IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 75 - 5 January 2007

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SUMMARY

• UN sanctions on Iran agreed - but where next?
• Iran to press ahead with nuclear programme
• Western powers consider action outside UN
• US-Iran tensions rise in Iraq

December 23 saw a unanimous agreement at the UN Security Council imposing sanctions against Iran. However, few believe these measures will do anything to curtail its nuclear programme at this stage. President Ahmadinejad has reiterated his position that Iran will continue with its nuclear ambitions and in characteristically provocative language, was quoted this week as saying that "Iran has the fuel cycle and very soon will push the button on nuclear fuel for industrial uses". Iranian government Spokesman Gholam-Hussein Elham has also said that 3,000 centrifuges will be operational at the Natanz nuclear facility by March.

In response to the UN resolution, the Majlis (Iran's Parliament) passed a bill on December 27 that could limit the country's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The bill, approved 161 to 15 with 15 abstentions, asserts that the Iranian government should "revise its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency based on the interests of Iran and its people." It is still unclear exactly what "revise its cooperation" means, but the version that passed was significantly watered down from the version initially drafted by hard-line conservatives. The Guardian Council of Islamic clerics immediately approved the bill, a step that is required for any bill to become law. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now expected to sign the bill into law.

Anticipating that sanctions will have limited impact on Iran, Western powers are reportedly considering additional means outside of the UN to pressurise and contain Tehran. However, Russia's UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, has warned against moves that might jeopardise the current consensus at the Security Council.

With the UN diplomatic agreement providing little optimism for a negotiated settlement, discussions around the military option have resumed. The Israeli think-tank, Institute for National Strategic Studies argued that only the use of force will prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons and that Israel has the ability to pre-emptively act alone. Indicative of the level of Israeli alarm over Iran's nuclear programme is the installation of a facility in the Negev desert which will be capable of detecting Iranian underground nuclear tests. Meanwhile, Russia has delivered half of the 29 advanced Tor M-1 surface to air missiles ordered by Iran and these are being deployed around its nuclear sites.

Tensions between the US and Iran flared in Iraq when US forces detained two Iranian diplomats on an official visit to the country; accusing them of being agents involved in targeting US forces. They were later released after complaints from the Iraqi authorities. In addition to the nuclear issue, Iraq provides a potentially dangerous flashpoint for conflict between Washington and Tehran.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran to launch production of industrial nuclear fuel, news.yahoo.com, January 03 2007
President Ahmadinejad is translated as saying that "Iran has the fuel cycle and very soon will push the button on nuclear fuel for industrial uses".
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070103/wl_mideast_afp/
irannuclearpolitics_070103144924

Iran: 3,000 centrifuges operational by March: ynetnews.com, January 02 2007
Iranian government Spokesman Gholam-Hussein Elham said that 3,000 centrifuges will be operational at the Natanz nuclear facility by March.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3347500,00.html

West tries a New Tack to Block Iran's Nuclear Agenda, New York Times, January 01 2007
In recognition of the weakness of the sanctions recently imposed on Iran, the Western powers are said to be considering additional measures over the coming months.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/02/world/middleeast/02sanctions.html?
pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=MW_CUSTOM

Russia warns against Iran action, Iranmania, January 04 2007
Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, advised against unilateral action against Iran outside of the UN, following Security Council agreement on sanctions.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/default.asp?
NewsCode=48569&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Think tank: Israel could attack Iran's nuclear program alone, Haaretz, January 01 2007
The Institute for National Strategic Studies has said that Iran will produce nuclear weapons unless militarily stopped, and that Israel has the ability to do so.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/808677.html

Israel to test installation to monitor Iran's nuclear activity, spacewar.com, January 02 2007
The underground facility in the Negev desert will be able to detect Iranian nuclear tests.
http://www.spacewar.com/2006/070102070343.m6qu42jj.html

Russia to sell anti-aircraft weapons to Iran, Syria, Iranmania, January 02 2007
Russia has delivered half of the 29 TorM-1 missiles ordered by Iran, and are being deployed around Iran's nuclear sites.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=48535&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Iran lays down challenge to Arab leaders, Ft.com, January 01 2007
Iran has called on Gulf Arabs to evict US forces and enter into defence alliances with Tehran.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f9580972-99b6-11db-8b6d-0000779e2340.html

US frees detained Iran diplomats, bbc.co.uk, December 29 2006
The US military accused the two of being agents involved in targeting occupation forces.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6216455.stm

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

What to do with Iran? ynetnews, December 30 2006
Israeli General Oded Tira suggests that Israel should collaborate with Saudi Arabia in urging the US, even one possibly led by Hilary Clinton, to attack Iran.
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3346275,00.html

Iran and the US: An unbreachable divide, Asia Times, January 02 2007
The standoff between Iran and the US is seen as the most dangerous in the world today and the two are said to be on a collision course in Iraq.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA03Ak10.html

Iran faces up to sanctions, Asia Times, January 02 2007
Javad Zarif, Iran's ambassador to the UN, reacts to the imposition of Security Council sanctions against Iran.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA03Ak12.html

Iran gives new global muscle a workout, December 30 2006
The Toronto Star looks back on Iran's headline grabbing moves over 2006.
http://www.thestar.com/News/article/166401

US unit works quietly to counter Iran's sway, The Boston Globe, January 02 2007
US military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan have apparently limited Washington's options against Iran to Cold War style containment.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/
2007/01/02/us_unit_works_quietly_to_counter_irans_sway/?
p1=email_to_a_friend

Decision-time, BBC Radio 4 discussion around military action against Iran, January 03 2007
BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson quizzes a panel drawn from the UK and US on the likelihood and consequences of military action against Iran. Audi file:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/decisiontime/pip/aicpa/