IRAN ALERTS

News and comment on the diplomatic movements over Iran's nuclear programme

No.52 - 30 June 2006

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SUMMARY

• Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamanei, prepares the ground for a conditional Iranian response by appearing to dismiss talks with US
• Western nations impatient for Iranian response - consider Security Council
• Putin says Russia will not support ultimatums on Iran
• Iran threatens oil blockade as 'last resort'
• Reports of Ahmadinejad visit to Iraq

This week's statement by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that negotiation with the US would be of 'no use' to Iran, would appear to put the seal on any hopes that the Iranians will be accepting the conditions attached to the P5+1 6th June package for negotiations. Khamanei asserted that Iran would not suspend uranium enrichment to meet preconditions detailed in the incentives package, echoing statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Chief Nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad said last week said that Iran would respond to the offer by August 22nd, but it is already abundantly clear that the preconditions attached, requesting that Iran suspend its enrichment, will not be acceptable. Both sides will need to be more flexible in their responses if there is to be any breakthrough.

Instead, major Western powers are reportedly considering further recourse to the UN Security Council to force an earlier Iranian response, even though no formal deadline was given to Tehran. It is at this stage unclear what this would achieve, as Russia and China would likely oppose any additional measures. Vladimir Putin announced this week that Russia would not support any form of ultimatum to force an Iranian response. Representatives of Russian energy giant Gazprom were in Iran this week to discuss collaborative oil and gas development.

Iranian press reports this week indicated that President Ahmadinejad was planning a visit to Iraq to meet Iraqi President Jalal Talebani and make a pilgrimage to Shi'ite shrines. This trip could highlight the growing relationship between the Iraqi and Iranian governments and further confuse the Anglo-American mission in Iraq.

Carlos Coke +44 (0) 20 7324 4680

STORIES AND LINKS

Ayatollah rejects deal with US on nuclear ambitions, The Independent, June 28 2006
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says that Iran will not suspend uranium enrichment, a precursor for talks as outlined in the package of incentives delivered to Tehran by Javier Solana on June 6th. Khamanei said that talks with the US were of 'no use' to Iran.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article1115897.ece

G8 patience running out as Iran stalls, FT, June 27 2006
After hoping for a quick response to the June 6th offer, the US, UK and France consider returning to the UN Security Council.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/14879b90-0579-11db-bb76-0000779e2340.html

Russia will not join ultimatums over Iran: Putin, Iranmania, June 28 2006
Apparently referring to the informal deadline surrounding Iran's response to the package of incentives delivered by Javier Solana on June 6th, Vladimir Putin continues to counter Western efforts to increase pressure on Iran.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=43984&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Iran threatens to use oil weapon in nuclear crisis, Middle East Online, June 26 2006
A spokesman said that Tehran would only impede oil supplies as a last resort.
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=16820

Ahmadinejad due to visit Iraq, Tehrantimes.com, June 27 2006
No date has been given for the trip.
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=6/27/2006&Cat=2&Num=021

Gazprom, Iran discuss joint oil and gas venture, June 27 2006
Energy considerations are said to play a major role in Russia's support for Iran.
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?
NewsCode=43941&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

Wary of US, Syria and Iran strengthen ties, New York Times, June 25 2006
The US military presence in Iraq has recently brought the two countries closer together. Tehran and Damascus co-operated during the 1980's against Israel and the US in the Lebanon.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/25/world/middleeast/25syria.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

IAEA Issues Assessment on Iran's Nuclear Activities, Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), June 28 2006
Following the compilation of a document by Mohammed El Baradei, which says that even small-scale uranium would assist Iran's move towards long-term technical proficiency, US officials believe that Iran should not be allowed to undertake uranium enrichment on any scale.
http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2006_6_26.html#BCDBA71E

The Politics of Pipelines, Newsweek, July 3-10 2006
Assesses geopolitical energy rivalry between Russia and the West, referring to a 'gas alliance' between Moscow and Tehran.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13529484/site/newsweek/

Japan's dilemma over Iran, Asia Times, June 28 2006
Japan imports 90% of its oil, with 15% coming from Iran. This complicates any possible hard line stance in support of the US.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/HF28Dh01.html