IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 60 - 25 August 2006

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SUMMARY

• Iran responds to June 6th incentives: offers further talks but will not suspend uranium enrichment immediately (instead appears to offer this as a possible negotiating point)
• US says Iran proposals 'falls short' of main demands
• Russia and China hint at opposition to sanctions to US plans for sanctions
• Iran stages large-scale wargames
• Chatham House: US intervention in Middle East has strengthened Iran In the week that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took hold, debate has grown over the implications for Iran's influence in the Middle East and the impact on the continuing nuclear controversy.

On August 22nd, Iran delivered its eagerly awaited response to the June 6th package of incentives, aimed at resolving the ongoing controversy over Iran's nuclear programme. Copies of the 21-page document, which has not yet been released publicly, were given to Javier Solana, the EU Foreign Policy Chief, and the UN ambassadors of the 5 permanent members of the Security Council and Germany. However, whilst Iran offered renewed negotiations over its nuclear programme, it - not unexpectedly - maintained its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment as a precondition, the key demand of the June 6th offer and Resolution 1696 (which gave August 31st as the deadline). France has already reminded Iran of the need for suspension before negotiations can occur, whilst the US has said that Tehran's response falls short of Security Council requirements. It is reported that Washington is now moving to generate sufficient support for the implementation of sanctions against Iran.

However, China and Russia, reflecting their long-standing ambivalence toward sanctions against Iran, are again showing reluctance on supporting punitive measures. Although Moscow and Beijing did support Iran's referral to the Security Council on July 12th, and backed Resolution 1696, their renewed unease reinforces the sense that the US and its allies will find it difficult to secure Security Council backing in censuring Iran and applying sanctions.

Meanwhile, in the run-up to the August 22nd response, Iran staged the large-scale Zolfaqar wargames, in which it test-fired a number of surface-to-surface missiles. These follow the Holy Prophet Exercises in April of this year. The Zolfaqar manoeuvres are expected to cover 14 of Iran's 30 provinces and, lasting for 5 weeks, may coincide with an anticipated increase in diplomatic tension at the UN Security Council.

A Chatham House report this week also added weight to the growing consensus that the US 'War on Terror' in the Middle East has enhanced Iran's geopolitical position. The report says that Tehran has benefited from Washington's removal of rival regimes in Baghdad and Kabul. Furthermore, the suggestion that the "US-driven agenda for confronting Iran is severely compromised by the confident ease with which Iran sits in its region", raises questions over the likely success of the US' mission to diplomatically assert controls over Iran's nuclear programme.

Carlos Coke, BASIC, +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran offers West 'serious' talks, BBC news, August 22 2006
As expected, Iran did not offer to suspend uranium enrichment.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5275560.stm

Iran's proposal on nuclear programme 'falls short' US says, CNN, August 23 2006
Washington has concluded that despite Iran's offer of further talks, its response on August 22 fails to meet demands on enrichment suspension.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/08/23/us.iran/index.html

US ready to submit sanctions resolution quickly, Iranmania, August 23 2006
Since it is unlikely that Iran will accede to the August 31st deadline to suspend uranium enrichment, as set down by Resolution 1696, the US is reportedly aiming to make moves toward the implementation of sanctions against Iran.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=45218&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Russia, China back Iran's calls for negotiations to end nuclear standoff, USA Today, August 23 2006
Although backing Iran's referral to the UN Security Council on July 12th, and supporting Resolution 1696, Moscow and Beijing have reverted to their characteristic reluctance to endorse sanctions against Iran.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-08-23-iran_x.htm?csp=34

Iran sanctions could fracture coalition, New York Times, August 23 2006
The crisis in the Lebanon may undermine the US' ability to muster enough support for punitive measures against Iran.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/nyt404.html

Iran urges Europe on counterproposal, The Guardian, August 23 2006
Perhaps seeking to drive a wedge between the US and its Western allies, Iran directed the focus of new appeals for negotiations toward Europe.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6033396,00.html

Iran to announce nuclear breakthrough, Khaleejtimes, August 23 2006
Iran is reported to be on the verge of declaring a technological breakthrough in its nuclear programme.
http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
xfile=data/middleeast/2006/August/middleeast_August634.xml&
section=middleeast

Zolfaqar wargames begin in W.Azerbaijan province, globalsecurity.org (Islamic Republic News Agency-IRNA), August 22 2006
Follows the large scale Holy Prophet wargames in April 2006.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/
iran/2006/iran-060822-irna04.htm

also

Iran tests short-range missiles, Xinhuanet.com, August 20 2006
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-08/21/content_4985913.htm

US interventions have boosted Iran, says report, The Guardian, August 23 2006
Adds to a growing consensus that the US' Middle East foreign policy has increased Iran's stature in the region.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1856362,00.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

US made an offer Iran can only refuse, Asia Times, August 24 2006
The Bush administration, it is suggested, wants to see the failure of diplomacy on the Iranian nuclear programme.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH24Ak01.html

Iranian war games: Exercises, Tests, and Drills or Preparation and Mobilisation for War?
Iran's war games seen as possible preparation for conflict with the US.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=DAR20060821&articleId=3027

Beating the drums of war: US Troop Build-up: Army and marines authorize "Involuntary Conscription", Globalresearch, August 23 2006
Interprets recent US troop level increases in Iraq as a possible sign of impending conflict with Iran.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?
context=viewArticle&code=20060823&articleId=3042

Castles built on sand, openDemocracy.net, August 23 2006
Concerns the Shi'a population in Bahrain, also covering their relationship with Iran.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict-middle_east_politics/bahrain_3846.jsp

Iranian Nuclear Crisis/Tehran flexes its muscles, Haaretz.com, August 23 2006
Suggests that Iran is in a strong position in its wrangling with the West over its nuclear programme.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/753662.html

Power and the People, The Guardian, August 21 2006
Simon Tisdall speaks with ordinary Iranians on their view of the nuclear crisis and the country's government.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1854796,00.html

Chatham House Report: Iran, its Neighbours and the Regional Crises, August 23, 2006
Iran's influence in the region has been expanded unwittingly by US foreign policy.
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/mep/Iran0806.pdf