IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 69 - 3 November 2006

If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. Please e-mail comments by reply to Carlos Coke on iran at basicint.org

An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

• Security Council impasse as Russia and China oppose sanctions plan
• Iran confirms increase in uranium enrichment activity
• Iran launches war games in reply to US-led manoeuvres
• US diplomat - Iran bigger threat than North Korea
• Poll: Americans move away from militaristic foreign policy

The sense of drift in Security Council talks on sanctions against Iran continues, with Russia and China indicating their opposition to the current draft resolution, due to be discussed today (Friday). Whilst both countries have agreed in principle to punitive measures, they consider the proposal tabled jointly by Britain, France and Germany as too strong. With the US regarding the European plan - with its exemption of the Bushehr project - as too weak, the diplomatic process looks set to be even more protracted. Iran's confirmation this week that it had increased its uranium enrichment capacity, confirms their confidence and raises further doubts over the prospect of a breakthrough in negotiations.

As the search for a generally satisfactory political solution faces impasse, military tensions have increased. After raising concerns over US-led military exercises in the Persian Gulf, Iran has begun staging its own manoeuvres, which will run until November 11th. The Iranian armed forces are reported to have test-fired dozens of missiles, including a version of the Shahab III ballistic missile that carries 1400 bomblets. With a range of some 1200 miles, the Shahab III is capable of reaching targets in Israel and US bases throughout the Middle East.

Reflecting the level of tension and the depth of US concerns over Iran, a US Under Secretary of State, Robert Joseph this week said that Iran was more of a threat than Stalinist North Korea. This despite North Korea's exit from the NPT and its recent test of a nuclear device. Joseph's comments indicate that the US may well attempt a more determined and assertive stance against Tehran than it did with Pyongyang, this despite frequent analysis suggesting it was the Bush Administration's failure to negotiate in good faith with North Korea that thrust the Hermit Kingdom into its current stance.

However, although the Bush administration insists that all 'options are on the table', an Angus Reid survey, taken ahead of the November 7th US Congressional elections, shows less domestic enthusiasm for a continued militaristic US foreign policy. Whether this will curtail the possibility of future action against Iran is open to question.

Carlos Coke (BASIC)

STORIES AND LINKS

Russia, China won't back Iran sanctions, The Clarion-Ledger (through AP), November 02 2006
Whilst Russia and China consider current proposals for sanctions too strong, the US regards them as being too weak.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_NUCLEAR?
SITE=MSJAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Iran urges foreign troops not to damage Gulf peace, Chinaview.cn, November 01 2006
Iran has raised concerns over the US-led naval exercises in the Persian Gulf.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=20061101&articleId=3658

Iran fires missiles in gulf war games, Al Jazeera, November 02 2006
After recent US-co-ordinated exercises, Iran is holding its own military exercises in the Persian Gulf.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E974E7AF-BC99
-4543-93FB-9A2DB5EBF417.htm

Iran confirms has stepped up U-enrichment, Iranmania, October 29 2006
Iran has confirmed that it has increased its uranium enrichment capacity.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/default.asp?NewsCode=
46793&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

US Diplomat: Iran bigger threat than North Korea, NewsMax.com, October 31 2006
US Under Secretary of State, Robert Joseph, said that Iran is much more 'complex and dangerous than even North Korea'.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/10/31/141412.shtml?s=ic

West can't impose democracy on Middle East, Khaleej Times, November 02 2006
In a speech at Chatham House, former Iranian President, Mohammad Khatami, criticised President Bush's alleged desire to export democracy to the Middle East.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/
2006/November/middleeast_November18.xml&section=middleeast

Bush: I would understand an Israeli attack on Iran, International Jerusalem Post, November 02 2006
President Bush is supposed to have made the comment in a discussion with French president Jacques Chirac.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1162378311136&
pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Staying the course, win or lose, Washington Post, November 02 2006
Even after a Republican defeat at the mid-terms next week, the US is apparently unlikely to undertake fundamental, long term foreign policy changes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/11/01/
AR2006110102972.html

A scramble for friends over Iran, Asia Times, November 01 2006
The US is exaggerating the Iranian nuclear threat to frighten the Gulf Arab states into accepting an American military presence.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HK01Ak02.html

Americans reject current foreign policy doctrine, Angus-Reid, October 29 2006
After the failure of the US-led mission in Iraq, American opinion is moving away from a militaristic foreign policy.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/13620

Iran sounds an awful lot like Iraq, LA Times, October 29 2006
Highlights similarities between the legislation passed concerning Iraq prior to the 2003 war, and that being passed regarding Iran now.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-sawyer29oct29,0,3390725.story

The worst is yet to come, Counterpunch.org, October 31 2006
William Lind cites rumours of a major event between the mid-term elections and Christmas 2006.
http://www.counterpunch.org/lind10312006.html