IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 71 - 17 November 2006

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SUMMARY

• Bolton unlikely to be reconfirmed as US ambassador to UN
• Iran aims for installation of 3,000 centrifuges by February 2007
• Blair suggests new relations with Iran and Syria on Iraq and Middle East
• Bush: Iran must halt uranium enrichment before talks on Iraq
• Questions over vulnerability of US aircraft carriers

Washington has received a number of setbacks in its attempts to isolate Iran. Bush's decision to install Robert Gates in place of Donald Rumsfeld at Defense signals a possible thawing of relations with Iran, particularly in relation to negotiating security in Iraq. It also seems likely that John Bolton, who as US ambassador to the UN has personified the US' hard-line stance toward Iran, will shortly lose his position.

Sensing a possible shift in policy following publication of the Baker Report next month, Prime Minister Blair suggested that Iran and Syria could each have a part to play in stabilising Iraq. However, President Bush reiterated that a halt in Iran's nuclear fuel cycle activities (repeatedly rejected by Iran) would need to precede US-Iran negotiations.

Iran continued its strategy of open defiance. President Ahmedinajad announced Tuesday that Iran would achieve "full nuclearisation" by March 2007, widely interpreted as installing 3,000 centrifuges. This would represent a significant achievement, given Iran's current position. Warnings that Iran may limit co-operation with the IAEA in the wake of Security Council sanctions were repeated, as were threats of retaliation should Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

Questions have also emerged over US military capabilities. Iranian TV released footage allegedly shot by an Iranian pilot-less aircraft (a drone) overflying a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf. This broadcast coincided with reports that a Chinese submarine stalked the carrier Kitty Hawk in the Pacific undetected and came within torpedo firing range.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Bolton's chances of confirmation 'Nil', officials say, November 10 2006
With a Republican controlled Senate refusing to confirm Bolton in his position of US ambassador to the UN, it is even more unlikely that the Democrats will endorse him in the New Year.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/nyt596.html

Blair challenges Iran and Syria to help on Iraq, The Scotsman (Reuters), November 12 2006
Tony Blair has said that a partnership is possible with Syria and Iran to bring stability to Iraq and the wider Middle East.
http://news.scotsman.com/latest_uk.cfm?id=1677472006

Bush says Iran must forsake arms before any talks, Bloomberg, November 13 2006
Despite suggestions for meaningful dialogue with Iran over Iraq, President Bush has said that Iran must end its nuclear activities before this can occur.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aEcrbiv1n0gQ

Iran says it will be 'fully nuclear' soon, FT.com, November 14 2006
Iran is said to have recently began the installation of 3,000 centrifuges, with aims to eventually install over 60,000.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/63f89022-742c-11db-8dd7-0000779e2340.html

Iran warning on UN resolution, bbc.co.uk, November 10 2006
Iran has repeated its warning that it may end co-operation with the IAEA in response to UN Security Council sanctions.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6135004.stm

Iran vows to hit back if Israel attacks, India Daily, November 11 2006
Following Israeli threats against Iran over its nuclear programme, Iran has warned of retaliation.
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1063450

Iran TV broadcasts 'US ship spy plane footage', AFP, November 12 2006
Iranian TV showed footage of a US super-carrier, apparently taken by a pilotless drone aircraft. If true, the significance of this would lie in the aircraft's ability to get so close to the ship undetected.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=47188&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

China sub stalked US fleet, The Washington Times, November 13 2006
Along with the Iranian footage, the incident involving the Chinese submarine raises questions over the vulnerability of US super-carriers.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20061113-121539-3317r.htm

UN sleuths find plutonium at Iran atom site: IAEA, WashingtonPost.com, November 14 2006
IAEA agents have found traces of plutonium at a nuclear research site in Iran.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2006/11/14/AR2006111400875_pf.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Iran Hawks reorganise, The American Prospect, November 13 2006
American proponents of regime change in Iran are seen to be re-emerging, even after US failure in Iraq and the defeat of the Republicans in the mid-term elections.
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=
ViewWeb&articleId=12209

Bush goes over to Imperial defence, Tomdispatch.com, November 14 2006
Following the humbling of the US in Iraq, and the losses at the mid-term elections, US foreign policy is seen as entering a new 'defensive' posture. The appointment of Robert Gates as replacement for Donald Rumsfeld is seen as diminishing the likelihood of a US attack on Iran.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?pid=140248

Exiting Iraq, with help from Iran, Christian Science Monitor, November 15 2006
Iran is reportedly poised to fill the vacuum left by a US-UK withdrawal from Iraq, and that Tehran will subsequently become central to wider Middle East discussions.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1115/p08s02-comv.html

Why stop the Great Satan? He's driving himself to hell, The Guardian, November 15 2006
Simon Jenkins notes the irony in British and American suggestions of overtures to Iran to gain help on Iraq.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1948057,00.html

Incoherence stymies US Iran policy, Asia Times, November 16 2006
The US position on Iran, though evolving, is caught between addressing Israeli concerns and suggestions over dialogue with Iran.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HK16Ak02.html