IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 80 - 9 February 2007

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SUMMARY

• 57% of Americans predict war within the next year
• More Iranian war games as tensions rise
• Iran's Supreme Leader vows global retaliation
• Military and civilian experts reject US strike on Iran
• Chirac: nuclear-armed Iran not a threat
• Blair: No plans to attack Iran, but all options on the table

Iran this week conducted another round of military exercises, codenamed Saeqa, involving tests of the newly-delivered, Russian-made TOR-M1 surface to air missiles, which can track 47 targets simultaneously, whilst engaging 8. Iran's Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has warned of global retaliation against US interests following any American attack.

A poll revealed that 57% of Americans anticipate war with Iran in 2007. As the US' closest ally, Tony Blair this week continued his policy of ambiguity when he spoke before a panel of 30 select committee chairs in Parliament. Despite saying that there are no plans for military action against Iran, he refused to rule out military action.

Former American generals and civilian groups have also this week expressed deep reservations around the prospect of a military attack. Three former US military leaders, Lt Gen Robert G. Gard, Gen Joseph P. Hoar and Vice Adm Jack Shanahan, have stated that a war would have "disastrous consequences for security in the region". They have urged Britain in particular to use its influence to persuade the US against launching an attack. Leading think tanks and campaign groups, including the Foreign Policy Centre and Oxfam, have also joined the call for diplomacy, stating that US military action would be "wholly counter-productive as well as highly dangerous".

Meanwhile, Jacques Chirac's unguarded - and later retracted - admission that a nuclear armed Iran would not represent a threat, has raised questions around the true extent of the danger, and European resolve to tackle it. If Iran continues to enrich uranium beyond the February 21st deadline, there must surely be doubt whether allies will heed Washington's calls for tougher measures.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

American majority predicts war with Iran, Angus Reid Global Monitor, February 07 2007
Fifty seven per cent of Americans see their country in military conflict with Iran within the next year.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/
fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/14662

Iran to hold war games in Gulf, yenetnews.com, February 07 2007
Iran will shortly begin another round of military exercises.
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/
CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3361872,00.html

Iranian armed forces tests modern air defence shield, Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), February 07 2007
Iran is reported to have tested the newly delivered TOR-M1 surface to air missiles.
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-203/0702078749172331.htm

Iran's leader warns US against attack, MSNBC, February 08 2007
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed global retaliation against US targets in response to an attack.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17042605/

US ex-generals reject Iran strike, bbc.co.uk, February 04 2007
The former generals warned that an attack on Iran would aggravate global and Middle East tensions.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6328801.stm

Experts warn against attacking Iran, Iranmania, February 06 2007
Think-tanks and campaign groups have urged Tony Blair to dissuade President Bush from attacking Iran.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=49505&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Chirac gaffe reveals new strategy of containment, New York Times (fairuse), February 03 2007
The French president's comments raise questions on the scale of the threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/sf/nyt2_4_7_1.htm

US urges additional UN action against Iran, reuters, February 07 2007
Washington is hoping that the Security Council will exert additional pressure on Iran if it refuses to end uranium enrichment activities by February 21st.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?
type=worldnews&storyID=2007-02-08T002826Z_01_
N07414784_RTRUKOC_0_US-NUCLEAR-IRAN-USA.xml

Blair says no military action on Iran, Jersualem Post, February 06 2007
The UK prime minister has said that there are no plans for military action against Iran.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=
1170359794799&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Military action against Iran not off the table, The Guardian.co.uk, February 06 2007
Tony Blair said that President Ahmadinejad was out "to create maximum trouble in the Middle East".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2007016,00.html

Gunmen snatch Iranian diplomat in Baghdad, afp, February 06 2007
The US has stated that its personnel were not involved the incident.
http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/
070206180641.5v473crh.html

Mottaki rejects secret talks with US over nuclear case, Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), February 06 2007
Iran's Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki has rejected the suggestion of secret US-Iranian talks to resolve the nuclear standoff.
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-203/0702060668172547.htm

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Consequences of possible military action: The Case for Diplomatic Solutions on Iran, February 07 2007
Military action against Iran could have disastrous global consequences. Multi-agency report from a diverse group of organisations including Oxfam, the Foreign Policy Centre, faith groups and others.
http://www.crisisiran.com/

The blame game, The American Prospect, February 02 2007
The Bush administration is keen to find a link between Iran and the violence in Iraq, in order to justify Washington's increasingly hard line Iran policy.
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&
name=ViewWeb&articleId=12433

Ending Iran's defiance, Alon Ben-Meir, February 05 2007
Suggests that the US should attempt to weaken Iran by entering into dialogue with Syria.
http://alonben-meir.com/articles/read/id/247

Saudis act to counter Iran's influence in the Mideast, International Herald Tribune, February 05 2007
Saudi Arabia is reported to have taken up a more pro-active role in challenging Iran's aim of regional ascendancy.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/05/news/saudi.php?page=2

Ahmadinejad held hostage to bazaar politics, Asia Times, February 03 2007
The Tehran bazaar, a major and established influence on Iranian politics, is said to be turning against Ahmadinejad.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IB03Ak02.html

Stepped up US preparations for war against Iran, globalresearch.ca, February 05 2007
US military deployments to the Middle East are perceived as a prelude to war.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=SYM20070205&articleId=4690

A political bombshell from Zbigniew Brzezinski: Ex-national security adviser warns that Bush is seeking a pretext to attack Iran
Brzezinski has warned that the Bush administration may use a terrorist attack as a pretext for attacking Iran.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=GRE20070204&articleId=4670

Iran: The War Begins, Information Clearing House, February 05 2007
John Pilger warns that the build-up to a US attack on Iran has begun.
http://www.ichblog.eu/content/view/300/2/