IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 58 - 11 August 2006

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An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

• Iran's chief nuclear negotiator: Iran will continue nuclear activities
• US pessimistic on Iran meeting August 31st ultimatum
• Iran suggests oil embargo if UN sanctions
• Janes Defence Weekly: Iran to supply Hezbollah with surface to air missiles
• Continuing concerns on Middle East regional war
• Niger 'yellowcake' redux? The Sunday Times reports Iranian purchase of Congolese uranium

Ali Larijani, Iran's lead nuclear negotiator, delivered an interim response to the June 6th incentives aimed at resolving the ongoing controversy over Iran's nuclear programme. His statement on August 9th - the anniversary of the US' atomic bombing of Nagasaki - indicated that Iran would continue its enrichment activities. Whilst Iran has several times declared its intention to deliver a full consideration of the June 6th package on August 22nd, it is widely expected that Iran will flout the Security Council's August 31st deadline (resolution 1696) to cease enrichment activities. Anticipating the implementation of sanctions, Larijani raised the possibility of an Iranian oil embargo. This could raise the price of oil well above the current near record price of $76 per barrel. Whilst the Hizbollah-Israel war continues to overshadow diplomacy, Condoleeza Rice, US Secretary of State, still aims to develop consensus amongst key powers over Iran.

The Israeli cabinet's approval for an expanded, month-long ground offensive against Hezbollah and occupation of southern Lebanon, means that moves to implement sanctions against Iran may well coincide with continued fighting in the Lebanon. Moreover, there is much talk of the risk of the conflict spreading into a regional Middle East war. This week, Janes Defence Weekly suggested that Iran could supply Hezbollah with surface-to-air missiles within the next few months.

And in a replay of the erroneous Niger 'yellowcake' story that preceded the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq, The Sunday Times reported that Iran had imported uranium ore from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The governments of both countries have denied the claim, which does not appear to be well founded.

Carlos Coke, BASIC, +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Larijani: Iran will develop peaceful nuclear technology, Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), August 06 2006
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said that Iran would continue to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-17/0608062941194004.htm

Iran threatens to use 'oil weapon' in nuclear standoff, The Guardian, August 07 2006
Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, implied that Iran may resort to an oil embargo if it faces sanctions at the UN Security Council.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1838645,00.html

US: No sign Iran will comply with UN, TwinCities.com, (through AP), August 08 2006
Washington anticipates that Iran will not accede to Security Council demands that it cease uranium enrichment activity.
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/breaking_news/15226603.htm

China says Iran not to yield to West on N-case, Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), August 10 2006
China's International Radio, which broadcasts the official stance of the Chinese government, reported that Iran would not end uranium enrichment.
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-22/0608094231144728.htm

'Iran's surface-to-air missiles to back Hezbollah', Iranmania, August 06 2006
Jane's Defence magazine reports that Iran aims to supply surface to air missiles to Hezbollah.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/default.asp?
NewsCode=44848&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Iran's plot to mine uranium in Africa, The Sunday Times, August 06 2006
The front-page story in The Sunday Times is reminiscent of the disproved allegations that Iraq attempted to import 'yellowcake' uranium ore from Niger.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2300772.html

also

Congo Denies Alleged Uranium Shipment to Iran from 2005, Morning Star, August 08 2006
The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo denies the story printed in The Sunday Times.
http://news.morningstar.com/news/DJ/M08/D07/
200608071242DOWJONESDJONLINE000433.html?Cat=AfrMidEast

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

The End of the Beginning, Global Research (The Guardian), August 09 2006
Defence Analyst Dan Plesch suggests that the Hezbollah-Israel war may be a precursor to a wider regional war in the Middle East, potentially involving a US attack Iran. Plesch writes that, using just half of its 200 strong bomber force, comprising B52's, B1's and B2's, the US could strike 10,000 targets almost simultaneously. 'One B2 bomber dropped 80,500lb bombs on separate targets in 22 seconds in a test flight.'
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=
viewArticle&code=PLE20060809&articleId=2930

How the US fired Jack Straw, The Times, August 07 2006
William Rees-Mogg adds to the claim that the Bush administration influenced the end of Jack Straw's position as foreign secretary, partly due to his stance on Iran.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2301799,00.html

After Lebanon, there's Iran, Christian Science Monitor, August 09 2006
The current conflict in the Lebanon is seen to have bolstered Iran's position in the Middle East, whilst diminishing the US' and Israel's.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0809/p09s02-coop.html

Clearing the path for US war on Iran, Asia Times, August 10 2006
Another contribution to the theory that Israel's offensive against Hezbollah is a prelude to a US-led attack on Iran.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH10Ak05.html