IRAN ALERTS

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No.53 - 7 July 2006

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SUMMARY

• Western states deliver July 12th deadline for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and respond to incentives offer
• Iran's chief nuclear negotiator - response on August 6th
• Seymour Hersh reports US military doubts over attacking Iran
• EU/Iran talks unexpectedly rescheduled at last minute
• Ahmadinejad attends African Union meeting in Gambia
• UK poll - British have low opinion of Bush and US foreign policy

The diplomatic course of the ongoing crisis appears as if it is about to enter a new, more earnest phase. Commentators increasingly suggest that Tehran faces referral to the Security Council for punishment over its perceived foot-dragging. The major Western powers - reportedly with Russian and Chinese agreement - have set an informal deadline of July 12th for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and respond favourably to the June 6th incentivised offer of negotiations. The new July 12th date follows other mooted deadlines of June 29th and July 5th. Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, has said that Iran would probably respond on August 6th, earlier than the August 22nd date offered by President Ahmadinejad last week. Perhaps indicative of the flux and sensitivity surrounding the current negotiations, EU-Iran talks originally planned for July 6th were unexpectedly delayed a day.

Discussions in the US media are still around military action. Acclaimed journalist Seymour Hersh has written of significant disquiet within the top-brass of the US military concerning the feasibility of war against Iran. There are concerns that both the lack of intelligence on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iranian retaliation could well make a US attack counterproductive, as well as highly damaging. US conservatives have sought to downplay the risks of military action, believing that Iranian retaliation against the US in Iraq would divide the Shiites into pro- and anti-Iranian camps and unify the Sunnis and the Kurds, thereby improving Washington’s position. This week, the US navy also gave guarantees that it could keep the Straits of Hormuz open to tanker traffic in the event of war with Iran.

President Ahmadinejad has continued his tour of international community forums, frustrating US efforts to isolate Iran from diplomatic circles. He attended the 53-state African Union (AU) summit in Gambia, where he condemned Western ‘bullies’. (Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has been vocal in his support of Iran, also attended). Ahmadinejad had the week before attended the 57-member Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Baku, Azerbaijan, soon after the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit.

An opinion poll in The Telegraph, a right-leaning UK daily, indicated that a majority of Britons are concerned by the direction of US foreign policy. The poll shows that 69% of Britons say that their opinion of the US has fallen over the last few years, with 65% believing that its presence in the world is ‘predominantly malign.’ This suggests that a majority of the British public could well be hostile to a US attack on Iran, and any ideas of UK participation.

Carlos Coke +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Iran nuclear response by August 6th, Al Jazeera, 04 July 2006
Iran's chief negotiator Ali Larijani has said that Iran would most probably reply on August 6th. The Western powers, supported by Russia and China, have demanded that Iran respond by July 12th.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/CD6FAA04-D8C8-485C-B2E2-F995B06A57E8.htm

Last Stand, The New Yorker, Seymour Hersh, 10th July 2006 issue
Hersh reveals deep reservations within the Pentagon regarding the feasibility of military action against Iran's nuclear programme.
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060710fa_fact

US Navy pledges to safeguard Straits of Hormuz, Reuters, 3rd July 2006
Vice Admiral Patrick M. Walsh, head of US Naval Forces Central Command, gave guarantees to the security of Persian Gulf tanker traffic.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=
2006-07-03T141901Z_01_L12734341_RTRUKOC_0_US-SECURITY-USA-IRAN.xml&archived=False

Iran calls last-minute delay to nuclear talks, The Times, 5th July 2006
The meeting had been scheduled for Wednesday, but was unexpectedly rescheduled when Larijani pulled out of the meeting.
http://www.iranmania.com/news/articleview/Default.asp?NewsCode=
44147&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Iranian President Ahmedinejad slams world 'bullies' at African summit, Iranmania, 2nd July 2006
Ahmadinejad's attendance follows Iran's presence at the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Baku, and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO).
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=
44083&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs

Britain sees US as vulgar empire builder, The Telegraph, 3rd July 2006
Poll shows that public opinion toward the US in Britain, its most loyal ally, is at an all time low, particularly regarding Washington's foreign policy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/07/03/nyank03.xml

also

YouGov Daily Telegraph Survey results on British attitudes toward the US June 2006
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL060101010_3.pdf

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Britain falls out of love with America, The Telegraph, 3rd July 2006
Comment on the YouGov poll on shifting British attitudes toward the US, notably its foreign policy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=
WG4JUMTCZ24VFQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2006/07/03/nyank103.xml

Nuking Iran is not off the table, Antiwar.com, 6th July 2006
Despite Seymour Hersh's Last Stand article, in which the risks of the US administration using nuclear weapons against Iran is reported to have diminished, Jorge Hirsch writes that the threat is still very much alive.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=9255

Washington rejects a German compromise on Iran, Asia Times, 6th July 2006
The US is displeased at comments by German Defence Minister, Franz Josef Jung, that Iran should be permitted to carry out limited uranium enrichment on its soil.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG06Ak01.html

The New American Cold War, The Nation, 10th July 2006 issue
Iran cited as one of the issues at play in worsening Russia-US relations. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060710/cohen