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IRAN UPDATENews and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programmeNo. 78 - 26 January 2007 If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. In particular we are keen to hear feedback of how useful you find this update. Please e-mail comments by reply to Carlos Coke on iran at basicint.org An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm. SUMMARY
This week, Iran appeared to make good on its threat to limit its co-operation with the IAEA, in retaliation to a UN sanctions resolution passed on 23 December, when it barred 38 named inspectors (believed to be from Western countries) from entering its Natanz facility. Relations with the IAEA are not entirely severed - other inspectors were admitted. There have also been suggestions in the western media that some oil-producing states have collaborated to wage an economic war against Iran by flooding the oil market and driving down prices. In late November 2006, Nawaf Obaid, an advisor to the Saudi government, suggested that this could be an option in thwarting any attempt at Iranian ascendancy in the region. Dissatisfaction over the state of the economy was seen as the main reason behind President Ahmadinejad's recent defeat in December's local council elections. As the carrier USS Stennis heads toward the Persian Gulf, Nicholas Burns, US Undersecretary of State for political affairs, has admitted that the deployment of the additional carrier group is an attempt to counter Iranian regional ambition. Der Spiegel provides analysis that, in 15 years of deployments of additional carriers to the Gulf, the US rarely cries wolf. Similar deployment occurred in the run up to the 1991 Gulf war, preceded Operation Desert Strike in 1996, took place prior to Operation Desert Fox in 1998 and also happened before the 2003 Gulf war. In only one case was a build-up on this scale not followed by a military strike: that of May 1998 when Iraq temporarily accepted conditions imposed by the UN Security Council. For its part, Iran plans to conduct more missile tests. Over the last year, Iran has stepped up its military exercises, a reflection of heightened tensions. Iran has also received the final delivery of an order for the advanced Russian TOR M-1 Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs). The US and Israel have raised complaints with Moscow over the deal, stating that the missiles present a threat. Russia has stressed that the missiles, due to their relatively short range, are defensive in nature. Reports indicate that Iran has deployed them to protect its nuclear facilities from air attack. A uniquely extensive World Public Opinion (PIPA) poll, examining Iranian and US attitudes to one another, was published on January 24. Amongst the findings were:
The poll included over 1000 Iranian respondents, from every province. In a BBC survey suggests that US unpopularity continues to grow as a result of its foreign policy. The poll of 26,000 people in 25 countries showed that 49% saw the US as playing a mainly negative role in the world, with 29% saying that its role was positive, down from 36% last year. Globally, 60% said that the US was mishandling the Iranian nuclear issue: 64% in Britain and 50% in the US. Former national security advisor to President Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski has called the current US approach to Iran ' self blinding'. However, leading neo-conservative Richard Perle has said that he believes President Bush will order an attack on Iran if he perceives that sanctions will not prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Carlos Coke (BASIC) STORIES AND LINKS Iran bars 38 UN IAEA inspectors, CBS news, January 22
2007 US warns Iran to back down, The State.com (AP), January 23
2007 Iran plans to conduct missile war games, apnews, January 21
2007 Russia completes Iran missile deliveries, Herald Sun, January
23 2007 World view of US goes from bad to worse, bbc.co.uk, January
23 2007 Brzezinski: Bush Iran policy 'stupid', Iranmania, January 24
2007 Prominent lobbyist Perle: US will attack Iran if it obtains
nukes, January 22 2007 COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSISAre Saudis waging an oil price war on Iran? MSNBC, January 23
2007 Debunking Iran's nuclear myth makers, Asia Times, January 25
2007 International mobilisation to stop war against Iran,
Globalresearch, January 24 2007 N Korea helping Iran with nuclear testing, Daily Telegraph,
January 24 2007 |
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