IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 81 - 16 February 2007

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SUMMARY

• Ahmadinejad: Ready to speak to international community
• Bush presents evidence documenting Iran's involvement in attacks on US troops in Iraq
• Israel tests Arrow missile defence system
• Internal EU Report states Iran's technical limitations more effective than sanctions in slowing enrichment
• EU agrees to tighten restrictions on financial transactions with Iran

On 11th February, the 10-day dawn festival celebrating the 1979 Islamic Revolution and overthrow of the Shah came to a close without President Ahmadinejad's expected announcement of the installation of 3,000 extra centrifuges at the Natanz facility. Instead, Ahmadinejad restated that Iran would continue its uranium enrichment program and said that he was ready to speak with the international community; prompting speculation that he faces additional pressure to 'tone down' his rhetoric over Iran's nuclear programme.

Meeting EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, and German Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on the fringes of an international security conference in Munich, Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, indicated that Iran would be willing to discuss technical limitations on its uranium enrichment. Larijani was also quoted as saying that Iran's nuclear programme posed no threat to Israel or any other country. Despite fledgling hopes that the Munich meeting might pave the way for negotiations to restart, Solana stated that he saw no obvious breakthrough while Iran persisted in its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment.

At a press conference in Baghdad, US military officials presented what they claimed was 'evidence' that Iran was supplying deadly weapons to Iraqi insurgents. The presentation fell far short of the anticipated 'dossier' of intelligence. Officials presented roadside bombs, and components and fragments of bombs, claiming that they had been manufactured in Iran and smuggled into Iraq on the orders of senior levels of the Iranian government. A senior defence analyst admitted that there was "no 'smoking gun' linking Tehran and Iraqi militants." Congressional and other critics of the Bush administration expressed marked scepticism at the allegations.

On the 11th of February, Israel conducted a nighttime test of its Arrow missile defence system, stating that it could bring down any type of ballistic missile, a capability no other power possessed. Meanwhile, 'informed sources' in Washington asserted that the recent military build-up in the Gulf put the US in a logistical position to be able to conduct a military strike against Iran in the spring.

Following pressure to enact measures in addition to UN sanctions, European officials agreed to broaden financial and trade sanctions on Iran. Only a few days before, a leaked internal EU Report stated that sanctions and diplomatic pressures had not had the intended effect on delaying Iran's uranium enrichment. The report pointed to technical difficulties as the cause of delays saying that it would be impossible to stop Iran from enriching enough uranium to fuel a nuclear bomb. A spokesperson of Javier Solana said the document was an internal 'reflection paper' discussing all aspects of the EU's relationship with Iran and had been misrepresented in the press.

Iran's official news agency claimed that a bomb, exploding next to a bus owned by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, killed 18 people. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Jundollah (God's soldiers); a Sunni Muslim movement that Iran has linked to Al Qaeda. An unnamed Iranian official alleged that Jundollah received support from the United States.

Mustaqa Al Sadr, leader of the Mahdi army, is reported to be in Iran, reported by some as an attempt to escape the US security push in Iraq. Sadr's supporters have rejected the claims.

Sara Refai, Crisis Action

STORIES AND LINKS

Arrows 'Give Israel Edge Over Iran and Syria' - 13/2
http://gulfnews.com/region/Middle_East/10103936.html
Israel's latest test of its Arrow missile defence system proves Israel has a jump on its fiercest enemies, Iran and Syria, a leading Member of Parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee said yesterday.

Iran Raises Hope of A Nuclear Settlement - 12/2
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/cce42bf0-ba31-11db-89c8-0000779e2340.html
Ali Larijani has said that he has hope for a negotiated settlement

EU Sees Iran's 'New Ambition' for Talks - 12/2
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/
idUKL1284726320070212?pageNumber=1
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier held talks with Larijani at an international security conference in Munich

Ahmadinejad Restrained but Defiant - 12/2
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/
article2261527.ece
Ahmadinejad's failure to announce the installation of 3,000 additional centrifuges at Natanz is being seen by some as the influence of moderate voices within the government

Target Iran: US Able to Strike in Spring - 10/2
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2010001,00.html
US preparations for an air strike against Iran are at an advanced stage, in spite of repeated public denials by the Bush administration, according to informed sources in Washington.

We are not responsible for rifles, says Austria - 14/2
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?
xml=/news/2007/02/14/wiran114.xml
Austria denied responsibility for powerful sniper rifles sold to Iran acquired by insurgents in Iraq

We have not armed Iraqi insurgents, say Iranians - 13/2
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/
iraq/article1376597.ece
President Ahmadinejad has rejected American claims that Iran has supplied sophisticated weapons to militants to attack US forces in Iraq.

Iran: Nuclear Announcement coming in April - 11/2
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/02/11/
iran.nuclear/index.html
Iran's controversial president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday his country will make an announcement in April about new nuclear achievements.

Israeli Ready to Confront Iran Alone: Minister - 14/2
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=49708&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs
Israel alone will have to confront the perceived nuclear threat from archenemy Iran, the country's ultra-rightwing Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman has said, according to an AFP report.

EU: Brussels Rushes to Clarify 'Nuclear Iran' Report - 13/2
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/02/
4B1F158A-1E02-483C-9EE8-E698C294C3F3.html
EU officials launched a rare and hurried exercise in damage control today to counter a suggestion by the "Financial Times" newspaper that the bloc has concluded that Iran cannot be prevented from acquiring a nuclear bomb.

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

How the West Can Avert War with Iran - 14/2
https://registration.ft.com/registration/barrier?
referer=http://www.ft.com/home/uk&location=http%3A//
www.ft.com/ cms/s/d4abb172-bb9f-11db-afe4-0000779e2340.html
Washington and Jerusalem clearly have no desire to attack Iran. But if the Europeans close down the option of boosting the soft power of sanctions, the odds on military strikes will increase significantly.

Iran, the EU and the Swiss Way Out - 15/2
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IB15Ak04.html
The United Nations Security Council deadline for Iran to stop uranium enrichment is only one week away. While for the White House escalation hysteria is the name of the game, Europe once again has nothing better to do than to demonstrate its paralysis over bottles of Bordeaux.

Gabrielle Rifkind: Want to ease tensions with Iran? Just try Talking - 13/2
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/
article2264679.ece
The evidence put out over the weekend by American military officials in Baghdad - that Iran is supplying Shia extremists groups in Iraq with deadly weapons - has ratcheted up tensions. But as the US continues the biggest naval build-up in the Gulf since the Iraq war, have all the diplomatic options been fully explored?

Why is the US Press Silent on Brzezinski's Warnings of War Against Iran? - 14/2
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=GRE20070214&articleId=4786
Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, delivered a scathing critique of the war in Iraq and warned that the policy of the Bush administration was leading inevitably to a military confrontation with Iran, which would have disastrous consequences for US imperialism.

White House Challenged Over Iran Dossier - 13/2
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=20070213&articleId=4781
The White House was today challenged by a group of academics and Middle East experts to retract accusations by senior US defence officials that the "highest levels" of the Iranian government are supplying roadside bombs to Iraqi insurgents.

10 Reasons Why Iran will not Get the North Korean Agreement - 14/2
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? cid=1170359851901
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
The US administration that gave its blessing to the agreement with Pyongyang isn't going to let the mullahs off so easily.