IRAN ALERTS

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No. 54 - 14 July 2006

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SUMMARY

• Iran referred to UN Security Council
• Possible Security Council sanctions to follow
• Ahmadinejad - Iran could withdraw from NPT
• Washington sees Tehran's influence in Gaza-Lebanon flare-up

After weeks of speculation, a July 12th meeting of P5+1 Foreign Ministers in Paris agreed to bring Iran's case back to the UN Security Council, following Iran's failure to meet a July 12th deadline to respond to the package of conditional and incentivised negotiations delivered on June 6th. The statement issued after the talks suggested that a section of the UN charter covering economic sanctions could be invoked if Iran resists future Security Council demands concerning its nuclear programme. Russia and China both backed the move at this stage, though there is still considerable uncertainty over their support for significant sanctions against Tehran. John Bolton, the US ambassador to the UN, aims to secure a Security Council resolution early next week.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned again that Iran may follow the North Korean example by giving the necessary three months' notice and withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This builds on a motion in the Majlis (Iranian parliament) in early May 2006, which was backed by 160 out of 290 MPs. Withdrawal from the NPT would be seen as the ultimate act of non-co-operation, and could ultimately leave the international community with even less information on Iran's nuclear programme.

Tensions between Iran and US have been exacerbated by the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has spilled over into Lebanon. Washington accuses Iran and Syria of collaborative involvement in the recent upsurge in violence. However, analysts suggest that Washington may find it difficult to simultaneously counter Iran across the three fronts of the nuclear issue, Iran's alleged involvement in Iraq, and its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Carlos Coke, BASIC 020 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran referred to Security Council as nuclear row flares, The Guardian, July 13th 2006
Although Russia and China reportedly support the move, it will be interesting to see if they back tough punitive action against Iran.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1819008,00.html

Iran threatens to quit nuclear treaty, Iranmania, July 13th 2006
Following its referral to the UN Security Council, President Ahmadinejad warns that Iran may leave the NPT.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=44305&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Options for US limited as Mid East crises spread, Washington Post, July 13th 2006
Analysts suggest that Washington will find it difficult to simultaneously address developments concerning Iran, Iraq, and Israel-Gaza-Lebanon.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071201557_pf.html

US Blames Iran, Syria for Hezbollah Attack on Iran, Voice of America (VOA), July 12th 2006
Commentators see Hezbollah as a potential tool of Iranian retaliation against a US attack. The US invasion of Iraq has led to the revival of Syria-Iran relations.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2006/07/mil-060712-voa06.htm

also

Syrian Vice-President: We defend Iran's nuclear rights in international communities, July 13th 2006
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-24/0607134036004245.htm

Russia believes Iran decades from nuke, United Press International, July 11th 2006-07-12
The article cites Jim Philips of the US Heritage Foundation, who argues that Russian 'foot dragging' over Iran's nuclear programme contributes to US-Russia tensions.
http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?
StoryID=20060711-122548-8372r

Iran's mullahs promise to cover China's demand for energy, Iran news, July 11th 2006
As the P5+1 states pressed for Iran to respond to the July 12th deadline, China and Iran held discussions on the expansion of their energy co-operation.
http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_16655.shtml

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Axis of Evil Survivors Play By The Same Book, SpaceWar, July 9th 2006
Comment including speculation on whether Iran and North Korea are co-ordinating their diplomatic and military movements in relation to the US and its allies.
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/
Axis_Of_Evil_Survivors_Play_By_The_Same_Book_999.html

Iran talks with West brings sides no closer, International Herald Tribune (New York Times), July 11th 2006
Assesses the underlying reasons for the failure of negotiations in Brussels.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/11/news/iran.php

No Evidence of Secret Enrichment by Iran, Antiwar.com, July 12th 2006
Disputes claims that Iran has a secret parallel uranium enrichment programme using P-2 centrifuges, which are more efficient than its declared P1's.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/porter.php?articleid=9289

Advantage Iran, Asia Times, July 14th 2006
President Ahmadinejad's standing-up to the US is considered to have won him support amongst sections of the international Muslim community.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG14Ak01.html