IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 70 - 9 November 2006

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SUMMARY

• Rumsfeld in sensational resignation as Republicans routed at mid-terms
• Security Council deadlock leads to open diplomatic conflict
• Concern over Middle East nuclear 'break-out'
• Poll: International worries Bush will attack Iran
• Iran continues military exercises and weapons tests

With Donald Rumsfeld's unexpected resignation after the dramatic Republican defeat in the US mid-term elections, there is a possibility that US policy toward Iran could shift significantly. Rumsfeld is to be replaced by former CIA Director Robert Gates. Gates recently served as a member of the Iraq Study Group (ISG); a bipartisan commission headed by foreign policy pragmatist, James Baker III, to investigate alternative strategies for Iraq. It is due to report in December 2006 or January 2007. It is anticipated that one key recommendation will be for direct negotiations to take place between the US and Syria and Iran over the stabilisation of Iraq. In 2004, Gates also co-chaired a Council on Foreign Affairs Task Force that resulted in a report called 'Iran: Time For a New Approach', recommending direct US engagement. Gates is associated with the pragmatic wing of the Republican Party and is expected to by sympathetic to the multilateral strategy promoted by Condoleeza Rice. Gates' participation in the re-appraisal of the US situation in Iraq, and his earlier advocacy of rapprochement with Iran, might inform a more flexible approach on the Iranian nuclear issue.

Negotiations over the Iranian resolution in the Security Council have been tough; wrangling over the Russia position has caused worsening tensions between the US and Russia. Wang Guangya, the Chinese Ambassador to the UN, stated that there were fundamental, and perhaps unbridgeable, elements of disagreement, rendering a swift conclusion to negotiations unlikely.

Meanwhile, reports emerged of a regional nuclear break out. The Times reported Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia had informed the IAEA of plans to develop nuclear energy technologies, with Tunisia and the UAE also expressing interest.

Iran continued its war games, test-firing several weapons systems. These included three types of land-based anti-ship missiles, capable of striking shipping throughout the Gulf, as well as rockets and a canon claimed to have a range of 45 miles. On Sunday, Revolutionary Guards Commander-in-chief, Yahya Rahim Safavi, reportedly stated that Iran has thousands of suicide bombers ready to attack US forces in Iraq in the event of war. The pitch of Iranian defiance this week also manifested itself in demonstrations commemorating the 1979 storming of the US embassy.

An international EKOS poll showed majorities in Mexico, Canada and Britain expect President Bush to attack Iran within the next two years.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Rumsfeld replaced after poll loss, BBC news, 8 November 2006
Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, sensationally resigned after the Republicans were defeated at the mid-term elections.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6130296.stm

At the UN, discord over confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions, New York Times, 8 November 2006
Disagreements appear to be widening as a meeting on Tuesday aimed at formally discussing a draft proposal for sanctions unexpectedly broke up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/08/world/middleeast/08nations.html?
_r=2&ref=world&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

US hits Russia on erosion of nuclear sanctions, Washington Times, 8 November 2006
Underlying Russia-US tensions are becoming more visible in the Iran nuclear debate.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/world/20061107-093646-4515r.htm

China: Security Council Divided on Iran, Washington Post, 7 November 2006
China's ambassador to the UN, Wang Guangya, unusually gave a pessimistic assessment of the state of the diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/11/07
/AR2006110701951_pf.html

Six Arab states join rush to go nuclear, The Times, 4 November 2006
Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the UAE are all considering nuclear programmes.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2436948,00.html

Poll: Bush policy threatens world peace, The State.com (AP), 3 November 2006
Majorities in Britain, Canada and Mexico are concerned that the US may attack Iran or North Korea during the last 2 years of the Bush administration.
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/15924443.htm

Iran tests three new missiles in Persian Gulf, Novosti, 3 November 2006
The anti-ship missiles have a range of between 75 and 120 miles, putting all Persian Gulf shipping within range.
http://en.rian.ru/world/20061103/55356329.html

Iran tests new automatic canon in war games, yahoo.com, 6 November 2006
Iran continues to demonstrate its military capabilities as tensions with the US persist.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061106/wl_mideast_afp/iranmilitaryweapons

Iran ready to share missile systems with other, New York Times, 6 November 2006
Revolutionary Guards Commander-in-chief, Yahya Rahim Safavi reportedly Al-Alam TV that Iran has thousands of suicide bombers ready to attack US forces in Iraq, in the event of a US strike.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-iran-missiles.html?_r=2&
adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&pagewa=&adxnnlx=1162989158
-UFAfE2amTajrZzhp7GI2UQ&oref=slogin

Iranians defiant at hostage anniversary, Reuters, 4 November 2006
Demonstrations coincided with heightened tensions with the US over Iran's nuclear programme.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=newsOne
&storyID=2006-11-04T104706Z_01_L04104451_RTRUKOC_0_
US-IRAN-USA.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-C1-TopStories-newsOne-2

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Nuclear steps put region on brink of most fearful era yet, The Times, 4 November 2006
Richard Beeston assesses the repercussions of the announcement that six Arab states are considering the development of nuclear technology.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2436843_1,00.html

What to do before Tehran gets the Bomb, Cato Institute, 2 November 2006
Comment from the right wing Cato Institute suggests a Grand Bargain rapprochement between the US and Iran to solve the crisis.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6742

The Case for Engagement, The Nation, 4 November 2006
A visit to Iran by former weapons inspector Scott Ritter overturned preconceived ideas and stereotypes.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061120/ritter

Russia plays a double game over Iran, Asia Times, 3 November 2006
Russian geostrategic interests in Iran inform its vacillating Security Council policy over the nuclear stand-off.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HK04Ak02.html