IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 82 - 22 February 2007

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SUMMARY

• US Iran Attack Plans Revealed
• El Baradei: Iran 6 months away from HEU, but years away from a weapon
• Possible delays on Russian fuel deliveries to Iran
• UN Resolution 1737 deadline passes as Iran rules out cessation of uranium enrichment as a precondition to talks
• Iran stages 2nd war games simulation exercises this month

The deadline to UN Security Council Resolution 1737 passed this Tuesday with Iran reiterating its refusal to compromise its stance on uranium enrichment. Mohamed El Baradei, IAEA Chief, stated that Iran’s technical know-how, derived from running its pilot nuclear program, had reached the point of mastering the process of enrichment. Estimating that Iran was 6 months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, El Baradei was also quick to point out that Iran was still 5 - 10 years away from producing a bomb. Ali Larijani, Iran’s nuclear negotiator, has suggested imposing a formal limit on Iran’s degree of uranium enrichment as a guarantee that Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon.

On the night before the UNSC deadline, President Ahmadinejad and two other government officials called for renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Howeer, he vowed to continue with uranium enrichment, claiming that UNSC preconditions to negotiations were unfair unless undertaken by the West as well.

Ayatollah Ali Khamanei has again lent his support to the nuclear program, pointing to finite oil and gas reserves as proof that Iran requires additional future sources of energy. Khamanei accused dissenting voices within the administration of giving encouragement to the “enemy”.

Russia has announced it may delay delivery of fuel to Bushehr, originally planned for March, and potentially completion of the facility for up to a year, after disagreements with Iran over its $25 million monthly payment structure. Iranian officials have denied any discrepancies in payment, though there are reports that Iran has been requesting its payments to be made in Euros rather than US dollars.

Diplomatic sources have said that US plans for a military strike on Iran go beyond the targeting of nuclear facilities to include most of its existing military infrastructure. The Pentagon has dismissed these claims.

In a move widely interpreted as a warning to Iran, a second carrier battle group, centred around the USS John C. Stennis, has arrived in the Persian Gulf. The US now has two carrier battle groups in the region for the first time since the start of the war on Iraq in 2003. A third, battle carrier group, involving the USS Ronald Reagan, is also on its way, though this could be to relieve the original group. Meanwhile, Iran has staged the second set of simulated war games this month. The three-day exercises involved over 3,000 units of the elite Revolutionary Guard in 16 provinces around Iran and have included responses to hypothetical air strikes.

Israel has also started war games exercises involving IDF brigades implementing the lessons learned from the Lebanon war.

Iranians are alleging that last week’s bus bombing in Zahedan is linked to US influences after findings that weapons used in the attack were American. Iran has since offered to present international bodies with what it describes as evidence of the involvement of Western countries in the attacks.

Sara Refai, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran Set to Defy Nuclear Deadline - 21/2
Iran was set on Wednesday to ignore the latest UN deadline to suspend nuclear work as a defiant President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pledged that the contentious atomic drive was vital for the nation's future.
http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/070221093816.qo97l7hr.html

FT Interview: Mohamed El Baradei - 19/2
An interview with El Baradei by Daniel Dombey in the run up to the UN Security Council deadline
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d229a13c-c056-11db-995a-
000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=be75219e-940a-11da-82ea-0000779
e2340,print=yes.html

IAEA Set to Report on Nuclear Iran - 21/2
The UN nuclear watchdog is putting finishing touches to a report expected to confirm that Iran is continuing uranium enrichment activities. The report is expected Friday 24th February.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/
420AE469-30CB-4F06-8C7E-F549318B58D6.htm

Iran Tells the West to Halt its Nuclear Programmes - 21/2
Iran's president demanded that Western countries halt their nuclear programmes as well if they were to insist that Iran does the same as a precondition to talks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/
news/2007/02/21/wiran21.xml

Khamanei: Iran & Syria Must Defuse US Plots - 19/2
Khamenei stated that the West was trying to weaken Muslim nations during a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was in Tehran to discuss instability in Iraq and the crisis in Lebanon.
http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/02/khamenei_iran_s_2.php

US Dimisses Iranian President’s Nuclear Offer - 21/2
The White House has dismissed Ahmadinejad’s suggestion that Iran stop its nuclear production if the West does the same as a precondition to talks.
http://khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
section=middleeast&xfile=data/middleeast/
2007/february/middleeast_february336.xml

Fifth Fleet chief fears “miscalculation” by Iran (AFP) - 21/2
The outgoing commander of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet has expressed concern that a “miscalculation” by Iran in its nuclear standoff with the West could spark an armed conflict in the Gulf region
http://khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
section=middleeast&xfile=data/middleeast/
2007/february/middleeast_february339.xml

Don’t Attack Iran Says Nuke Expert - 21/2
El Baradei warns that a strike on Iran could result in a rallying around the current administration and an accelerated route to nuclear production
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?
in_article_id=38197&in_page_id=34

Iran 'swiftly seeks nuclear goal' - 21/2
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Iran will try to achieve nuclear capability as soon as possible.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6381477.stm

Officials: Iranian patrol boats probe Iraqi waters - 19/2
Iranian patrol boats have increased attempts in the last week to assess defenses near Iraqi offshore oil terminals, U.S. military officials said Monday.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/02/19/iran.iraq/index.html

Iran Says Sunnis, Using Pakistan as Base, Planned Fatal Bombing - 19/2
Iran has accused the United States and Britain of provoking the Sunni insurgents who claimed responsibility for last week’s attack.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/19/world/middleeast/
19iran.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Iran and the Talent for Making Enemies - 20/2
Iran's rise is causing alarm in the Arab Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, but also in Egypt. Though a Persian and Shiite country in an overwhelmingly Arab and Sunni region, Iran's radical Islamism resonates with the politicized Islamism that is energizing most Arab opposition movements, and its militant opposition to the US and support for groups that engage Israel in battle is very popular in the so-called "Arab street" and in the Arab media. At another level, Iran's rise, reinforced by its suspected bid for nuclear weapons, threatens to awaken historical hostilities between Sunnis and Shiites and between Persians and Arabs.
http://dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?
edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=79671

Comment: Once George Bush has got hold of a bad idea he just can't let it go - 19/2
We watch plans for an attack on Iran unfold even as the official narrative for the run-up to the Iraq war unravels
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,,2016219,00.html

A Twofold Approach to Tehran - 20/2
As Iran's power in the Middle East grows, the Bush administration is pursuing a two-pronged strategy of directly challenging Tehran in places such as Iraq and Lebanon, while seeking to exploit fissures believed to be emerging in Iran's social and political systems.
http://users1.wsj.com/lmda/do/checkLogin?mg=wsj-users1&url=http%
3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB117193922708213255.html
%3Fmod%3Dhome_whats_news_us

Terrorist Acts in Iraq and Iraq Point to the involvement of the US and Britain - 19/2
The pattern of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Iran, and even Lebanon, are remarkably similar and seem to directly serve the interests of the U.S., Britain and Israel
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=20070218&articleId=4841

Not Good News - 19/2
Two further attacks on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard have taken place in an area where a group widely considered within Iran to be sponsored by the US may be operating. Iran has announced that it has evidence linking the US to the attack. Sam Gardiner writes.
http://www.ichblog.eu/content/view/628/1/