IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 56 - 28 July 2006

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SUMMARY

• Israel-Lebanon crisis worsens: concern at US-Iran proxy war
• Russia and China back away from Iran security council resolution
• More Iranian hints at NPT withdrawal
• UK poll: continuing concerns over British-American 'special relationship'

As the Israel-Lebanon crisis enters its third week, speculation that the conflict is an unfolding US/Israeli proxy war with Iran grows. Israel has reportedly interpreted the failure of the Rome talks to produce a ceasefire as tacit US support for its continued military action. As the confrontation continues, Iranian volunteers are reported to be travelling to Lebanon to join Hezbollah. However, the numbers are relatively small and no regular Iranian forces are believed to be accompanying the group. Moreover, despite the Iranian government's support for Hezbollah, there is still uncertainty regarding the scope of Iran's role in the current conflict.

Whilst, last week, the Israel-Lebanon conflict led to a postponement of Security Council discussions on moves to implement a resolution against Iran, the delay this week results from renewed Russian and Chinese objections. Despite a statement on 19th July by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, that Moscow could support sanctions against Iran, Russia is now reportedly opposing elements of a draft resolution. This apparent backtracking is particularly notable given Russia's support of Iran's referral to the Security Council, after Tehran rejected the July 12th deadline for responding to the June 6th offer of incentives. Futhermore, suggestions that China too is backing away from supporting current moves to censor Iran, also raises questions over the viability of a Western-led punitive approach to diplomacy.

In countering the threat of UN-endorsed economic sanctions, another Iranian official this week raised the prospect of Iran's withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Comments by Majlis speaker, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, follow those recently made by President Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani, Iran's Chief nuclear negotiator.

As the stand-off over the Iranian nuclear issue continues, another UK opinion poll reveals disquiet amongst the British public regarding the 'special relationship' with the US. In a June 2006 YouGov poll, 69% of Britons said that their opinion of the US had fallen over the last few years, with 65% believing that Washington's presence in the world was 'predominantly malign.' This week, an ICM poll found that 63% of Britons say that Tony Blair has tied Britain too closely to the US. The current public mood in Britain may well complicate direct UK support for any scenario involving American military action against Iran.

Carlos Coke, BASIC +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Iranians volunteer to fight Israel, CNN.com, July 27 2006
Although Iran is allowing volunteers to travel to Lebanon, it is not sending regular forces.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/26/
iran.volunteers.ap/index.html

Russia Now Opposes Key Parts of Iran Draft, The Guardian, July 22 2006
Despite Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov's suggestion Moscow's support for sanctions against Iran, the Kremlin is now reportedly against the idea.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-5967953,00.html

China, Russia May be Reneging on Iran Commitments, UK Says, Bloombergy, July 20 2006
China, as well as Russia, may well be backing away from endorsing security council demands that Iran end uranium enrichment. The UK and France have tabled a draft resolution, which gives Iran until an as yet to be confirmed date in August to comply with calls to end uranium enrichment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080
&sid=aApthVGayoaE&refer=asia

Speaker of Iranian parliament: Iran will stop cooperation with IAEA once it finds cooperation against national interests, Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) July 25 2006
Majlis speaker, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, has added to growing Iranian hints that Tehran could leave the NPT if it suffers punitive action at the UN security council.
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-24/0607251152184255.htm

Stand up to US, voters tell Blair, The Guardian, July 25 2006
An ICM poll found that 63% of Britons say that Tony Blair has tied Britain to closely to the US.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,,1828225,00.html

Iran seeks to boost its influence in Asia: report, Iranmania, July 23 2006
Iran continues developing international contacts to thwart US attempts to isolate it, with trips to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/default.asp?
NewsCode=44545&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Iranian activist 'snubs White House', BBC news, July 25 2006
Akbar Ganji, democracy and Human Rights activist, said that he declined the invitation because current US policies were not helpful to the cause of democracy in Iran.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5211840.stm

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

On The Line: Iran And Syria's Proxy War, Voice of America, July 21 2006,
Transcript of a linked audio discussion on the Israel-Lebanon crisis as a proxy war between the US/Israel - Iran/Syria.
http://www.voanews.com/uspolicy/Ontheline/2006-07-21-voa9.cfm

When could Iran get the Bomb? Bulletin of the Atomic Energy Scientists, David Albright, July/August 2006
Albright, a former UN weapons inspector forecasts that Iran could produce its first nuclear weapon in 2009. However, at the Carnegie Non-Proliferation Conference, 11-12th January 1999, he said that Iraq 'may emerge in a relatively short period of time with weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons.'
http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=ja06albright

Are the Shias on the brink of taking over the Middle East?, The Observer, July 23 2006
Jason Burke assesses the claim of the Shia, led by Iran, are on the verge of becoming dominant within the Middle East.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1826930,00.html

Can Israel Win? New York Post, July 22 2006,
Suggests that Israel's campaign in the Lebanon is, in part, related to preventing the rise of a 'nuclear Iran'.
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/
can_israel_win__opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm

Iran's role in crisis still murky, BBC news, July 24 2006
Includes suggestions that Israel's operations against Hezbollah in the Lebanon are designed to pre-emptively undermine what it sees as increasing Iranian power in the Middle East.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5210874.stm

Is Iran Behind the War in Lebanon?, National Iranian American Council, July 24 2006
Questions the supposition that Iran is behind the current conflict in the Lebanon.
http://www.niacouncil.org/pressreleases/press399.asp