IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 74 - 24 December 2006

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SUMMARY

• UN Security Council resolution on Iran sanctions
• EU-3 dilute sanctions proposals to win over Russia
• Iran vows to step up its nuclear programme
• US to increase military presence in Persian Gulf
• Mossad Chief: Iranian bomb in 2009

The UN Security Council has unanimously passed a resolution backing sanctions against Iran following two months of intensive diplomacy. The resolution, under Chapter Seven of Article 41 of the UN Charter, makes enforcement obligatory but limits action to non-military measures. The resolution reportedly includes a ban on import and export of nuclear-related material, a freeze on the assets of 10 companies and 12 individuals, and the threat of further non-military sanctions. The original resolution was introduced by France, Germany and the UK, but has been amended several times due to objections from Russia and China, both of which wanted to see less far reaching measures.

In response to the resolution, which demands that Tehran end all uranium enrichment work, Iran has vowed to immediately resume uranium enrichment activities at its plant at Natanz. Iranian negotiation Ali Larijani stated that the Security Council resolution would "not only have no influence but make us more determined to pursue our nuclear goals even faster." The US has already called for tougher action to be taken against Iran.

President Ahmadinejad has also declared that Iran is a nuclear power and that sanctions will not deter Iran from pursuing nuclear technology. Ahmadinejad did, however, experience a significant electoral set-back in local elections this week, when voters deserted his allies to support pragmatists and reformists.

Alongside the diplomatic activity at the Security Council, it is reported that in the New Year, the US will increase its military presence in the Persian Gulf. The Bush administration apparently aims to show the Iranian leadership that, despite its weakness in Iraq, the US still has the resources to pursue a military option in resolving the nuclear crisis. The US is said to be considering the deployment of extra fighter aircraft and a second carrier battle group to the region. British minesweepers will also join the build up and in a marked hardening of his position Tony Blair called for a coalition of states to counter Iran.

This week, adding to the sense of escalating tensions into 2007 around the nuclear controversy, the head of the Israeli intelligence organisation, Mossad, forecasted that Iran might have the ability to become a nuclear weapon state by 2009.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran Vows to Defy U.N. Nuclear Sanctions, Associated Press, December 24, 2006
The UN Security Council voted unanimously Saturday to impose sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment, increasing international pressure on the government to prove that it is not trying to make nuclear weapons. Iran immediately rejected the resolution.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-UN-Iran-Nuclear.html?
_r=1&oref=slogin

Ahmadinejad rejects UN sanctions, BBC, December 24, 2006
Iran's president has rejected UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran, insisting his country would press ahead with its nuclear programme.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6207319.stm
See also: In quotes: Reaction to Iran sanctions, BBC, December 24, 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6206777.stm

Britain predicts Iran vote on Friday, Reuters, December 20, 2006
British ambassador to the UN, Emyr Jones Parry, said that he anticipated that a sanctions vote would be held on Friday 22nd December.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldnews&storyID=
2006-12-21T012154Z_01_N20169323_RTRUKOC_0_
US-IRAN-NUCLEAR-UN-RESOLUTION.xml&
pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=
NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage2

EU3 further weaken Iran draft text to allay Russia, Kuwaiti News Agency (KUNA), December 21 2006
The EU3 countries are said to have watered down the proposal to ban the travel activities of Iranian nuclear scientists.
http://www.kuna.net.kw/Home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=936201

Russia criticizes West over UN draft on Iran, Iranmania, December 21 2006
Moscow continues to express doubts over whether it can support Western initiatives for punitive measures against Iran.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=48242&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Ahmadinejad: Iran now nuclear power, ynetnews, December 20 2006
President Ahmadinejad has reportedly declared that Iran is a 'nuclear power.'
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3342489,00.html

US and Britain to add ships to Persian Gulf in signal to Iran, New York Times (Fairuse), December 21 2006
The US is considering the deployment of two carrier groups to the Persian Gulf region.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/sf/nyt12_21_6_6.htm

Blair calls for anti-Iran alliance, Alalam News, Dec 20 2006
Tony Blair's public stance on Iran has notably hardened in recent weeks.
http://www.alalam.ir/English/en-NewsPage.asp?
newsid=021030120061220144537

Mossad Chief: No Iran bomb until 2009, UPI, December 20 2006
Mossad Chief, Meir Dagan, told the Knesset in a hearing this week that Iran would not have the capacity to build a nuclear bomb until 2009 at the earliest.
http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=
20061220-015839-2750r

Dollar dropped in Iran asset move, BBC, December 18 2006
Iran will shift its foreign currency holdings from dollars to euros and use the euro in overseas transactions. It is understood that Iran will continue to accept dollars in payment for oil exports.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6190865.stm

Iran's election backlash, Open Democracy, December 19 2006
After 18 months in power, President Ahmadinejad suffered an electoral setback in this week's local council elections.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-irandemocracy/
elections_4197.jsp

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

You're attacking the wrong nation, Mr Blair, Timesonline December 21 2006
As the home and main funding source of Al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia is depicted as a bigger threat than Iran.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2513337,00.html

White House accused of censorship, LA Times, December 19 2006
The White House has allegedly stifled revelations that Iran attempted to make overtures to the Bush administration following the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fg-censor19dec19,0,1846868.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Holy warriors set sights on Iran, Asia Times, December 20 2006
The US Christian Right, a key constituency of the Bush administrations, seeks military action to address Iran's controversial nuclear programme.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HL21Ak01.html

Brown's first job must be free to break free of US shackles, December 21 2006
UK Chancellor Gordon Brown, who is almost certain to replace Tony Blair as Prime Minister in 2007, may find it difficult to distance himself from the Bush administration.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1976577,00.html