IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 84 - 15 March 2007

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SUMMARY

• P5 + 1 talks reported to have achieved breakthrough
• Russia plays tough with Iran
• US and Iran in multilateral talks on Iraq
• Pelosi withdraws clauses prohibiting use of funds for military operations in or related to Iran
• Chatham House argues that military strikes would be the worst possible option for Israel.
• Former senior defense official reported missing in Istanbul

Breaking news suggests that the P5+1 talks may have achieved a breakthrough in agreeing proposals for the next stage of sanctions against Iran, to be put soon to the UN Security Council. The agreement is said to include an arms embargo and an asset freeze capturing a broader number of people and companies involved in Iran's nuclear programme.

On the other hand, Russia has also been playing tough with Iran. On 12 March, Russia announced that the Iranian-based Bushehr plant would not join Iran's power grid before 2008 due to delays in US dollar payments. Ali Larijani deplored the decision.

Marking a partial thaw of the permafrost that has characterised US-Iranian relations for over two and a half decades, Iranian and US officials participated in multi-lateral talks over Iraq. The atmosphere was described as constructive with 'lively debates'. Concrete progress will be hard won - the participants were unable to decide on a date or venue for the next meeting. However, US and Israeli officials walked out of a session at the UN Conference on Disarmament, following what they described as a vitriolic speech by the Iranian Foreign Minister, Motakki, who had pointed to Israel as 'the real source of nuclear danger in the Middle East'.

He also offered to discuss the suspension of uranium enrichment activities if the UN Security Council closes its file on Tehran's nuclear program (ie. sanctions were lifted).

In Washington DC, Representative Nancy Pelosi made a controversial move and withdrew clauses from the Supplemental Appropriations Bill prohibiting use of funds for military operations in or related to Iran without Congressional approval. Speculation surfaced that Pelosi had bowed to Israeli pressure.

A report out this week by the leading UK think-tank Chatham House argued that military strikes would be the worst possible option for Israel. Yossi Mekleberg, the Israeli author of the report, argued that military strikes would be detrimental to Israel's short and long-term interests and that, in a situation of failed diplomacy, Israel would be better to consider open deterrence.

In a development worthy of a chapter of a John le Carre novel, Ali Reza Asgari, a senior defense official under ex-president Khatami, was reported missing in Istanbul. Though he is not expected to have intimate knowledge of Iran's nuclear programme, he is reported to have been instrumental in cementing Iranian support during the formation of Hezbollah. Sources quoted in the Washington Post suggested he had defected and was talking to Western intelligence agencies. Iran alleged he had been kidnapped, a belief shared by his wife.

STORIES AND COMMENT

Big powers to put Iran deal to UN, Reuters, March 15
UNITED NATIONS - Ambassadors from six major powers reached a tentative deal on imposing sanctions on Iran that they hope to introduce to the 15-nation UN Security Council on Thursday, providing their governments agree.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/
bc498d1c-d2dc-11db-829f-000b5df10621.html

Iranian Foreign Minister: 'Israel is a nuclear threat', Jerusalem Post, March 13
The Israeli and American delegations walked out of the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on Tuesday in the midst of a speech by Iranian Foreign Minister
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?
cid=1173700690982&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

Iran willing to discuss enrichment suspension, AP, March 13
Iran prepared to discuss the suspension of uranium enrichment activities if the UN Security Council closes its file
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1173700692726
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Iran nuclear plant launch postponed, Al Jazeera, March 12
Russia will not deliver nuclear fuel as planned this month to Iran's Bushehr power station due to delays in payment.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/
00912284-690B-42F5-A4B6-26847FD5D535.htm

Democrats back off on Iran language, AP, March 12
Pelosi drops Congressional oversight against Iran.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/
story/0,,-6475892,00.html

US lobby seeks Iran investment boycott, FT, March 12
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac), the most influential pro-Israel lobby group in the US on Monday warned state pension funds that they would face a campaign to sell billions of dollars invested in companies with ties to Iran.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/
7f229cba-d0c7-11db-836a-000b5df10621.html

Iran official kidnapped in Turkey, Al Jazeera, March 7
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/
3A0A92A5-6981-4DB8-9797-331C3879DF53.htm

Interesting Times: How MoveOn can help, Jerusalem Post, March 8
The peace movement should be clamouring most loudly for tightening sanctions against Tehran. Those who don't want war need to propose and back non-military measures with teeth.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=2&cid=
1173173964941&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull