IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 64 - 28 September 2006

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SUMMARY

• Optimism over talks between EU and Iran that spell early formal negotiations
• Ahmadinejad's visit to New York
• Russia keen to avoid re-run of Iraqi sanctions, and finalises timetable to supply nuclear fuel to Bushehr
• US preparations for military action

EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, and chief Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, have been in regular communication and met again in Berlin on Wednesday this week. Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, expressed confidence that pre-negotiations appeared to be bearing fruit and that both sides were offering more substantial compromises in advance of formal talks over substance. The E3 appear willing to sit down with the Iranians with the promise of temporary suspension of enrichment during (but not before) the talks. The Americans will still have no part in such a plan, though prominent Americans, including Bill Clinton, are urging the Administration to engage.

Last week Mahmood Ahmadinejad's visit to New York, including speeches and interviews, gave further insight into his and Iran's positions on the crisis. On 21 September he stated a willingness to consider a temporary suspension of enrichment "under fair and just conditions". However, European leaders are keen to keep up the pressure. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy emphasised the pre-negotiations had to be completed in the next few weeks if the Iranians were to avoid action by the international community. The deadline could be as early as early to mid October.

Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov stated clearly on Saturday that Russia would only contemplate UN sanctions if there were "concrete and incontrovertible evidence that Iran is attempting to build nuclear weapons and clear evidence that it is supporting international terrorism," referring to the mistake of UN sanctions against Iraq in the 1990s. In another deadline set at a meeting on Tuesday, Russia agreed to supply Iran with nuclear fuel for its Bushehr plant by March 2006, though Russia has pointed to safety concerns to explain apparent delays in completing construction of the plant. The Secretary-General of the Arab League reiterated his support of Iran's right to develop nuclear power whilst on a visit to Tehran on Tuesday.

The US appears to be preparing additional forces for operations in the Middle East. Reports in Time magazine and the Nation suggest that forces may be ready for an attack on Iran as early as 21 October, well in advance of Congressional elections in November. Some analysts believe that any attack is not likely until well afterwards, if for no other reason than resulting high oil prices would hurt the chances of Republican candidates.

Paul Ingram, BASIC

STORIES AND LINKS

Solana, Iran Have Weeks to Agree on Talks: Reuters, September 24 2006
Asked how much time Solana had to reach such a deal with Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said weeks, not months.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/
international-nuclear-iran-france.html?pagewanted=print

The 'Iraq Scenario' in Iran, Spiegel, September 20 2006
IAEA Inspections are the only solution to knowing what is going on in Iran's nuclear programme. Sanctions and disengagement of inspectors will only feed the uncertainty and moves towards war.
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,438210,00.html

Iran's Leader Relishes 2nd Chance to Make Waves, New York Times, September 21 2006
Ahmadinejad's address and Q&A at the Council on Foreign Relations, after an invite from Richard N. Haass, former State Dept Policy Head during Bush's first term.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/world/middleeast/21iran.html?
ei=5087%0A&en=5e5416a4de629426&ex=1158984000&pagewanted=print

Bill Clinton: U.S. Should Talk to Iran, AP, September 21 2006
Clinton urges the White House to engage with Iran: talking is essential
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Clinton-Iran.html?pagewanted=print

Russia warns against Iraq-style proof in Iran row, IranMania, September 25 2006
Russian Defence Minister said sanctions should only be considered if there was concrete evidence of a nuclear weapons programme and support for international terrorism.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=45943&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

What Would War Look Like? Time, September 17 2006
Speculation over "Prepare to Deploy" orders and fresh consideration of plans to blockade Iranian oil ports suggests that the US may be preparing for military action, or increasing the pressure on the Iranians
http://time-proxy.yaga.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1535817,00%20.html

War Signals? The Nation, September 27 2006
Indications for naval manoeuvres that the US is preparing for military action.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061009/lindorff

Russian Fuel Going to Iran Plant, AP, September 26, 2006
The agreement provides for supplying 80 tons of Russian fuel for the Bushehr atomic energy plant in March, for a physical start-up in September 2007 and electric generation by November 2007. Safety considerations are said to have delayed any earlier timetable.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2006/09/26/AR2006092600501.html and

Nations raise stakes in arms race by revealing nuclear ambitions, The Times, September 25 2006
Egypt and Turkey talk of their ambitions to expand their nuclear power programmes, sparking fears that the stand against Iran will appear exceptionalist.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,170-2373750,00.html

Clear about Iran - but not the answer, BBC World Service Opinion Poll (by GlobeSacn and PIPA), September 21 2006
Most people surveyed appear to believe Iran does intend to develop a nuclear weapon capability, but governments still would have difficulty mustering majority opinion behind sanctions, let alone military action. More people believe diplomatic action should be pursued rather than sanctions, even if Iran continues to enrich fuel.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5365754.stm

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

A Conversation with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Washington Post, September 24 2006
Direct questions to the Iranian President, with a focus on the Middle East and on the nuclear question
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/09/22/AR2006092201306.html

Ahmadinejad's Gauntlet, Washington Post, September 24 2006, comment by David Ignatius
The U.S. and Iran need each other too much not to find accommodation. However, Ahmadinejad is confident that he has the upper hand, and the US cannot do anything about it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/09/22/AR2006092201393_pf.html

Bush at the UN: Annotated, Foreign Policy in Focus, September 20 2006, Comment by Stephen Zunes
Bush's appeal to the Iranian people ring hollow, when the United States has consistently acted against democracy in Iran for the last half century and has failed to uphold UN action on other states in the region. It's rebuff of Iranian overtures and preparations for war show no respect for the Iranian people.
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3531