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IRAN UPDATENews and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programmeNo. 61 - 1 September 2006 If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. Please e-mail comments by reply to Carlos Coke on iran at basicint.org An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm. SUMMARY
As expected, Iran has not met the August 31st ultimatum presented in Security Council Resolution 1696, which called for the suspension of uranium enrichment. In the run-up to the deadline, in what the New York Times called a provocative, if symbolic, gesture, Iranian president Ahmadinejad inaugurated the heavy-water production plant at Khondab, 120 miles south-west of Tehran (this was misreported to be a reactor, when in fact the plant will produce the heavy-water coolant for the reactor planned nearby, capable of efficiently producing plutonium for nuclear weapons. There has been a united front from high-level Iranian figures across the spectrum stating that Iran would not give up its right to enrich uranium, and would only consider suspending its activities within negotiations. Whilst Iran’s rejection of the August 31st deadline was expected, the US’ reported decision to delay the pursuit of sanctions at the Security Council is perhaps surprising. It had been anticipated that Iran’s failure to meet another UN ultimatum would give Washington enough political capital to finally push for sanctions against Iran, having managed to garner Chinese and Russian support for Resolution 1696 on July 31st. However, it now appears that Beijing and Moscow have clearly expressed opposition to punitive measures against Iran at this point. Questions have therefore arisen regarding the likelihood of the US ability to secure agreement on sanctions. An article in the New York Times suggests that, aside from the tenuous US position in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Hezbollah’s success in resisting Israeli occupation of Lebanon, tacit Chinese and Russian support for moderation within the UN Security Council emboldens the Iranian leadership. If the US abandons its attempts to achieve Chapter VII action, it has been suggested that it could try to construct a sanctions-based ‘Coalition of the Willing’. Yet Japan, a very close Washington ally, which imports all of its oil, and some 15% from Iran, has already voiced reticence over sanctions, reportedly suggesting that energy-related trade be excluded. In an apparently unrelated issue, Iran has already warned Japan that its access to Iran’s Azadegan oil field may be compromised if Tokyo does not conclude the deal by September 15th. Analysts suggest that the US may have impeded Japan’s completion of negotiations with Iran. Negotiations between the major Security Council powers are due to resume next week. Meanwhile, Iran has continued its war games, in which various anti-ship missiles have been test fired. These appear to include an Iranian version of the Russian Sunburn SS-N-22, with a speed of over Mach 2 and capable of evasive terminal manoeuvres to confuse the target ship’s countermeasures, and a submarine-launched anti-ship missile. Iran seems to be openly displaying its contingencies for disrupting Persian Gulf shipping in the event of hostilities with the US. An Iranian supplied C-802 anti-ship missile is believed to have deployed by Hezbollah to cripple the Israeli naval corvette Spear, off the coast of Lebanon in mid- July. Carlos Coke, BASIC, +44 (0) 20 7324 4680 STORIES AND LINKSIran defiant on nuclear deadline, BBC news, August 31 2006 Iran Opens Plant that can produce plutonium, NY Times, August
26 2006 Iran enriching more uranium, Washington Post, August 30 2006
Iranians unfazed by looming risk of sanctions, Iranmania, August
30 2006 China Uneasy About Sanctions Against Iran, Says They'll Hurt
West, August 30 2006 Russia rejects sanctions against Iran, Reuters, August 25 2006
US may curb Iran, LA Times, August 26 2006 Iranian envoy in Japan amid nuclear showdown, Iranmania, August
31 2006 Iran eyes Russia, China if Japan stalls on oil deal, August
29 2006 Major power to discuss Iran sanctions next week, Reuters, August
30 2006 Iran tests upgraded surface-to-sea missile, India Defence, August
26 2006 Iran test-fires sub-to-surface missile, MSNBC.com, August 27
2006 Iran’s president calls for TV debate with Bush, CNN, August
30 2006 COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSISThe likely US course on Iran: Go slow, Christian Science Monitor, August
30 2006 Iran is Going Nuclear, the UN Can’t Stop It, Washington Post,
August 29 2006 Iran still rising, Al-Ahram, 24-30 August 2006 Behind the plan to bomb Iran, Asia Times, August 31 2006 |
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