IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 77 - 19 January 2007

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SUMMARY

• Iran shoots down US drone
• Concerns over US-Iran crisis - increased media predictions of war
• Tehran aims for diplomatic support from global south
• Expansion of Iran's enrichment capacity continues

After the marked hardening of US policy toward Iran and the seizure of five Iranian diplomats in Iraq last week - seen by some as an attempt to lure Tehran into retaliation - Iran has reportedly shot down a US spy drone. Sorties of unmanned US reconnaissance aircraft over Iran are common, but Iranian challenges rare. Whilst details are still scarce, the downing of the spy plane could either indicate Iranian skittishness in an increasingly tense region, or a decision to further toughen its position toward Washington.

There is increased pessimism around the fear that military action may be in the offing. After meeting President Bush, NBC's Tim Russert indicated that there is a "strong sense in the upper echelons of the White House that Iran is going to surface relatively quickly as a major issue...in a very acute way". Retired US air force Colonel Sam Gardiner has written that US forces would be in a position to attack Iran by the end of February. Arab Times Editor in Chief, Ahmed al-Jarallah, has forecast that the US will actually launch carrier-based air strikes by April. However, it should be noted that previous predictions of military action have, of course, not yet materialised, and that there remain considerable obstacles in Washington to US action. Ahmadinejad has openly dismissed threats of action.

On Capitol Hill, Congressmen have stepped up legislative activity on Iran. Congressman Walter Jones (R-NC), introduced a bill requiring specific congressional authorization prior to the use of military force against Iran. "One of the many lessons from our involvement in Iraq is that Congress needs to ask the right questions prior to exercising its Constitutional authority to approve the use of military force," Jones said. Congressman John Murtha (D-Pa.) told Congressional Quarterly that such a resolution is "certain."

Despite claims that a worried Iran has sought Saudi help to promote dialogue with the US, Tehran continues to upgrade its uranium enrichment capacity. Attempting to rally support from the global south, Iran has invited members of the Non-Aligned Movement, the G-77 and the Arab League to visit its nuclear facilities. Washington will likely be unimpressed by Iran's attempts at transparency, and has again refused to rule out the use of force to resolve the issue. French plans to send an emissary to Iran to discuss regional issues have been criticised by Condoleezza Rice.

Reports this week in the western media spoke of increasing concern within Iran over the turn of events, the state of the economy, and criticism of President Ahmadinejad's position. Though this is not necessarily a sign of positive change, it demonstrates that, domestically at least, Ahmadinejad's appeal has started to wane.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran shoots down U.S. spy drone amid growing military pressure, xinhuanet.com, January 16 2007
News of the downing comes as the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS John Stennis left the United States for the Middle East.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/17/content_5615540.htm

Iran rejects US claims as Iraq tensions rise, Iranmania, January 15 2007
Iran has dismissed allegations that its five consular staff seized by US forces were engaged in the insurgency.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=48898&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Kuwait media: US military strike seen on Iran by April, xinhuanet.com, January 14 2007
Arab Times Editor in Chief Ahmed al-Jarallah has forecast that the attack will be sea borne, with US Patriot missiles protecting Arab states from Iranian retaliation.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/14/content_5604565.htm

Tehran seeks Riyadh's help to ease tensions with Washington, Jordan Times, January 16 2007
Reportedly alarmed by increasing hostility from the US, Iran is considering using Saudi Arabia as a channel for negotiations with the Bush administration.
http://www.jordantimes.com/tue/news/news4.htm

Tehran denies seeking Riyadh help on US ties, gulftimes, January 17 2007
Iran has rejected reports that it has sought to engage the US through Saudi Arabia.
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?
cu_no=2&item_no=127866&version=1&template_id=37&parent_id=17

Iran says pressing ahead with expanded enrichment, New York Times, January 15 2007
Despite increasing pressure from the United States, Iran will continue the installation of 3000 centrifuges in its uranium enrichment programme.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-iran-nuclear.html?
_r=3&or&oref=slogin

White House: Can't rule out attack on Iran, cnn.com, January 14 2007
The Bush administration continues to keep 'all options on the table'.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/01/14/iran.us/index.html?
section=cnn_latest

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Taunting Iran, Joseph Cirincione - Centre for American Progress, January 16 2007
US administration's recent actions, including military build-up, look designed to find causi belli, perhaps by provoking Iran into some kind of action that could justify a military assault. Congress must act to prevent regional conflagration.
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/01/taunting_iran.html

US lacks explosive evidence against Iran, Asia times, January 18 2007
Despite US allegations that Iran is fuelling the insurgency in Iraq, Washington has yet to provide solid proof.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA18Ak02.html

The US-Iran-Iraq-Israeli-Syrian War, consortiumnews.com, January 12 2007
Fears that the Iraq conflict and US-Iran tension could explode into a region wide war.
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2007/011107.html

Keeping all eyes focused on Iraq while Bush and Israel plot attack on Iran, onlinejournal, January 12 2007
US moves in Iraq are said to be the precursor to an attack on Iran.
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_1633.shtml

It's all about Iran...Washington wants war, Antiwar.com, January 15 2006
'All indications point to a strike at the Iranians before Bush leaves office.'
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=10328

Opening a new front in the war, against the Iranians, New York Times (fairuse), January 15 2007
The Bush White House's declaration that it will target Iranian networks involved in the Iraqi insurgency, is seen as part of a wider strategy to attack Iran.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/nyt793.html

Next target Tehran, The Guardian, January 15 2007
Adds to the growing sense that the Bush administration is bent on forcing a showdown with Iran.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1990326,00.html

Bush's Iraq plan: Goading Iran into war, Electronic Iraq January 15 2007
The US is seen as deliberately attempting to provoke Iran into war.
http://electroniciraq.net/news/printer2820.shtml

Iran: Pieces in place for escalation, Globalresearch, January 16 2007
Noting recent US military announcements on deployments to the Middle East, retired US airforce Colonel, Sam Gardiner, predicts developments that may pave the way to a US attack on Iran.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=GAR20070116&articleId=4483