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IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 83 - 1 March 2007

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An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

  • P5 + 1 meeting in London begins building new resolution on Iran
  • US agrees to meet Iran and Syria at international conference on Iraq
  • Ahmadinejad: Iranian nuclear program like 'train with no brake'
  • Blair: it would not be 'right to take military action against Iran'
  • New Hersh article claims plans of military attack are progressing

Officials from France, Germany, Britain, China, Russia, the US and EU Secretariat met on Monday to discuss options in light of Iran’s flouting of the UN Security Council Deadline. In a statement, John Sawers, UK Foreign Office Political Director, said discussions revolved around a new resolution but that no decision had been made, and that all involved were ‘committed to seeking a negotiated solution’.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice indicated continued resolve in demanding cessation of uranium enrichment as a precondition to talks. However, in a notable departure, she agreed to attend an international conference with Iranian and Syrian representatives in Baghdad in mid-March to discuss stabilizing Iraq. The administration has said there would be no discussion of Iran’s nuclear program. Ali Larijani is also said to have provisionally accepted the invitation.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pledged to continue Iran’s uranium enrichment program, likening it to a train ‘with no brake and no reverse gear’. Tony Blair declared that Iran was making a big miscalculation in its defiance but that it would not be ‘right to take military action’. In contrast, Vice President Cheney restated that all options remained on the table. Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki called for a bold decision to open negotiations from the 5 permanent UN members and Germany while adding that Iran was prepared for any eventuality.

Refuting claims by Defence Secretary Robert Gates that the US is not planning a war with Iran, journalist Seymour Hersh cited sources alleging the commissioning of a Pentagon panel to plan bomb attacks capable of being implemented within 24 hours from go-ahead. Hersh also claims the Iranian leadership is preparing by constructing dispersed underground bunkers. He also claimed that US covert operators are operating within Iran, and inside Lebanon supporting the position of extremist Sunni groups to neutralise Iranian influence, a claim denied by Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman commented: "The United States is not planning to go to war with Iran. To suggest anything to the contrary is simply wrong, misleading and mischievous."

The Daily Telegraph has alleged that Israel is entering into talks with the US on using an ‘air corridor’ in Iraqi air space for any an attack on Iran. This claim has been denied by Deputy Defence Minister Ephraim Sneh saying: "International authorities, particularly in the West, who want to avoid direct involvement with Iran, are anxious to spread the story that we will strike Iran".

Senior US commanders have threatened resignation in the event of a military strike on Iran according to defence and intelligence sources. Meanwhile, IAEA and US officials have said that US intelligence reports have yet to uncover any substantial proof regarding whether or not Iran’s nuclear programme is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran claims to have fired a ‘sounding’ rocket into space for research purposes. However, the US claims that any such test went undetected, prompting speculation that the event never happened.

Hizbullah Deputy Chief Sheikh Naim Kassem has warned that an attack on Iran would have dangerous implications for the entire region. Kassem suggested that Hizbullah would definitely ‘respond’ if Israel took the opportunity to move against Lebanon.

Sara Refai, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Muslim Nations Warn of Dangers of Iran Nuclear Row - 26/2
The statement of concern came after ministers from Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met to seek ways to resolve the conflicts involving Iraq and the Palestinians, as well as Iran.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?
cid=1171894520380&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Iran Made 15 Page Article Available to the IAEA - 26/2
Deputy Head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency Mohammad Saeedi said that Iran responded positively to the UN nuclear watchdog's call to see the 15-page document on production of metallic uranium
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=49967&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

New Twist Claimed in Iran Stand Off - 26/2
Three Arab states have given the green light for Israeli warplanes to transit their airspace if necessary for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, a Kuwaiti newspaper says
http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/
New_twist_claimed_in_Iran_standoff/20070225-063444-2275r/

Iran ‘Ready for War’ over Nuclear Activities - 25/2
The Iranian Government says it is ready for any scenario in its nuclear row with the West, even war
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200702/s1856485.htm

West Mulls Iran Sanctions; US, Tehran Swap Warnings - 26/2
Western powers meet in London on Monday to discuss tightening U.N. sanctions on Iran amid a flurry of tough and sometimes colourful talk between Washington and Tehran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.
http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?
type=worldNews&storyID=2007-02-26T151604Z_
01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-289177-4.xml

‘Trigger happy’ US worry Putin - 27/2
The president of Russia expressed concern yesterday about a "trigger happy" America as speculation mounted about the Bush administration's plans to attack Iran's nuclear sites.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/
news/2007/02/27/wputin27.xml

Iran Won't Halt Atomic Work, Snubs Big Powers - 27/2
Iran said on Tuesday it would never suspend uranium enrichment as demanded by the West, a day after world powers agreed to work on a new U.N. resolution to pressure Tehran to back down over its nuclear program.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/
international-iran-nuclear.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

COMMENT & ANALYSIS

The Redirection - 25/2
Seymour Hersh
A “redirection” in Middle East strategy has brought the United States closer to an open confrontation with Iran and, in parts of the region, propelled it into a widening sectarian conflict between Shiite and Sunni Muslims.
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/
070305fa_fact_hersh?page=1

Forex - Dollar near 2007 euro lows on US economic concerns, Iran missile launch - 26/2
The dollar is trading near 2007 lows against the euro on mounting speculation this week's raft of US economic data will paint a relatively downbeat picture of the state of the world's largest economy.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/
afx/2007/02/26/afx3460979.html

Crude Oil Rises for Fourth Day on Iran Dispute, U.S. Snowstorm - 26/2
Oil advanced for a fourth day on concern that the dispute over Iran's nuclear program may disrupt Middle East supplies and as a snowstorm hit the U.S. East Coast.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601087&sid=af7Dpo7P1zx0&refer=home

Bush’s Future Iran War Speech - 27/2
Michael Klare

Sometime this spring or summer, barring an unexpected turnaround by Tehran, President Bush is likely to go on national television and announce that he has ordered American ships and aircraft to strike at military targets inside Iran.
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=19763

Intelligence on Iran Still Lacking - 27/2
An analysis of US intelligence on Iran looking at available resources
http://www.cfr.org/publication/12721/

Prospects of War Against Iran - 28/2
Patrick Seale

Few observers of the international scene believe that the United States is preparing to go to war against Iran
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?
page=2007%5C02%5C28%5Cstory_28-2-2007_pg3_4

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