratic regime spoiling for a fight - 31/3
The most dangerous implication of the seizure of the 15 British sailors and Royal Marines - other than the direct threat to them - is that Iran is even more unpredictable and confrontational than it had seemed.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/
bronwen_maddox/article1593989.ece