IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 62 - 8 September 2006

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SUMMARY

• US-led drive for sanctions faces difficulties
• Annan to international community: do not isolate Iran
• Agreement nears on Japan-Iran oil deal, despite US sanctions plans
• Polls: Europeans see US as leading threat to global security; 53% of Americans prefer military action to a nuclear Iran
• Iran: US too weak to wage another war

This week, there appears to be increased uncertainty around the US agenda for sanctions against Iran. The false consensus that appeared to have developed over the last few months - culminating in the passing of Resolution 1696 with its August 31st ultimatum - now seems to have stalled, giving way to a divergence of opinions, and slowed momentum on punitive action.

On a two-day visit to Tehran last weekend, UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, advised against isolating Iran, highlighting the Iranians' apparent willingness for further negotiations. The EU also expressed its interest in further talks with Iran, effectively extending the deadline by at least another two weeks. Since EU Foreign Ministers gave this indication, a meeting scheduled to take place in Vienna on Wednesday between Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, and EU Foreign Policy Chief, Javier Solana, was unexpectedly postponed. The meeting will now take place on Saturday 9th September, and is seen as a last ditch attempt at resolving the impasse before the EU decides on whether to support sanctions.

Following the September 15th deadline that Iran last week gave Japan to agree the $2bn development of the Azadegan oil field, the two countries are now closer to finalising the deal. This may raise further questions over the commitment of allies to any US-led sanctions initiative.

Leading powers have also expressed their opposition to military action. Whilst Russia - alternately supportive and opposed to US proposals on Iran - has again suggested that it may be open to discussing sanctions, it has reiterated its opposition to any measures that might serve as a prelude to US-led attack. Also, although Germany has said that Iran should not be allowed to challenge the authority of the UN, Berlin indicated that it would not support a military option. Early this year, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, had suggested that military action should not be ruled out.

The German position on military action perhaps reflects a general German and wider European unease over US foreign policy. An opinion poll showed that Germans would more readily accept a nuclear-armed Iran (46%) than US military action (40%). The survey on US and European attitudes to US-military action against Iran, also showed that a majority of Americans (53%) would support the use of force as a 'last resort' to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons; 43% of Europeans were in agreement. Meanwhile, an Angus Reid poll suggested that in several major European nations, the US is perceived as a bigger threat to world peace than Iran, China or North Korea.

This week Iran continued its defiant stance. On a visit to Syria on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said that the US was too weak to wage a war against Iran. Iranian Defence Minister, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, dismissed the threat of sanctions, and Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheikh Attar, repeated the Iranian warning that sanctions could lead Iran to embargo oil supplies. The Iranian parliament was also reported to have taken the first steps to ending co-operation with international nuclear authorities, as a retaliatory response to the possible imposition of sanctions.

Carlos Coke, BASIC, +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Resistance to Iran sanctions grows as powers meet, Reuters, 07 September 2006
Washington is finding it increasingly difficult to gather support for sanctions against Iran.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=newsOne&storyID
=2006-09-07T135513Z_01_L06784257_RTRUKOC_0_US-NUCLEAR-IRAN
.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt
-C1-ArticlePage3

Iran Open to Nuclear Talks Says Annan, The Guardian, 04 September 2006
UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, asks that the international community does not isolate Iran, despite its failure to meet the August 31st ultimatum detailed in Security Council Resolution 1696.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1864108,00.html

Iran given two-week deadline by European Union, International Herald Tribune, 02 September 2006
The EU has set aside 2 more weeks to ponder Iranian proposals for negotiations over its nuclear programme.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/02/africa/web.0902iran.php

Iran Abruptly Postpones Talks With EU, Forbes, 06 September 2006
The EU had set aside 2 more weeks to consider Iranian proposals for negotiations over its nuclear programme, in the wake of Tehran missing the August 31st deadline on uranium enrichment suspension. However, a planned meeting in Vienna on Wednesday between Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana, have been postponed.
http://www.forbes.com/technology/ebusiness/feeds/ap/2006/09/06/ap2997575.html

Iran-EU Meeting on Saturday Seen As Last Chance, Chico.ER, 07 September 2006
The talks will replace the cancelled Vienna negotiations.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_NUCLEAR?
SITE=CACHI&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Iran and Japan Close to Oil Deal, BBC news, 03 September 2006
Some analysts cited US pressure as the reason behind Japan's slowness in agreeing the deal.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5309904.stm

Sanctions against Iran must be peaceful and adequate, mosnews, 06 September 2006
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted that Russia might be open to supporting sanctions against Iran. At the same time, he also rejected a military option.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/09/06/nopressure.shtml

Germany Will Not Support Call for US Military Action Against Iran, All Headline News, 06 September 2006
Despite Chancellor Merkel's position at the start of the year, that military action against Iran should not be ruled out, it is now suggested that Germany will not support a US attack.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7004756646

French, Americans would back strike on Iran, Reuters, 06 September 2006
53% of Americans questioned were found to favour military action against Iran as a last resort to stop it from acquiring nuclear weapons. In Europe, the figure was 43%, with 54% in France favouring a military solution.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID
=2006-09-06T144751Z_01_L04276822_RTRUKOC_0_US-EU-USA-
POLL.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsHome-C3-politicsNews-3

Europeans see US as threat to global stability, Angus Reid, 05 September 2006
In Britain, France and Spain, the US is seen as posing a greater risk than Iran, China, Iraq and North Korea. In Germany, the US and Iran were seen as the joint gravest danger to world peace.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/13028

US Too Weak to Wage Another War Says Iranian FM, Space War (through AFP), 04 September 2006
In a visit to Syria, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that the United States is in a very weak position'.
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/
US_Too_Weak_To_Wage_Another_War_Says_Iran_FM_999.html

Iran calls sanction threat empty propaganda, Chinaview, 04 September 2006
Iran senses that there is not enough international consensus for the Security Council to implement meaningful sanctions.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-09/05/content_5049308.htm

Iran warns of oil price rise if sanctions imposed, Gulf Daily news, 03 September 2006
Iran has again raised the prospect of disruptions to Persian Gulf oil supplies.
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?
Article=154480&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=29167

Iranian Lawmakers Threaten to Keep Out UN Inspectors, RadioFreeLiberty, 05 September 2006
The Iranian parliament took the first steps toward non-cooperation with international nuclear authorities.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/9/bc396899-e040-49bb-a925-ec7ada18e461.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Defiance may invite military strike, The Times, 02 September 2006
Bronwen Maddex writes that Iran's confidence may leave the US with no choice but to attack it.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,30809-2339168,00.html

Geopolitics cast pall on hobbled Iranian economy, USA Today, 05 September 2006
Describes the inability of the Iranian economy to provide jobs for its young population.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-09-04-iran-economy-usat_x.htm?csp=34

Irrelevance of the UN, The Telegraph, 05 September 2006
The US-Iran nuclear crisis is believed to have diminished the relevance of the UN.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?
xml=/opinion/2006/09/05/dl0502.xml

Will Bush Bomb Tehran? Will the Democrats do anything different, Counterpunch.org, 05 September 2006
Alexander Cockburn questions the idea that a Democrat government would not embark on a war against Iran.
http://www.counterpunch.org/cockburn09052006.html