IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 65 - 6 October 2006

If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. Please e-mail comments by reply to Carlos Coke on iran at basicint.org

An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

• EU-Iran talks deadlocked
• US gives Iran until end of the week before seeking sanctions
• US: world could live without Iranian oil for 18 months
• Condoleeza Rice on Mid-East tour - Iran on the agenda
• Sam Gardiner: 90% confident of US attack in 3 to 4 months

Despite earlier optimism, hopes that EU-Iran negotiations would lead to a diplomatic compromise over the ongoing nuclear crisis have this week diminished. Iran's refusal to relinquish what it sees as its legitimate uranium enrichment rights - as protected under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - has led to an impasse. The US, which ostensibly supported additional negotiations after Iran missed the August 31st ultimatum, now says that it will begin pressing for sanctions after the end of this week. Whilst EU countries had, along with China and Russia, been hesitant regarding punitive measures against Iran, Britain and France have now indicated that they may support US-led initiatives on sanctions.

Meanwhile, perhaps in anticipation of disruptions to the global oil supply, the US Congress' Government Accountability Office (GAO) has attempted to reassure the international community that the use of international strategic reserves could stave off any severe economic impact for 18 months if Iranian oil were taken off the market. This week has also seen the collapse of the Iran-Japan Azadegan oil deal, following Iran's September 15th deadline to Japan for conclusion. Given increased international competition over hydrocarbon energy resources, and Japan's total reliance on energy imports, the failure of the $2bn deal may signify that the wider diplomatic process has come to an end. The US was said to have been hostile to the deal.

Despite reports that Iran is encountering problems in its enrichment activities, reports have emerged suggesting that some in the Bush Administration are starting to accept the fact of Tehran's nuclear programme. Many also recognise that the costs of war with Iran outweigh the benefits, so that the threat of US military action appears to have receded. However, retired US Air Force colonel, Sam Gardiner, has said with '90% confidence', that there will be a US attack on Iran over the next 3 to 4 months.

Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary State, this week undertook a visit to the Middle East, with Iran said to be on the agenda.

Carlos Coke, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

No deal in Iran nuclear talks, says Solana, optusnet, 05 October 2006
Iran refused to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.
http://www.optusnet.com.au/news/story/abc/20061005/06/international/
1755805.inp

US wants Iran answer in nuclear standoff this week: official, ncr-Iran, 03 October 2006
The US has given EU-Iran negotiations until the end of the week before seeking sanctions.
http://www.ncriran.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2333
&Itemid=71

Britain ready to slap sanctions on Iran over nuclear work, ncr-Iran. 03 October 2006
Britain has signalled its readiness to join the US in pursuing sanctions against Iran.
http://www.ncr-iran.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=
2334&Itemid=71

France favors 'progressive' sanctions if Iran refuses to suspend nuclear programme, Xinhua net, 04 October 2006
France appears to be joining the Britain and the US in seeking sanctions if EU-Iran negotiations fail.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/04/content_5169400.htm

US, world reserves can offset Iran oil for 18 months, Reuters, 03 October 2006
The US attempts to allay fears over disruption to global crude oil supplies.
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=N03243800

Iran says Japan mega oil deal off after talks fails, Yahoo (AFP), 04 October 2006
Despite the continuation of negotiations after Iran delivered a September 15th deadline for conclusion of the deal, the initiative has now been scrapped.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061004/wl_mideast_afp/iranoiljapan2ndlead
_061004194034;_ylt=An66IYz4cs1i3dT.GjN5M10UewgF;
_ylu=X3oDMTA2ZGZwam4yBHNlYwNmYw--

Iran's Uranium Glitch, Washington Post, 29 September 2006
Intelligence reports claim that Iran is facing technical obstacles in its uranium enrichment programme.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2006/09/28/AR2006092801453.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns"

US may accept Iranian nuclear bomb, Sunday Times, 01 October 2006
The US may learn to live with a nuclear Iran, as the threat of US military action reportedly recedes.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2383147.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

The End of the "Summer of Diplomacy": Assessing U.S. Military Options on Iran, 18 September 2006
Retired Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner warns that powerful voices in the Bush administration are making the case for air strikes. He says that these officials are undeterred by the concerns of military leaders about whether such attacks would be effective.
http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/
gardiner_summer_diplomacy.pdf

How an attack would unfold, San Francisco Chronicle, 01 October 2006
Depicts a possible scenario for a US attack on Iran.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/
2006/10/01/ING9ULB4N11.DTL&type=printable>

International News Net, 28 September 2006
Retired US Air Force colonel Sam Gardiner, states 'with 90% confidence' that the US will attack Iran over the next 3-4 months or so. (video)
http://www.innworldreport.net/archives/2006/09/28/index.html

Rice hopes to exploit Arab-Iran divide, Asia Times, 05 October 2006
Comment on the motivation behind US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice's visit to the Middle East.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ05Ak01.html

Iran: the politics of the next crisis, Opendemocracy.net, 28 September 2006
Paul Rogers suggests that, to boost its chances at the November mid-term elections, the Bush administration may raise tensions to manipulate the stand-off with Iran.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict/iran_politics_3946.jsp

Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options, CATO Institute, 18 September 2006
Ted Galen Carpenter of the libertarian think-tank, the CATO Institute, suggests that Washington should offer to normalize diplomatic and economic relations with Iran in exchange for Tehran's agreement to open its nuclear program to rigorous, on-demand international inspections to guarantee that there is no diversion of nuclear material from peaceful purposes to building weapons.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6690