IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 67 - 19 October 2006

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An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

• North Korea accession nuclear crisis still overshadows Iran controversy
• Britain, France and Germany plan draft Iran sanctions resolution for next week
• Sanctions proposals minimised to overcome Russian opposition, secure EU backing
• Iran repeats warning of retaliatory sanctions

With the United States recognition of the North Korean nuclear test, and the anticipation of another explosion, the crisis over Pyongyang's entry to the nuclear club continues to distract the focus of international attention away from the Iranian controversy.

The E3 are drafting a Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran, apparently minimal in scope to achieve Russian agreement. Russia insists that measures be informed by IAEA findings. Reports suggest that the Russian-Iranian nuclear project at Bushehr will not come within the purview of planned sanctions, feeding continuing doubts over their effectiveness. Opposition to broader sanctions also comes from within the EU. Whilst the North Korea test may have strengthened EU resolve toward Iran, significant oil interests tempers resolve. Iran has repeated its threat of retaliatory sanctions in the face of UN-legislated action. This could include reduced co-operation with the IAEA.

In a surprising admission, Mohammed El Baradei has this week expressed wider concerns that up to 30 countries have the capability to develop nuclear weapons in a short space of time, using their civil nuclear technology base.

Carlos Coke, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

UN envoys work on Iran resolution, October 18 2006
British, French and German representatives are working on the draft text of a resolution, which is expected to be submitted to a vote on adoption next week.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6064090.stm

UN sanctions to exempt Russia project, Iranmania, October 18 2006
In an attempt to overcome Russian opposition to sanctions against Iran, the US, Britain and France have suggested that the Bushehr project would not be included in punitive action.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/default.asp?
NewsCode=46535&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Russia - Action on Iran must be based on IAEA reports, October 18 2006
Moscow wants any UN Security Council action against Iran to be informed by the IAEA.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20061018/54907115.html

EU set to back limited sanctions against Iran, Reuters, October 17 2006
After extending negotiations beyond the August 31st deadline for the suspension of uranium enrichment, the EU is now poised to support, albeit limited, sanctions against Iran.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=
2006-10-17T150642Z_01_L17764198_RTRUKOC_0_
US-NUCLEAR-IRAN-EU.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsHome-
C1-topNews-4

Iran atomic aide warns of retaliation to sanctions, Khaleejtimes, October 18 2006
Iran has again warned that it may lessen its co-operation with the IAEA in response to UN sanctions.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
xfile=data/middleeast/2006/October/middleeast
_October321.xml&section=middleeast&col

IAEA says up to 30 more countries could develop nuclear weapons, Bignewsnetwork.com, October 18 2006
El Baradei's remarks come the week after North Korea became the ninth member of the nuclear club.
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=9f31fa655911c5db

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Beware Empire in Decline, Asia Times, October 18 2006
As the US' geopolitical fortunes wane, Michael Klare suggests that this might lead the Bush administration to embark on ill-conceived action against countries such as Iran and North Korea.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ19Ak01.html

Voting Against Nuclear War with Iran, October 16 2006
Jorge Hirsch, Professor of Physics at San Diego University argues that North Korea's entry into the nuclear club makes it more likely that the US will feel the need to act tough and attack Iran.
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/1016-32.htm

The North Korea Effect, October 17 2006
Argues that the North Korean nuclear test may dampen Bush administration plans for action against Iran.
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/10/17/the_north_korea_effect.php

Is War With Iran Inevitable? October 11 2006
Former weapons inspector, David Kay, and retired Air Force, Colonel Sam Gardiner, appeared before a congressional briefing on the possibilities of a US attack on Iran. (Video.)
http://websrvr20.audiovideoweb.com/avwebdswebsrvr2143/news_video/
iran512K.mov