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IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 79 - 2 February 2007

If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback of how useful you find this update. Please e-mail comments by reply to Carlos Coke on iran at basicint.org

An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

  • UN Security Council Feb 21 deadline approaches
  • 'Time-out' proposal from ElBaradei
  • Iran ups tempo on nuclear programme
  • US diplomatic pressure limited: Russia vows nuclear delivery to Iran, Shell signs contract
  • US Iraq forces to target Iranian agents; Iran suspected in GI deaths

The UN Security Council deadline for Iran to cease its enrichment activities arrives later this month - 21 February. Iran's nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani expressed optimism that a breakthrough was still possible. IAEA head, Mohammed El Baradei, has asked for restraint from both parties, suggesting that UN sanctions could be dropped in return for Iran's suspension of uranium enrichment. This received a positive response from Russia and several European states, but US and UK diplomats were quick to pour cold water over the suggestion.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Iranian parliament's foreign affairs and national security committee, claimed that Iran was in the process of finally installing the oft-discussed 3000 centrifuges, but his claim was denied soon afterwards by the p. Iran is also reported to be expanding the underground nuclear facility at Natanz, to enable the installation of over 50,000 centrifuges and enrichment on an industrial scale.

The US has not succeeded in achieving a unity international front. Russia has reaffirmed that it will deliver nuclear fuel for the Bushehr plant in March 2007. The White House was already said to be considering sanctions over Moscow's delivery of Tor M-1 surface to air missiles to Iran. The US is also unhappy at an apparent reluctance from allies to confront President Ahmadinejad. The Anglo-Dutch gas and oil giant, Shell, has broken ranks and signed a preliminary agreement over a £5bn gas deal with Iran, countering a general trend of falling foreign direct investment in response to greater commercial risk.

Reports continue of military build-up and plans for action. A third carrier group has been placed on short notice to go out to the Gulf. President Bush authorized US troops to capture or kill Iranian operatives in Iraq. Iran has said that it may yet respond to US hostilities against its representatives. Seeking greater support on Capitol Hill this week for its assertive policy with Iran, the US government is suggesting that Iranian forces or elements trained by them killed five US soldiers in a January 20th attack in Karbala.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran installing 3,000 nuclear centrifuges, MP says, Reuters, January 27 2007
An Iranian spokesman confirmed the installation of 3000 centrifuges.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?
type=newsOne&storyID=2007-01-27T173310Z
_01_L27922772_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAN-NUCLEAR.xml
&WTmodLoc=Home-C2-TopNews-newsOne-4

Iran Official Denies Nuke Plant Reports, Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6376808,00.htmlv

Iran to start assembling centrifuges, IAEA says underground facility would enrich uranium, Washington Post.com. January 27 2007
Iran is reported to expanding the Natanz facility to accommodate over 50,000 centrifuges.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/
2007/01/26/AR2007012601773_pf.html

Russia vows to keep schedule for Iran nuclear plant, Yahoo, January 28 2007
Russia will deliver nuclear fuel for the Bushehr plant in March 2007.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070128/wl_mideast_afp/
irannuclearpolitics_070128181105;_ylt=
AlnzqcBiOT8K6DgYNzyNzWoUewgF;
_ylu=X3oDMTA2ZGZwam4yBHNlYwNmYw--

USA may impose sanctions on Russia for selling 29 Tor-M1 complexes to Iran, January 25 2007
Washington is angry with Russia's recent completion of missile deliveries to Iran.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/25-01-2007/86770-TorM1-0

Shell defies US pressure and signs £5bn Iranian gas deal, The Guardian, January 29 2007
Shell's move runs counter to US attempts to isolate Iran.
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2001512,00.html

US accuses allies of dragging their feet over Iran, The Times, January 31 2007
Washington is dismayed at the lack of co-operation from its allies in punishing Iran.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2575797,00.html

Nuclear plans in chaos as Iran leader flounders, The Observer, January 28 2007
Iran's nuclear programme is said to be encountering major technical difficulties.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2000303,00.html

America 'Poised to strike at Iran's Nuclear Sites' from bases in Bulgaria and Romania, January 28 2007
The report in the Glasgow Sunday Herald, anticipates a US attack on Iran before the end of April.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines07/0128-05.htm

UN nuclear chief calls for time out over Iran, Yahoo, January 26 2007
Mohammed El Baradei has called for calm over the US-Iran nuclear crisis, suggesting that UN sanctions are dropped in return for Iran's cessation of uranium enrichment.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070127/
wl_afp/irannucleariaeaelbaradei_070127021925

Troops authorized to kill Iranian operatives in Iraq, Washington Post, January 26 2007
The circumstances under which this would happen however are unclear.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/01/25/
AR2007012502199_pf.html

Iran may have trained attackers that killed 5 American soldiers, US and Iraqis say, New York Times (fairuse), January 31 2007
Asserting a link between Iran and the deaths of the US servicemen could boost domestic support for the Bush administration in confronting Iran.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/sf/nyt1_31_7.htm

Senators warn against conflict with Iran, Review Journal, (AP), January 30th 2007
Democrat and Republican senators, including Presidential hopeful Barak Obama, expressed concern over the hardening Bush administration policy toward Iran.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_IRAN?
SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&
TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Iran's nuclear gamble, Sanam Vakil , Open Democracy, February 1, 2007
Tehran's nuclear programme, regional profile and economic woes have put its regime in a corner. Sanam Vakil suggests a way out.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-iran_war/
iran_gamble_4305.jsp

The surge: Don't hold your breath, Asia Times.com, January 30 2007
The deployment of some 20,000 extra US troops to Iraq is partly seen as a ill-fated attempt to counter Iranian influence.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA30Ak03.html

On Iran, Bush faces haunting echo of Iraq, New York Times, January 28 2007
President Bush's credibility has been so damaged by the Iraq war that he faces an uphill struggle to convince the American political elites and public that Iran represents a threat.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/world/middleeast/28iran.html?
_r=1&hp&ex=1170046800&en=60f08fc4fca49c8b&ei=5094
&partner=homepage&oref=slogin

Bush is about to attack Iran: Why can't Americans see it? January 29 2007
Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury during the Reagan years, despairs at the lack of attention being paid to President Bush's perceived march to war.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=%20RO20070127&articleId=4604

With Iran ascendant, US is seen at fault, MSNBC, January 30 2007
Iran's rise in the Middle East is not so much seen as an increase in its capabilities, but more to do with the contraction of US power.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16877295/

Bush administration 'spoiling for a fight', The Guardian, January 31 2007
Simon Tisdall outlines the various strands of President Bush's 'push back' against Iran.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldbriefing/story/0,,2002232,00.html

Israeli internal assessments of Iran belie threat rhetoric, antiwar.com, January 31 2007
Despite publicly expressed fears equating Iran with Nazi Germany, Israeli intelligence views the Iranian leadership as rational decision makers.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/porter.php?articleid=10435

Bullying Iran, New York Times Editorial, February 1 2007
George Bush's stance towards Iran is misreading Iranian politics and could well take us to war.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/01/opinion/ediran.php

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