IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 57 - 4 August 2006

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An archive of previous Iran Updates is available at: http://www.basicint.org/updates/iran.htm.

SUMMARY

• UN Security Council adopts resolution 1696 - Iran given until August 31st to suspend uranium enrichment
• Iran rejects 1696
• Ahmadinejad - war in Lebanon influences Iran's attitude toward incentives
• Debate on extent of Iran's involvement in Israel-Lebanon war
• Reports - Israeli campaign against Hezbollah a prelude to attack on Iran
• Poll - 53% of Americans expect major war in the Middle East

On July 31st, after a week long delay in negotiations caused by the Israel-Hezbollah war, the UN Security Council finally agreed resolution 1696, calling on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment by August 31st. Should Iran fail to accede to the ultimatum, the Security Council will convene to discuss implementation of punitive measures under Article 41 of Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Despite previous signs of Russian and Chinese wariness toward supporting 1696, Qatar, one of the Security Council's current non-permanent members, was the only country to vote against it, appealing to other members to give Iran the extra three weeks it requested to respond. Qatar, opposite Iran on the Persian Gulf, is also the only Arab country on the Security Council. Moscow and Beijing's concerns did lead to 1696 being notably milder than the initial proposal.

Russia and China also secured the explicit need for further Security Council meetings after August 31st to discuss economic sanctions, in effect, delaying a decision on punitive measures against Iran. If Tehran does refuse to abide by 1696, it is still therefore an open question as to whether Russia and China will actually support moves by the US and its allies to impose meaningful sanctions. If UN sanctions are blocked, the US may hope to construct a sanctions-based 'coalition of the willing' outside of the UN. However, the fact that close US-ally Australia has already said that it might not join such an arrangement, casts doubt on the viability even of this approach. Moreover, it appears that it is likely any sanctions agreed (a list was appended to a draft version of the P5+1 proposals) would fall short of swinging measures that have any hope of affecting policy change by Iran.

Perhaps not unexpectedly, Iran rejected resolution 1696. Indeed, on July 30th, Iranian Foreign Minister, Hamid Reza Asefi said that Tehran could dismiss the incentives package if the Security Council applied premature pressure on Iran. However, during a meeting with Japan's Foreign minister Taro Aso, Iranian Vice President Isfandiar Rahim Mashaee said that Iran was still considering the package of incentives. Whilst the Iranian position therefore seems to encompass defiant rhetoric and pragmatism, it would be surprising if Iran did agree to end uranium enrichment by August 31st, as a condition of improved relations with the Western powers.

This week, President Ahmadinejad suggested that events in Lebanon might also give Iran more reason to opt for rejection. His linking of the Iranian nuclear controversy with the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, came at a time of heightened debate and speculation over Iran's role in the war. Commentators have varied in their conclusions on the level of Tehran's involvement in the crisis. Whilst it has been reported that Iran has considerable control over Hezbollah, it is also argued that Iran is concerned that an Israeli victory over Hezbollah would deprive Tehran of a retaliatory response to a US attack. Indeed, it has also been suggested that the remarkably forceful nature of Israel's military campaign in Lebanon is actually an attempt to dismantle Hezbollah in the run-up to a possible US assault on Iran.

Reflecting international concern at developments in the Middle East, a US poll has revealed that, given the tension over Iran's nuclear crisis and the war between Hezbollah and Israel, 53% of Americans believe that a major war in the Middle East is likely.

Carlos Coke, BASIC, +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

UN tells Iran to halt nuke work or face sanctions, Iranmania, August 02 2006
Resolution 1696 calls on Iran to end nuclear activities by August 31, or face punitive action under Chapter 7 of the UN charter. President Ahmadinejad said that events in the Lebanon 'have influenced [Iran's] 'examination' of the incentives package.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/default.asp?
NewsCode=44746&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

UN Security Council Resolutions 2006
For details of Resolution 1696.
http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/unsc_resolutions06.htm

also

New Proposal to Iran: Will it be Enough to Diffuse the Nuclear Crisis?, Paul Ingram, British and American Security Information Council (BASIC), June 9 2006
See list appended to the draft package of incentives, left out of the final proposal, 'Possible measures in the event that Iran does not co-operate' at the bottom of the page
http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Notes/BN060609.htm

Iranian President rejects nuke deadline, TheState.com., August 02 2006
President Ahmadinejad again rejected demands to end Iran's uranium enrichment programme.
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/15171986.htm

Mid-east crisis forcing Iran to re-examine six nation package: Ahmadinejad, Xinhuanet, July 31 2006 President Ahmadinejad hinted that Iran might reject the 6th June offer due to events in the Lebanon.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-07/31/content_4896835.htm

Iran warns over UN resolution, CNN, July 30 2006
The day before resolution 1696 was passed, Iranian Foreign Minister, Hamid Reza Asefi said that Iran could deliver an outright rejection of the package of incentives if the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/30/iran.nuclear.ap/index.html

UNSC resolution 'unacceptable': Iranian parliament, Xinhuanet, August 01 2006
Kazem Jalali, a spokesman for the Iranian parliament's foreign affairs commission, stated that resolution 1696 was 'unacceptable' and would 'help no one.' In May 2006, a majority of Iranian Members of Parliament backed a motion calling for the country's withdrawal from the NPT following the implementation of any UN punitive measures.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-08/01/content_4906542.htm

Iran VP: Country still considering offer, Associated Press, August 02 2006
Despite the Security Council's adoption of resolution 1696, Iranian Vice President Isfandiar Rahim Mashaee said that Iran is still considering the June 6th package of incentives.

Americans expect major war in Middle East, Angus Reid, August 01 2006
A majority of Americans believe that more countries will become involved in the current Israel-Lebanon conflict, leading to a major war.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12726

Iran plays stabilising role in the Middle East - France, Reuters, July 31 2006
The comments, made by French Foreign Minister Phillipe Douste-Blazy, raise questions concerning the likelihood of Paris supporting for moves to confront Iran over its nuclear programme.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L28816454.htm

Australia may not join US on Iran sanctions, The Australian, August 02 2006
Australia's ambassador to the UN, Robert Hill, suggested that, if the US fails to win an agreement on UN economic measures against Iran after August 31st, Canberra might not join a US-led 'coalition of the willing' in imposing sanctions.
http://theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19990909-2703,00.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Tehran teeters on the path to war, Asia Times, August 2 2006
Suggests that Iran is concerned at the prospect of Israel defeating Hezbollah, which would destroy an element of Tehran's retaliatory capacity in a future conflict with the US.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH02Ak03.html

Lebanon is a sideshow to Iran's sinister moves on Iraq, The Sunday Times, August 01 2006
Andrew Sullivan argues that the Israel-Lebanon conflict was initiated by Iran as part of an overall strategy to secure its domination of Iraq.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2088-2291265,00.html

Iran turns crisis into opportunity, Asia Times, August 01 2006
Questions the widely reported assumption that Iran had a direct role at the start of the current Israel-Lebanon crisis.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH01Ak03.html

Iran at the heart of the crisis, Le Figaro (through Truthout) July 28 2006
Proposes that the Western powers recognise Iran's emergence as a major regional power as an approach for dealing with the Israel-Lebanon war and the Iranian nuclear issue.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/072806H.shtml

In Mid-East tumult, Iran's clout rises, Christian Science Monitor, July 31 2006
The war between Hezbollah and Israel, Ahmedinejad's defiance and the US' failure in Iraq and Afghanistan are seen to have promoted Iran's status in the region.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0731/p01s02-wome.html

Lebanon: a pawn in Iran's power play, Christian Science Monitor, July 28 2006
Iran is seen as being the 'godfather of the Shi'ite [Hezbollah] movement'.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0728/p09s02-cods.html

Iran hangs in suspense as the conflict plays out, NY Times (through Fairuse), July 30 2006
In Tehran, there is reportedly concern that Israel's war against Hezbollah is seen as a proxy war offensive, undermining Iran's retaliatory options in the wake of a US attack.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/nyt343.html