IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 76 - 12 January 2007

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SUMMARY

• President Bush announces policy on Iraq… implications for Iran
• Report: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran
• Iran may develop nuclear weapons if threatened
• Ahmadinejad to reveal nuclear advances in February celebrations

George Bush made a heavily-trailed address to the nation on January 10th, outlining his decision to increase the number of troops in Iraq by around 22,000. Rejecting the Iraq Study Group's recommendations to work with Iran for solutions to instability within Iraq, he also warned "We'll interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq." It was unclear whether this might include action that crossed borders. Within hours US forces captured and detained Iranian officials in Irbil, northern Iraq, and Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, warned that the US would not tolerate others supporting instability within Iraq.

Talk of war over Iran's nuclear programme has continued in some quarters. The Sunday Times this week reported that Israel has plans for the use of nuclear weapons against Iran. Reportedly, the Israeli air force has already flown long-distance practise missions the length of the Mediterranean to Gibraltar, gearing itself up for an attack on Iran in case the US backs down over the nuclear standoff. Israeli officials have dismissed the story; Iran has warned that it would retaliate in the event of an attack. Even before the Sunday Times report, Iran's Chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, is said to have hinted that Iran might develop nuclear weapons if threatened. All this adds to increased anxieties in the Middle East, with the UAE already rejecting the idea of regional complicity in any attack on Iran.

In a move that will add to the growing brinkmanship, it was this week reported that, in early February, President Ahmadinejad would reveal key developments in Iran's nuclear programme. This will coincide with the 10-Day Dawn Celebrations of the 28th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. It is anticipated that he will confirm the installation of an increased number of centrifuges at the Natanz facility, possibly numbering in the low thousands. This would be an open rejection of resolution 1737 passed on December 23 2006 whichgives Iran 60 days to end all uranium enrichment activities in order to avoid sanctions. Ahmadinejad will no doubt be attempting to rally increased national support for the nuclear programme and his stand-off with the Western powers and Israel. The Majlis (Iranian parliament) has passed a resolution requesting the government 'review its relations' with IAEA inspectors.

Carlos Coke and Paul Ingram (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

President's Address to the Nation, January 10 2007
President announces troop increases, and warns Iran that it will use force to disrupt networks that support insurgents.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/
2007/01/20070110-7.html

US to target anti-Iraq activity, BBC online, January 11 2007
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has warned that the US will take action against countries destabilising Iraq. Troops have captured and detained Iranian officials in Irbil.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6252567.stm

Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran, Timesonline.co.uk, January 07 2007
Israel reportedly plans to use nuclear weapons against targets in Iran associated with its nuclear programme.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2535310_1,00.html

Iran answers strike threat report, reuters.com, January 07 2007
Iran has warned that it would respond to any Israeli attack.
http://today.reuters.com/tv/videoStory.aspx?isSummitStory=
false&storyId=9649f81fb3c7f459f8ae4b8188fd1230642d1dab
&WTmodLoc=Home-R6-Video-4

Israel denies planning Iran nuke attack, ap.org, January 07 2007
Israel has denied the Sunday Times report.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/ISRAEL_IRAN_NUCLEAR?
SITE=IACED&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Iran: If threatened, we may alter opposition to gaining nukes, Haaretz, January 06 2007
Ali Larijani, Iran's Chief nuclear envoy, has hinted that Iran might decide to develop nuclear weapons if threatened.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/810048.html

Iran N-celebration to coincide with 10-Day Dawn, Iranmania, January 07 2007
President Ahmedinejad will reportedly deliver news of progress on Iran's nuclear programme during the 28th anniversary celebrations of the Iranian revolution.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/Default.asp?
ArchiveNews=Yes&NewsCode=48652&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

'UN resolution 1737 strengthened Iranian unity', Iranmania, January 010 2007
The comments by Ali-Akbar Nateq-Nouri, a member of Iran's Expediency Council, reflect wider analysis, which suggests that the nuclear issue generates credibility for an otherwise unpopular leader.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/Default.asp?
ArchiveNews=Yes&NewsCode=48724&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

UAE rules out US or Israeli strikes from its soil, The Daily Star, January 10 2007
The UAE appears to have rejected the prospect of allowing US forces to attack Iran from its soil.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?
edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=78380

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Focus: Mission Iran, Timesonline.co.uk, January 07 2007
The Sunday Times on Israeli's alleged plan to use nuclear weapons against Iran.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2535177_1,00.html

Nuclear War: US or Israeli attack in Iran could contaminate Middle East, January 06 2007
Describes the after effects of a nuclear attack on Iran.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=ROS20070106&articleId=4354

Are Bush's wars winding down or heating up?, Counterpunch, January 08 2007
Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary to the Treasury during the Reagan government, suggests the dangers in ignoring the threat of a US/Israeli attack on Iran.
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts01082007.html

Ominous signs of a wider war, The Nation, January 08 2007
Internet analysis suggests that the appointment of Richard Fallon, a former carrier commander, to replace ground forces commander Gen. John Abizaid in Iraq, presages an air naval campaign against Iran.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070122/klare

Iran takes another look at nuclear treaty, Asia Times, January 11 2007
Questions whether Iran will carry out its threat to leave the NPT, in response to the passing of resolution 1737.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA11Ak05.html