IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 68 - 26 October 2006

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SUMMARY

• UN agreement on sanctions slow - disagreement between US and Europeans
• Iran expands uranium enrichment capacity
• US to carry out naval exercises in Persian Gulf
• Poll: 54% of Americans oppose air strikes on Iran

Almost two months since the UN's August 31st deadline divisions appear to be widening amongst the P5+1 countries on sanctions. China and Russia appear opposed to the draft resolution, authored by the Europeans, while the US is briefing on its shortcomings. The US is critical of the exemption for the Russians' construction of the Bushehr plant, and will certainly oppose the provision of uranium fuel rods next year if the current situation continues.

The IAEA has confirmed Iran's expansion of its uranium enrichment capacity. It has prepared a second cascade of 164 centrifuges and may have started to introduce uranium into it. However, progress has been much slower than Iran's plans announced earlier in the year - which envisaged 3000 working centrifuges by the end of the year.

Later this week, the US plans to carry out naval exercises in the Persian Gulf, rehearsing the interdiction of vessels carrying WMD and ballistic missile-related technologies. Iran has condemned the manoeuvres, which it sees as a demonstration of the military threat directed against it.

However, given the media attention devoted to the deteriorating security situation in Iraq and evidence of several high-profile individuals breaking ranks within official circles, war weary Americans appear unlikely to support military action against Iran at this point. An opinion poll has suggested that 54% of Americans are opposed to US air strikes.

This week, Mohammed El-Baradei, head of the IAEA, suggested that threats by Western nations might provoke weaker states to develop nuclear weapons.

Carlos Coke, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

Europeans move Iran resolution without US, IranMania, October 25 2006
The UK, Germany and France are proposing that sanctions do not apply to the Bushehr nuclear project.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=46698&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

US demands UN sanctions on Iran, BBC news website, October 26 2006
US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has asked that the Security Council implement sanctions against Iran.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6086084.stm

US Splits With Europeans Over UN Resolution Sanctioning Iran, Bloomberg, October 25 2006
Washington is concerned that the European measures are not stringent enough.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0
_WfbrQFf5s&refer=home

Russian project holds up Iran sanctions deal, Reuters, October 25 2006
The Bushehr nuclear plant is seen as a 'red line' for Russia.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=newsOne&storyID=2006
-10-25T190327Z_01_N25389459_RTRUKOC_0_US-NUCLEAR-
IRAN-UN.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-C2-TopNews-newsOne-5

Russia opposes draft resolution on Iran, Jerusalem Post, October 26 2006
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, announced that Russia's unhappiness with the EU-3's draft proposal for sanctions against Iran.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1161811209084
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

UN Official Says Iran Is Testing New Enrichment Device, NY Times, October 24 2006
IAEA head, Mohammed El Baradei, confirms that Iran has expanded its capacity for uranium enrichment activities. However, he stated that no additional uranium had yet been enriched.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/24/world/middleeast/24iran.html?_r=2
&ref=world&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Iran condemns US Gulf exercises, October 24 2006
The war games are aimed at practising the interception of vessels carrying WMD and ballistic missile related technologies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6080204.stm

Americans Rule Out Air Strikes, Invasion of Iran, October 25 2006
More than half of Americans surveyed expressed opposition to US air strikes against Iran.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/13579

IAEA Chief: Western Threats May Encourage Nuclear Weapons, NPR, October 25 2006 (Audio)
Following North Korea's test of a nuclear weapon earlier this month, Mohammed El Baradei suggests that threats made by Western military powers may provoke countries into developing nuclear weapons. President Bush had labelled Iraq, North Korea and Iran the 'Axis of Evil'.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6380049&ft=1&f=1004

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

US sends the wrong messages to Iran, October 25 2006
Highlights the dangers of adopting the same approach to the North Korean and Iranian nuclear controversies.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ25Ak01.html

Justifying War with Iran: A False Strategy for Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Truthout.org, October 25 2006
Discusses what are perceived as the US' nuclear double standards.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/102306F.shtml

Iran's presence in Iraq, Khaleejtimes.com, October 24 2006
Assesses the geo-strategic imperatives that inform Iranian interests in Iraq.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
xfile=data/opinion/2006/October/opinion_October77.xml&section=opinion&col

What to do before Iran gets the bomb: Apply the lessons of North Korea, San Francisco Chronicle, October 25 2006
Suggests that Iran is more of a nuclear threat to the US than North Korea and proposes a strategy to reduce it.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/10/25/
EDG6PKE0BF1.DTL&feed=rss.opinion>

The Middle East, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2006
Advances the idea that the period of US dominance in the Middle East is over and that unconditional talks with Iran over its nuclear programme should be pursued.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20061101faessay85601-p0/
richard-n-haass/the-new-middle-east.html

Time for Bush to talk to Iran and Syria, The Guardian, October 25 2006
In James Baker's report advising on the future of the US occupation of Iraq, he reportedly suggests that Iran and Syria could be invited to play a stabilising role.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1930660,00.html