WASHINGTON NUCLEAR UPDATE

February 11, 2005

In this issue:

• North Korean nuclear weapons
• The US, the EU-3, and Iran
• Nonproliferation and the NPT Review Conference
• Nuclear weapons in the US FY-06 budget
• Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

North Korean nuclear weapons

North Korea has stated publicly for the first time that it has manufactured nuclear weapons. Previous public declarations had been limited to the claim that North Korea has "weaponised" plutonium from spent fuel rods and that the regime was increasing its "nuclear deterrent". North Korea claims it has acquired nuclear weapons as a deterrent against an aggressive United States bent on overthrowing the North Korean government.

New York Times: North Korea Says It Has Nuclear Weapons and Rejects Talks
Reuters UK: North Korea admits to nukes

The US, the EU-3, and Iran

Negotiations continue between Iran and three European countries (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) to resolve the crisis over Iran's nuclear program. The United States government remains doubtful of a successful outcome and has resisted overtures to become a participant in the dialogue, preferring to take a hard line and threatening to bring the matter before the UN Security Council. Considering the IAEA's Mohamed ElBaradei soft on Iran, the United States may try to oust the Director General, perhaps as soon as later this month when the IAEA board of governors meet on February 28 in Vienna.

International Herald Tribune: Nuclear 'good cop' aims to calm U.S. and Iran in dispute
World Peace Herald: USAF playing cat and mouse game over Iran
Tucson Citizen: Rice: Talks about Irans nuclear program cannot go on forever

Nonproliferation and the NPT Review Conference

Having given up its nuclear weapons program, Libya wonders what benefits it has derived from such a course of action. Meanwhile, US and UK scientists meet to evaluate the relationship of nuclear weapons technology sharing under the 1958 US/UK Mutual Defense Agreement at the 2004 "Stocktake" conference. The House Policy Committee Chairman Christopher Cox (R-CA) and Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R-NM) released a report on January 25, 2005 outlining the United States' effort to combat the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue states and terrorists. The report, All Tools at Our Disposal: Addressing Nuclear Proliferation in a Post-9/11World, addresses strategies to strengthen international controls on proliferation and urges the United States to strengthen the technology involved in the detection of activities and networks associated with nuclear weapons. President Bush has added nuclear hawks John Rood and Jack Crouch to the National Security Council in an effort to strengthen administration's arms control and non-proliferation teams.

In preparation for the 2005 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in May, from April 26 to 28, Mexico will be hosting the Conference of Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones. The conference will include 100 non-nuclear zone treaty parties from Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Meanwhile, the traditional divisions between nuclear and non-nuclear countries and their differing obligations under the Treaty are beginning to be publicly enunciated by representatives from the United States, Brazil, and elsewhere, leading to serious questions about the likely outcomes of the conference.

ABC News Online: Gaddafi feels betrayed after WMD deal
NNSA Newsletter: American, British Scientists Discuss Collaboration at "Stocktake 2004"
San Diego Union Tribune: Momentum builds to boost program for dismantling nuclear weapons
Financial Times: Bush promotes nuclear hawks
Global Security Newswire: Mexico to Host Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Conference
Financial Times: US allies fret at hard line of nuclear hawks

Nuclear weapons in the US FY-06 budget

On February 7, President Bush submitted his budget for the 2006 fiscal year to Congress for consideration. The status of a number of nuclear weapons programs continues to generate much attention, particularly after Congress last year voted to kill or dramatically scale back several high profile Bush programs, specifically on funding for:

• Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP or 'bunker busters');
• 'advanced concepts' (mini-nukes and other variants);
• speed-up test readiness by the weapons laboratories; and
• a Modern Pit Facility to manufacture thousands of new plutonium pits.

In the documents released to date, President Bush has renewed his request for funding for:

• the 'bunker buster' study at $4 million;
• the Reliable Replacement Warhead program at $9.3 million; and
• the Modern Pit Facility at $7.7 million.

He has cut funding for:

• the CTBTO (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization) by 24%; and
• the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) by $3 million.

However, Rep. Dave Hobson (R-OH), who was instrumental in making the cuts to the president's nuclear initiatives last year, has been reappointed Chair of a newly configured Energy Appropriations subcommittee, keeping him in a prime position to influence this year's outcomes again. He has recently indicated his continued scepticism of the value of these programs, particularly when viewed as clashing with US nonproliferation goals.

Washington Post: Rumsfeld Seeks to Review Burrowing Nuclear Bomb
Arms Control Wonk: Reliable Replacement Warhead program
Alliance for Nuclear Accountability: New Nuclear Weapons Programs Pushed
Global Security Newswire: Bush Seeks to Cut Test Ban Treaty Funding
I-Newswire.com: Chairman Lewis Announces Major Reorganization of the House Appropriations Committee and Slate of Subcommittee Chairmen

Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference

The 2005 NPT Review Conference will be held at the United Nations in New York from May 2 to 27. BASIC and Oxford Research Group (ORG) have embarked on a joint program to raise awareness of the importance of this conference and moving forward on non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament agreed by the 187 States Parties.

An overview document 'Breakthrough or Bust in'05?' can be downloaded from BASIC's NPT web page at: http://www.basicint.org/npt as can the first three issue-based briefing series. BASIC will also be doing an end-of-the-month roundup of NPT stories and publications in February, March, April and May. You can receive alerts for the publication of the briefing series and the monthly roundups directly from Nigel Chamberlain (nchamberlain at basicint.org).

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