|
|
|
 |
|
|
| HOME |
| NUCLEAR AND WMD |
| TRANS-ATLANTIC SECURITY |
| WEAPONS TRADE |
| BASIC PUBLICATIONS |
| ABOUT BASIC |
IRAN UPDATENews and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programmeNo. 59 - 18 August 2006 If you do not want to receive this update please send an email to request removal from the list. Feedback on format and content is also gladly received. Please e-mail comments by reply to Carlos Coke on iran at basicint.org An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm. SUMMARY
In the week that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took hold, debate has grown over the implications for Iran's influence in the Middle East and the impact on the continuing nuclear controversy. In an article in The New Yorker magazine, Seymour Hersh suggests that the Bush administration viewed Israel's air offensive as a model for possible military action against Iranian underground targets. Iran is said to have assisted Hezbollah with the construction of these facilities and Israel's use of US-supplied weapons, possibly including bunker-buster bombs, would give Washington valuable information on the effectiveness of these munitions. Although the widely perceived failure of Israel's military action is said to have surprised decision makers within the US government, Hersh suggests that the Administration will view the outcome of the Israeli campaign more optimistically. Administration officials have denied Hersh's claims. Last week, some analysts suggested that Iran was concerned that it could be weakened if Israel defeated Hezbollah, particularly with regard to Tehran's retaliatory options against the US in the event of a military strike. There is now a growing perception that the war in Lebanon has actually increased Iran's regional standing, both in terms of popular prestige and politically, strengthening its position on the nuclear issue. Perhaps indicative of this was the statement by Ahmad Khatami, a high-ranking cleric, who celebrated the outcome of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and said that Iran would strike Tel Aviv following a US-Israeli attack. Iran has also reiterated its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, and warned that it may leave the IAEA. There appeared a note of compromise on the Iranian side when Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that Iran would be willing to discuss the suspension of uranium enrichment, but only in the context of explaining why it would be illogical to ask Tehran to do so. Whilst it is generally believed that US action against Iran would disrupt oil supplies and create a significant increase in the price of crude, Sam Bodman, the US Energy Secretary, has tried to downplay the significance of these risks. Echoing a previous statement in May, Bodman is quoted by Reuters as saying that: "As important as the price of oil is, [stopping Iranian nuclear enrichment is] more important than the price of oil". Meanwhile, perhaps attempting to bolster the case for confronting Iran, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to Iraq, alleged that Tehran had incited an upsurge of attacks against US occupation forces in Iraq, in retaliation against Israel's attacks on Hezbollah. Furthermore, President Bush this week drew explicit links between Iran and Hezbollah in the context of the Lebanon crisis, and suggested how much more dangerous Iran would be if it acquired nuclear weapons. Carlos Coke, BASIC, +44 (0) 20 7324 4680 STORIES AND LINKSWatching Lebanon: Washington's interest in Israel's war, The
New Yorker, August 21 2006 issue Iran warns it will strike at Tel Aviv if attacked, Iranmania,
August 14 2006 Iran insists on nuke right, threatens to quit IAEA,
Iranmania, August 13 2006 Iran says can discuss atomic work suspension in talks,
Reuters, August 16 2006 Halting Iran nuclear program trumps oil price, reuters,
August 08 2006 US Ambassador Says Iran is Inciting Attacks, New York Times,
(Fairuse), August 12 2006 Bush Says Hezbollah's Support in Iran, Syria Inflamed
Conflict, Bloomberg.com, August 14 2006 COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSISExamining Iran's ties to Hezbollah, In These Times, August 15
2006 Chaos theory and the Middle East, TomDispatch.com, August 10
2006 The death of Israel's dreams, The New Statesman, August 14
2006 A dummy run against Hezbollah, Asia Times, August 14
2006 An unmitigated disaster, Jerusalem Post, August 13
2006 United Nations unfairly pressurising Iran, CNN, August 14
2006 An unfinished war, Paul Rogers, Opendemocracy.net, August 14
2006 Words Not War: A Statement on Iran, Irannuclearwatch.blogsot,
August 17 2006 |
|
BASIC
UK: The Grayston Centre, 2nd Floor, 28 Charles Square London
N1 6HT, +44-(0)20-7324 4680 |