NPT Review Conference Roundup

January - March 2005

In this issue:

• BASIC and Oxford Research Group NPT Project launch
• Seven Steps to Raise World Security
• Arms Control Association Panel
• Report estimates 480 US nuclear weapons remain in Europe
• NPT Information Site
• International Expert Group
• Bush and Putin Joint Statement
• Annan Statement on the NPT
• President Bush Statement on the NPT
• ElBaradei supports discussions on a nuclear-free Middle East
• British MPs debate the NPT Review
• International Security Conference
• Science and Public Affairs article on the NPT

There has been a great deal of government, institutional, media and NGO interest in the forthcoming Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, to be held at the United Nations in New York from 2 to 27 May. What follows is a selected summary of some of these developments for the first three months of 2005.

BASIC and Oxford Research Group NPT Project launch

BASIC and Oxford Research Group (ORG) launched their joint NPT Project with a well-attended meeting to introduce 'Breakthrough or Bust in '05?' on 11 January This was followed by the electronic and hardcopy publication of a series of concise, issue-based briefings. The Overview and Briefings 1 to 12 can be downloaded at: http://www.basicint.org/npt/index.htm) with more to follow in April. Atlanta Consultation II: On the Future of the NPT is a report from the Middle Powers Initiative which organised an Extraordinary Strategy Consultation on the NPT 2005 Review Conference in co-operation with former US President Jimmy Carter at the Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia, 26 to 28 January.

Seven Steps to Raise World Security

Dr Mohamed ElBaradei, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), had an Op-Ed 'Seven Steps to Raise World Security' http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2005/ebsp2005n001.html published in the Financial Times on 2 February in which he stated:

"Four months from now, in New York, the world will have a rare opportunity to make significant improvements in international security. The question is whether we will be smart enough to use it."

Arms Control Association Panel

Arms Control Association followed up Dr ElBaradei's FT Op-Ed with a long interview with him (on 4 February) in their March edition of Arms Control Today. Fulfilling the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty's Promise, an Arms Control Association sponsored panel discussion on 3 February, featured presentations by Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker, Brazilian Ambassador to the United States Roberto Abdenur, and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Associate and Director for Non-Proliferation Joseph Cirincione.

Report estimates 480 US nuclear weapons remain in Europe

The National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) released a report 'U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe' on 8 February which claimed that the United States retained as many as 480 air-delivered, B61 nuclear bombs at eight bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK - twice the number of previous estimates. The Pentagon maintains they are needed to "maintain peace and stability in the region" but will not disclose either the actual number of US nuclear weapons in Europe or their locations. There are no plans to withdraw these weapons but the NRDC report suggests that they undermine efforts to curb proliferation worldwide. The NRDC report was widely reported on both sides of the Atlantic, including The Guardian which quoted BASIC:

"Nato had admitted that US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe served a political rather than a military role. But their continued presence means that non-nuclear weapon states shelter under the US nuclear umbrella. This contradicts their status and obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and enables Russia to refuse to engage in talks to dismantle their tactical nuclear weapons."

The Observer published an article on 20 February suggesting that nuclear proliferation might lead to regional arms races and quoting Stephen Pullinger from Saferworld: "It [the NPT] is a treaty concerned not only with stopping the further spread of nukes but also about their complete elimination. ...it is clear that none of the five declared nuclear states are thinking about abandoning their nukes for the foreseeable future" and concluded: "As Iran and North Korea stand in the dock in May it may well be worth remembering the Non-Proliferation Treaty was meant to work both ways". A second Observer article on the same day considered the possible options that the UK Ministry of Defence is considering to replace its Trident nuclear weapons system and cited BASIC's concern that such plans would be contrary to the spirit of the NPT and send all the wrong messages about the UK's commitment to nuclear disarmament.

NPT Information Site

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Arms Control Association have an NPT information site. The CEIP now also have the final version of 'Universal Compliance' available at: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16593

International Expert Group

On 23 February, the international Expert Group drawn together by Dr ElBaradei in June 2004, released its report ' Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle'. ElBaradei suggested in an earlier statement that the wide dissemination of the most proliferation sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle could be the 'Achilles' Heel' of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The Expert Group report detailed five possible approaches to strengthen controls on fuel enrichment, reprocessing and spent fuel management. Dr ElBaradei has indicated that he would like to use the report to encourage a wider debate about fuel cycles at the Review Conference and afterwards during his suggested 5-year moratorium, the development of production and reprocessing facilities.

Bush and Putin Joint Statement

The following day, Presidents Bush and Putin signed a joint statement to enable closer co-operation on nuclear security on the implementation of UNSC Resolution 1540. The joint statement declares that: "We bear a special responsibility for the security of nuclear weapons and fissile material, in order to ensure that there is no possibility such weapons or materials would fall into terrorist hands."

Annan Statement on the NPT

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan statement on the thirty-fifth anniversary of the NPT on 4 March saying that it is "has been a true cornerstone of global security" but is confronted by "profound challenges to its effectiveness and credibility". He said "progress in both disarmament and non-proliferation will be essential, and neither should be held hostage to the other" and challenged the Review Conference and Heads of State "not only to strengthen the NPT, but also to demonstrate the continuing relevance and indispensability of multilateral regimes and fora in safeguarding global security".

President Bush Statement on the NPT

A President's Statement on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty was released by the White House on 7 March. President Bush "reaffirm[ed] the determination of the United States to carry out its treaty commitments and to work to ensure its continuance in the interests of world peace and security". He went on to state that "NPT Parties must take strong action to confront the threat of noncompliance with the NPT in order to preserve and strengthen the Treaty's nonproliferation undertakings" ...and... "For international norms to be effective, they must be enforced".

ElBaradei supports discussions on a nuclear-free Middle East

The Washington Post reported on 6 March that Dr ElBaradei had agreed to work with Arab countries in an effort to press for discussions on a nuclear-free Middle East as part of the Arab-Israeli peace process at the NPT Review Conference. In an article in the FT in 2004, ElBaradei wrote that Israel's refusal to discuss its purported nuclear stockpile "served as an incentive for countries for countries to arm themselves with equal or similar weapons capacity". Israel has indicated that it would look favourably on such a dialogue once a comprehensive regional settlement has been reached. He also spoke about closing "the loopholes that allow states to produce nuclear materials that can be used to build bombs under the cover of civil nuclear programs". This was picked up by the New York Times on 15 March as a reinterpretation of the NPT in that the Administration felt that some countries should not be permitted access to nuclear technology, despite their right to do so provided they agreed to IAEA oversight and inspection.

British MPs debate the NPT Review

Unable to encourage the British Government to hold a full debate on the NPT, some Members of Parliament were able to secure a debate on the subject in a smaller chamber on 8 March. The Westminster Hall debate on the Non-Proliferation Review went into the official record and provided some interesting insights. The Minister said that the United States and China should ratify the CTBT, and:

• "The [NPT] treaty remains at the core of our nuclear counter-proliferation policy."
• "The UK's main goal will be to emphasise the need for greater efforts in the non-proliferation and compliance parts of the treaty."
• "During the review conference, we will outline the considerable progress that we had made on nuclear disarmament."
• "The United Kingdom has made considerable progress on the 13 practical steps towards nuclear disarmament that were agreed at the previous review conference five years ago."
• "We will focus at the review conference on monitoring the nuclear warhead complex."
• "We have been more transparent about our stockpiles of nuclear and fissile materials, and have begun a national historical accounting study for fissile material produced."
• "We are also engaged in negotiations on nuclear weapon-free zones in central Asia and south-east Asia."
• "The Government's policy on nuclear weapons remains as set out in the 1998 strategic defence review and the 2003 defence White Paper."
• ."We are committed to working towards a safer world in which there is no requirement for nuclear weapons."
• "Our minimum nuclear deterrent capability, currently represented by Trident, is likely to remain a necessary element of our security for the foreseeable future."
• "When we are satisfied that sufficient progress has been made to allow us to include British nuclear weapons in any negotiations without endangering our security interests, we shall do so."
• "We have been encouraging negotiations on a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East."

Earlier the Minister had responded to a direct question from another MP: "My hon. Friend asked about our plans for replacing Trident. As I am sure he knows, no decision has yet been taken, but we are keeping our options open. A decision will need to be taken during the next Parliament." The MP's final question was: "In the advice that the Minister has been given, what is the legal position of Britain in developing a new generation of nuclear weapons within the terms of the NPT of 1970?" to which the Minister responded: "My advice is that it is permitted. However, I shall write to my hon. Friend with the details."

International Security Conference

An international security conference, organised by the IAEA and hosted by the UK Foreign Office, was held in London 16-18 March. In a keynote address, Dr ElBaradei said that much progress has been made through international co-operation over the last three years to combat the risks of nuclear terrorism, curb illicit trafficking and protect infrastructure but more is needed to be done to strengthen nuclear security. Former US Senator Sam Nunn urged G8 countries to fulfil their pledges to fund threat reduction activities and for greater support for ElBaradei's moratorium proposals. He also called on the US to ratify the CTBT and negotiate with Russia on strategic and tactical nuclear weapons stockpiles.

Science and Public Affairs article on the NPT

Finally, BASIC's Nigel Chamberlain suggests that the international community faces stark choices at the Review Conference Non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament in 2005 in an article published in the March edition of Science and Public Affairs.

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