IRAN UPDATE
News and comment on the diplomatic movements
over Iran's nuclear programme
No. 85 - 22 March 2007
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SUMMARY
- Ahmadinejad to address UN Security Council in New York before
sanctions vote
- Bolton: military option preferable to nuclear armed Iran
- Russia denies withholding fuel to Bushehr to leverage a freeze
on Iranian uranium enrichment
- Israel and US kick off Juniper Cobra defence exercises
- Iran threatens retaliation to alleged Western plot to kidnap
senior members of its Revolutionary Guard
A draft
resolution by the P5 UN Security Council members (England, France,
China, Russia and the US) plus Germany proposes new
sanctions in response to Iran’s resolve
to continue uranium enrichment despite a UNSC deadline earlier
this year. The resolution, based on the framework of UNSC Resolution
1737, outlines additional restrictions on financial assistance,
the banning of Iranian arms exports and an asset freeze on 28 named
individuals and organizations involved in the country's nuclear
and missile programs.
South Africa, Qatar and Indonesia have proposed amendments
to the resolution with South Africa pushing for a substantial weakening
of the sanctions and a 90-day “time
out”. Russia has stated that it would not back “excessive
sanctions” while Germany and China have urged rapid adoption
of the new resolution. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will
fly to New York to defend
Iran’s nuclear programme to the UN Security Council.
John
Bolton, President Bush’s former envoy to the United Nations,
has said that, while unpleasant, pursuing a military option remained
preferable to the prospect of contending with a nuclear-armed Iran.
Russian Security Council chief Igor
Ivanov has warned against using Iran’s nuclear programme as
a pretext to interfere with its internal affairs. Meanwhile, anonymous
sources cited in the New York Times allege that Ivanov delivered
an ultimatum to Ali Hosseini Tash, Iran's deputy chief nuclear negotiator,
threatening to withhold fuel delivery to Bushehr unless Iran ceases
uranium enrichment. Russian officials have denied
this, citing financial issues as the sole reason for hold ups at
the Bushehr facility.
Israel and the US have commenced biennial air defence exercise
Juniper
Cobra on a reduced scale, reluctant to prompt speculation on
what implications these exercises might hold for Iran. According
to Israeli officials, the exercises
simulate a chemical weapons strike against a school and a rocket
attack on a power station in Tel Aviv aimed at implementing the
lessons learned from the Lebanon war last summer.
IAEA inspectors were denied
access to the Natanz facility on Monday. Whether or not this
move is a taste of an Iranian response to new sanctions will take
or the result of a scheduling change is yet to be seen. Inspectors
will attempt access again later this week.
Iran has accused Western intelligence services of a plot to kidnap
its senior military officials. Ahmadinejad has threatened that Iran
is capable and willing to retaliate
in kind.
Bahraini defence minister Khalifa
bin Ahmad Al-Khalifa has said that Bahrain and the Arab Gulf
States are capable of responding “with force" if Iran carries out
its threat of blocking the Straits of Hormuz, the delivery route
for 40% of the world’s trade in oil.
Ahmadinejad was recently in Armenia attending a ceremony to formally
open a section of a pipeline
that will supply Armenia with natural gas in exchange
for electricity.
Sara Refai, Crisis Action
STORIES AND LINKS
Report: Iran plans to kidnap Israelis - 18/3
The article on the newspaper's Web site described the move as retaliation
for what Iran claims was an undercover operation by the West to
kidnap senior ...
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=
1173879112094&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Iran's military warns US against "stupid move" - 18/3
Iran's army commander has warned the United States and other Western
powers not to make any "stupid move" over Tehran's...
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=50416&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs
UAE wins US reprieve on Iran exports - 20/3
The Bush administration appears to have backed away from a threat
to impose stricter controls on US exporters to the United Arab Emirates
in response to its ally's efforts to clamp down on the diversion
of dual-use items to Iran.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/fb923f30-d65d-11db-99b7-000b5df10621.html
Iran 'well prepared for oil shocks' - 20/3
A senior Iranian central bank official has indicated that the country
has begun to tighten its fiscal policy in the face of international
pressure.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/
89c333ee-d65a-11db-99b7-000b5df10621.html
Tehran shows no sign of giving in to Western pressure - 20/3
Iran briefed foreign envoys in Tehran about its nuclear programme
yesterday, showing no sign of bowing to Western pressure in the
face of new UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, diplomats
said.
http://gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10112360.html
Russia, Qatar, Iran to Discuss Gas OPEC in April - 20/3
The holders of the world's top three natural gas reserves - Russia,
Iran and Qatar - will meet in April to consider establishment of
a group similar to Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) to coordinate their gas policy, Qatar's Energy Minister said
on Monday, March 19.
http://www.mosnews.com/money/2007/03/20/gasopec.shtml
Oil Pipeline to Sidestep Hormuz - 21/3
GCC countries are still considering oil pipeline plans that would
avoid the Strait of Hormuz and possible interference in global oil
shipments from Iran, according to reports.
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=9763
COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
Preparing to Attack Iran: The Neocon Roadmap to War - 18/3
I was talking about the possibility of a US attack on Iran in the
very near future with my dad the other day. Now my dad doesn't follow
politics or current ...
http://www.amin.org/look/amin/en.tpl?
IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=7&NrArticle=39744&NrIssue=1&NrSection=3
Iraq, Iran economies becoming closely integrated: report - 19/3
The economies of Iraq and Iran, the largest Shiite-majority countries
in the world, are becoming closely integrated with Iranian goods
...
http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?
aid=360578&ssid=51&sid=BUS
Saudi diplomacy in Lebanon & Palestine containing Iran's role
- 17/3
On the other hand, they don't want an open confrontation with Iran.
They remember the 1980s when Ayatollah Khomeini was castigating
them and the Iran-Iraq ...
http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/03/saudi_diplomacy.php
Afghanistan: Kabul's Relations With Its Other Neighbor, Iran
- 17/3
The Afghan government and ordinary Afghans are quick to say that
most of the destabilizing factors in their country have a foreign
origin -- and Pakistan is most likely to be blamed. But recently,
more attention is being paid to the possibility that Afghanistan's
neighbor to the west -- Iran -- may also be pursuing its own agenda
in Afghanistan to the detriment of Kabul.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/
2007/3/0FA41F84-3869-4128-9E3D-ABBD4C4FAE2C.html
The Iran beauty contest - 20/3
For the leading candidates from both parties in the US, the Iran
question isn't a policy debate; it's a beauty contest. It's not
about what the candidates say they want; it's about who you believe
really means what they say. It's not about engagement versus the
military option; it's about voters' - and the Iranians' - perception
of the candidate's character.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?
itemNo=839593&contrassID=25&subContrassID=0&
sbSubContrassID=1&listSrc=Y&art=1
Iran Must Have the Bomb - 20/3
The proposed new package of United Nations sanctions against Iran
is far from being the breakthrough it has been hailed. The world's
fourth-largest oil producer has little to fear from modest economic
restrictions. If Iran wants nuclear weapons, it is going to get
them. The indications are that it does want them, and with good
reason.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/david_cox/
2007/03/iran_must_have_the_bomb_1.html
Iraq: Nuclear Boomerang - 21/3
It was supposed to stop the spread of nuclear weapons to evil regimes.
The target of the invasion four years ago was Iraq, but the goal
was to stop not just the nuclear weapons that administration officials
said the country was developing, but similar programs in other states.
When then-Undersecretary of State John Bolton was asked what lesson
Iran and North Korea should draw from the Iraq war, he replied,
"Take a number".
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/joseph_cirincione/
2007/03/and_what_about_iran.html
Russia, Iran and the Bottom Line - 21/3
Let's hear it for the profit motive. Russia has apparently decided
that it can do even better financially if it starts pressuring its
longtime client Iran to curtail its nuclear appetites.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/21/
opinion/21wed2.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
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