IRAN UPDATE

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 55 - 21 July 2006

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SUMMARY

• Israel: Iran behind Lebanon crisis, aiming for diversion from nuclear issue
• Security Council postpones nuclear discussions to focus on Israel-Lebanon
• Belief in Washington that Lebanon part of Iranian Mid-East campaign against US
• Iran promises to assist Syria in an Israeli attack
• Iran increasingly hints at leaving NPT if security council action
• Russia may back sanctions

With the Israel-Lebanon conflict overshadowing the controversy surrounding Iran's nuclear programme, there is increased speculation over whether the two crises are related. Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, has accused Tehran of using Hizbollah to incite unrest in Lebanon, aiming to divert international attention away from its nuclear programme. Whilst there is no concrete evidence to support Olmert's allegations, the UN Security Council, to allow it to focus on the Israel-Lebanon crisis, has actually delayed discussions of a draft resolution on the Iranian nuclear issue until next week.

Additionally, there is reportedly consensus emerging amongst the US political elite that Hizbollah's activities in Lebanon are part of an Iranian campaign against Washington in the Middle East. A range of analysts - including those hostile to the Iranian leadership - have begun challenging this speculation, and are concerned that it might be used as a casus belli by the Bush administration.

Iran this week warned Israel of "unimaginable losses" if it attacked Syria, pledging to support Damascus, in the event of an Israeli attack. However, whilst the full extent of the Iranian 'guarantee' is unclear, it is unlikely - at this stage - that Israel will attack Syria.

Nonetheless, Iran's position supports the perception that Iran and Syria are acting in close alliance. Tony Blair and the UK's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett have echoed Israeli and US claims that Tehran and Damascus are jointly behind the current Israel-Lebanon crisis, with Blair repeating the claim that Iran is supplying weapons to Iraq's insurgents.

This week, Iran confirmed that it would respond to the June 6th package of incentives on August 22nd - some five weeks after the UN Security Council's July 12th ultimatum. In addition, Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, has announced that Iran will not halt uranium enrichment, despite Security Council requests. Larijani's also stated that "Iran has no other way than to review its nuclear policies if confrontation is chosen, instead of talks". This hints that Tehran may leave the NPT if punitive measures are adopted against it at the Security Council. Indeed, following President Ahmadinejad's threat last week to leave the NPT, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Head of Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy, suggested that the Iranian parliament might again reconsider the country's membership of the treaty. The statement from the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, that Moscow remains open to the idea of sanctions, brings this possibility closer.

Carlos Coke +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran says it will deliver response August 22nd, The Guardian, July 20th 2006
Iran reiterates that it will not respond to the P5+1 endorsed package of incentives, delivered on June 6th, until August 22nd.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-5963410,00.html

Iran says determined to make atomic fuel at home, Reuters, July 20th 2006
Ali Larijani, Iran's Chief Nuclear Negotiator, insists that Iran will continue to enrich uranium on its soil. His comments, carried on Iranian state TV, also suggest that Iran will leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if international pressure continues.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=
topNews&storyID=2006-07-20T100430Z_01_HAF034001_
RTRUKOC_0_US-NUCLEAR-IRAN-LARIJANI.xml

MP: Majlis ready to consider withdrawal from NPT, July 18 2006
In May 2006, a majority of MPs in the Iranian Majlis (parliament) supported a motion calling for withdrawal from the NPT. Last week, President Ahmadinejad reiterated the threat.
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-24/0607184258161442.htm

Lebanon Crisis Delays UN on Iran Nuclear Issue, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty July 18 2006
The UN delayed discussions on a resolution until next week, instead focusing on the Israel-Lebanon situation.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2006/07/mil-060718-rferl03.htm

Israel claims link to Iran crisis, bbc news, July 18 2006
Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, suggested that Iran is seeking to divert international attention from its nuclear programme, by precipitating unrest in the Lebanon through its Hizbollah allies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5192990.stm

Iran warns Israel of "unimaginable losses" if Syria, Khaleej Times, July 16 2006
This week, Iran offered Damascus support in the event of an Israeli attack. However, the nature and extent of Iranian assistance is unclear.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?
xfile=data/middleeast/2006/July/middleeast_July294.xml&section=middleeast

Blair blames Syria and Iran for stoking tension, Independent, July 19 2006
Tony Blair lends credence to Olmert's statements.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article1185349.ece

Russia to mull sanctions if Iran fails to respond - FM Lavrov, Russian News and Information Agency (RNIA), July 19 2006
If Iran fails to co-operate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), then Russia may be open to the imposition of sanctions.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060719/51572534.html

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Israel Readies for Iran Showdown by Attacking Lebanon, antiwar.com, July 18 2006
Suggests that Israel is preparing the ground for a broader US-led campaign against Iran.
http://www.antiwar.com/ips/parsi.php?articleid=9324

Experts challenge White House line on Iran's influence, FT.com, July 18 2006
White House claims that Iran has influenced Hizbollah in the current Israel-Lebanon crisis come under scrutiny.
http://www.myantiwar.org/view/86399.html

The drums of war sound for Iran, Asia Times, July 21 2006
An Asia Times comment on the Israel-Lebanon crisis is part of escalating drift toward a US-Iran war.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG21Ak02.html

Bush confronts limits of power in world crises, Reuters, July 18th 2006
The White House is increasingly finding it difficult to address the simultaneously emerging foreign policy crises.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?
type=topNews&storyid=2006-07-19T195016Z_01_N18131938
_RTRUKOT_0_TEXT0.xml&src=
071906_1606_ARTICLE_PROMO_also_on_reuters

Lebanon, North Korea, Russia…here is the world's new multipolar disorder, The Guardian, July 20th 2006
Timothy Garton-Ash warns of the potential geopolitical risks of, what he perceives as, the new multi-polar global order.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1824517,00.html