Missile Defence Update
28 September 2007
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Editorial
Britain's decision on Menwith Hill: A missed opportunity
to protect UK space dividend
Britain has high hopes of a substantial economic dividend
from space. In particular, a strong domestic satellite industry
employs about 80% of the UK's space workforce. According to
research by Oxford Economic Forecasting for UK Space, the
trade association, the industry employs around 70,000 people
(17,560 directly and the rest indirectly), contributes almost
£7bn to the economy and boasts the country's most skilled
manufacturing workforce.
But for any of the benefits of outer space to be sustained
and expanded, space must be secured for peaceful purposes.
As the Bush administration continues to move towards the weaponisation
of space, the entire use of space for commercial purposes
and the common good is threatened.
While the United States is still a long way from deploying
weapons in space, much of the technology developed in ground-based
missile defence is being exploited to design missile defence
systems launched from outer space, and is also applicable
to space weaponisation. Clearly, we all have a lot to lose
if space becomes a shooting gallery. So it is in our best
interest to ensure that the common resource of space remains
free from weapons that can create dangerous debris should
a satellite be destroyed. The Chinese anti-satellite missile
test in January, for example, is expected to double the density
of space debris larger than 1 cm at altitudes near 850km for
at least five years - putting at risk even the Chinese satellite
programme, which is carrying out about 10 launches each year.
The British government (among many others) has long supported
the development of 'rules of the road' and international legal
instruments to ensure that no weapons are tested or deployed
for use in or from space. Given the enormous benefits this
would bring to UK national and economic security, it should
have been a consideration in discussions with the US government
over missile defence.
However, in a three-paragraph written statement slipped out
in July, the UK Defence Secretary announced that the Government
is permitting the US administration to install additional
equipment at Menwith Hill, in Yorkshire, to support its missile
defence system. Why wasn't this approval made conditional
on US support for ensuring that space remains a weapons free
sanctuary?
Unfortunately, the UK government's earlier decision in December
2002 to accede to a US upgrade at Fylingdales set a poor precedent
in terms of process, transparency and accountability. At the
time, the UK Defence Committee "strongly regretted the way
in which the issue had been handled by the Government". This
latest announcement is a further escalation in Britain's missile
defence commitment without public debate or parliamentary
scrutiny. Given US plans to weaponise space, the decision
is clearly at odds with British space policy interests.
Upcoming events
- Forum: Civil Society and Outer Space -Where do we stand
on using outer space for peaceful purposes?, 8 - 9 October
2007, UN/VIC, Vienna
- 50th anniversary of the Outer Space Treaty, 10 October
- UN World Space Week 4-10 October: www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/wsw/
- Keep Space for Peace Week 4-13 October:
http://www.space4peace.org
United States
MD architecture in Eastern Europe
BACKSTORY: The United States unveiled its plan
in January to place a radar system in the Czech Republic and
10 interceptor missiles in Poland, as components of its missile
defence system. Russia has voiced strong opposition to the
proposed deployment.
Developments in the Czech Republic
US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates is likely to visit the
Czech Republic in late October to discuss the plan to station
a radar base in the country. The possible location of the
radar is near Misov on the Brdy military base some 90 km southwest
of Prague
Several US delegations have already visited the Czech Republic
over the possible radar base, including President George W.
Bush in June and Henry Obering, head of the Missile Defence
Agency (MDA) in April. Czech and US officials have been negotiating
on the conditions of the base's construction for several months
and are likely to last at least a few more months. While the
Czech government supports the idea of the US base, opposition
parties and a majority of the citizens are against it. 51%
are opposed according to a recent survey by the US Opinion
Research Corporation - commissioned by the Missile Defence
Advocacy Alliance (MDAA), a US NGO supporting the anti-missile
system. Earlier polls showed that over a half or up to two-thirds
of Czechs are against the US plan. The possible Czech-US agreement
on the base needs to be passed by the Czech parliament.
A three-member delegation of the US Congress, headed by Democrat
Ellen Tauscher, had talks with Czech politicians on the radar
base in Prague on 14 September. Tauscher said both the Democrats
and the Republicans agreed that anti-missile systems were
necessary, but must be fully incorporated in NATO and protect
both Europe and the United States. Although Congress cut the
budget for the construction of the Polish base (see below),
the money may be earmarked next fiscal year, Tauscher said.
"We didn't say no," she said, adding that the Congress wanted
the work on the missile defence system to continue.
Developments in Poland
Public opinion in Poland, unlike in the Czech Republic may
be swinging around in support of the BMD plan - 58% of respondents
in a recent poll by the US Opinion Research Corporation indicated
support; 67% said the BMD system would contribute to strengthening
NATO. However, since this was a poll commissioned by Washington-based
pro-missile defence advocates it should be treated with some
caution. Earlier polls in August and July showed 56% and 55%
respectively, of Polish respondents opposed to the deployment
of an anti-missile shield on their soil.
Russian and other reactions
Face-to-face talks between US President George W. Bush and
his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in a Sydney hotel on
September 7 focused on differences over missile defence. They
met on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific economic meeting in
Australia. On September 10, US Assistant Secretary of State
John Rood, after meeting with a Russian counterpart (Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak) in Paris, confirmed that
the United States has floated new ideas for joint missile
defence with Russia, but that it is sticking by plans in Eastern
Europe A third round of US-Russian talks on missile defence
- following a similar meeting in Washington in July - is set
to take place in Moscow in October.
Six political parties in Central Europe issued a joint statement
on September 14 calling for a moratorium on more ballistic
missiles being located in the region. The statement, issued
following a meeting in Prague, was signed by representatives
of Social Democrat or other left-wing parties in Germany,
Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia and Slovenia.
On 5 September, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico criticised
the United States for bypassing NATO with its MD plans, saying:
"Put this issue on the table at NATO, and we will seriously
debate it and take a stance. But we will not support these
bilateral adventures". Another Czech neighbour, Austria, has
also criticised the plans. Its defence minister Norbert Darabos
called it a "provocation" reviving Cold War debates. A more
predictable critic was Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
In a speech on 16 August he attacked US missile defence plans,
saying it threatens countries that oppose American influence.
An NGO conference in London on September 1 called
on governments to reject the MD plans for Eastern Europe.
The keynote
speech was made by Jan Neoral, Mayor of Trokavec in the
Czech Republic.
At hearings before Congress organised by the American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) on August 28, Professor
Theodore Postol of Massachusetts Institute of Technology presented
evidence to suggest that: (a) a working two-stage interceptor
based in Poland could threaten Russian ICBMs based west of
the Urals; (b) an Aegis ship could defend Britain from an
Iranian missile if based in either the Baltic or Mediterranean
seas; and (c) the MDA has given misleading presentations about
the third interceptor site in Eastern Europe. The full presentation
is available here: http://cstsp.aaas.org/files/BriefOnEastEuropeMissileDefense.PDF
Further reading:
"Missile defence system must be part of NATO -- U.S. Congresswoman",
http://www.ceskenoviny.cz/news/index_view.php?id=271459
"Polls Show More Support for Missile Defense in Poland Than
Czech Republic", Elena Nikleva, http://www.crosswalk.com/news/11554298/
"Leaders of Central European left-wing parties reject U.S.
missile defense plan", The Associated Press, 14 September
2007, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/14/europe/
EU-GEN-Czech-Missile-Defense.php
"US sticks by missile defense plans in Eastern Europe over
Russian objections", The Associated Press, 10 September
2007, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/10/europe/
EU-GEN-France-US-Missile-Defense.php
"Radar opponents prevail among Czechs - U.S. survey", http://www.ceskenoviny.cz/news/index_view.php?id=270553
"Slovak PM slams U.S. for missile defense "adventure"', Reuters,
5 September 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/09/05/AR2007090500362.html
"Opposition to Missile Shield Still Strong in Poland", Angus
Reid Global Monitor, 28 August 2007, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/
fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/17012
"Russia Talks Tough on Missile Defense", The Associated
Press, 23 August 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2007/08/23/AR2007082301681.html
"Iran condemns US missile defence", James Orr and agencies,
The Guardian, 16 August 2007, http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2149953,00.html
"Czech Republic: Missile Defense 'Based On Capability,' Not
Threats", 13 August 2007, http://www.payvand.com/news/07/aug/1098.html
"Inside the European Missile Defense Plan", Noah Shachtman,
1 August 2007, http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/08/inside-the-euro.html
Funding for MD in 2008
BACKSTORY: The defence authorization bill for 2008
contains more than $9 billion for ballistic missile defence
programmes, including additional ground-based interceptors
in the United States or Europe, the Airborne Laser (ABL) programme,
the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) programme, and the Kinetic
Energy Interceptor (KEI).
Lawmakers in both houses cut funding for missile defence
sites to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic, though
by different amounts. The House cut the $310 million request
by $139 million; the Senate trimmed $85 million. Overall,
the House cut $298 million from the $9 billion total requested,
while the Senate cut $310 million at a September 11 hearing.
No funding is provided by the Senate sub-committee for the
Space Test Bed and the Space Experimentation Center. Instead,
the sub-committee recommends full funding for near-term missile
defence programmes, including Alaskan and Californian ground-based
missile defense efforts, Aegis ballistic missile defence,
Theater High Altitude Area Defense and the ABL. An additional
$100 million is provided for test and training range upgrades
and support and ground-based missile defence upgrades, and
a further $75 million for Arrow co-production, the Arrow System
Improvement Program and Short Range Ballistic Missile Defense.
The Senate sub-committee also called for a Prompt Global Strike
initiative (see below) with $125 million, which would consolidate
"disparate" efforts across the Defense Department.
Further reading:
"Senate Appropriators Cut European BMD Request", Michael
Bruno, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, 12 September
2007.
New study on boost phase options
In The Importance of Boost Phase Missile Defense,
Marshall Institute President Jeff Kueter reviews the current
state of America's boost phase options and argues for greater
emphasis on this mission by the US administration and Congress.
He reviews progress made by the two existing boost programs,
the Airborne Laser (ABL) and Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI),
and reviews the past progress made on space-based interceptors.
Clearly a fan, Kueter notes: "In the end, policymakers wrestling
with whether to support the budgets for the ABL and the KEI
or considering whether to initiate a space-based interceptor
program should not lose sight of the reasons why such investments
are critically important. With millions of lives at stake
and growing missile arsenals, what kind of future do we want
to have? One free of the fear that a peer competitor, a rogue
state, or a terrorist could use a ballistic missile to threaten
us or one where our leaders have the means to defend us? We
know what choice the people would make. It is up to our government
to make it so." Copies of this publication may be found at
http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/553.pdf.
Third Vandenberg interceptor to be in
place by December
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) plans to have a third Ground-based
Midcourse Defense system interceptor emplaced at Vandenberg
Air Force Base in California by the end of the year. Vandenberg
currently has four silos: two have operational interceptors
emplaced and two are used for testing. The MDA plans to add
two more silos for operational interceptors, one in December
and one at some point in 2008. In addition to Vandenberg,
Ft. Greely in Alaska has a pair of operational missile fields
with -- as of December 2006 -- 15 silos and 14 emplaced interceptors.
MDA plans to have 24 interceptors deployed in Alaska by the
end of this year.
New missile villain identified - Venezuela!
According to an article in Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
(16 August 2007), technical experts at the US Missiles and
Space Intelligence Center (MSIC) have added Venezuela to a
watch list of nations possessing, selling or seeking weapons
technology that could threaten the United States or its allies
if proliferated. The usual suspects include North Korea, China,
Russia, India, Pakistan, and Syria. Venezuela, however, is
the only one of those nations in short range of the United
States - although it also appears to be the only one without
the missiles.
Space policy
BACKSTORY: A new National Space Policy signed by
President George Bush in October last year asserts that the
United States has the right to conduct whatever research,
development and "other activities" in space that it deems
necessary for its own national interests.
The US relies on infrared satellites to provide early warning
of missile launches. In 1996, the Department of Defense (DOD)
initiated the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) programme
to replace the current missile detection system and provide
expanded capabilities to support intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance missions. DOD expected to field SBIRS by
2004 at a cost of about $4.2 billion. However, over the past
11 years, SBIRS has proven to be technically challenging and
substantially more costly.
SBIRS is now estimated to cost over $10.4 billion, and the
first satellite launch is expected in 2008. Because of continuing
problems with SBIRS, DOD began a parallel alternative effort
in 2006 known as the Alternative Infrared Satellite System
(AIRSS). On September 12, the US Government Accountability
Office (GAO) published the findings of its recent review of
both SBIRS and AIRSS. It concludes that "SBIRS still faces
challenges in meeting cost, schedule, and performance goals"
and that "DOD has not adequately justified its decision to
proceed with AIRSS". Based on these findings, the GAO recommended
that "DOD re-examine the AIRSS program".
Meanwhile, reports in Defense Daily indicate a vigorous debate
among Pentagon leaders as to which agency - the Air Force
or Missile Defense Agency - should perform the mission of
guarding against anti-satellite threats.
Further reading:
"Brass Debate Whether New Platform Needed To Counter ASAT
Threat", Dave Ahearn, Defense Daily, 19 September .2007
"Space Based Infrared System High Program and its Alternative",
GAO-07-1088R, 12 September 2007, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1088R
Prompt Global Strike
The US Navy has been seeking to convert Trident II D-5 SLBMs
to carry conventional warheads. Although Congress eliminated
the $127 million earmarked in the fiscal year 2007 budget
for this purpose, the US Air Force and Navy continue to push
for a so-called Prompt Global Strike capability. In 2008 US
lawmakers appear likely to provide some funding. The Senate
appropriations committee allocated $125 million to the Defense
Department for developing alternatives to the conventional
Trident (the Navy had asked for $175 million), while the House
appropriations committee also denied the Navy's request and
instead set aside $100 million for a DoD programme to develop
propulsion, guidance systems, re-entry vehicles and other
technologies useful for a variety of approaches to prompt
global strike capability.
Further reading:
US 'Prompt Global Strike'
Capability: A New Destabilising Sub-State Deterrent in the
Making? Ian Davis and Robin Dodd, BASIC Paper No.51, June
2006.
Russia
Proposed joint US-Russian use of radar
in Azerbaijan
BACKSTORY: At the G8 Summit in June, Putin made
a surprise offer of partnership with the US, proposing to
share data from a Soviet-era air-defence radar system leased
by Russia and located at Gabala in Azerbaijan.
The Russian offer appears to sit uncomfortably with Azerbaijan.
Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said on September 19 that
joint US-Russian use of the radar station would raise security
concerns for his country. His comments came a day after experts
from Russia and the United States visited the Gabala radar
station. The United States has not rejected the idea, but
has expressed reservations about Gabala's usefulness and has
indicated it would consider the station as a supplement to
other installations rather than an alternative.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, in an Op-Ed
in The Washington Post, in early August called Putin's
proposal for NATO-Russian cooperation on missile defence "a
bold initiative" and "unprecedented". In a subsequent interview
he said: "The proposal, at least in some aspects, seems to
suggest that Russia and NATO and America should link together
their warning systems, and to some extent their missile defense
capabilities, in so far as Iran is the problem. This would
be a departure from the way these issues have been handled
in the past, and maybe indicate other possibilities in other
fields of joint action to common problems."
Further reading:
"Azerbaijan says US-Russian use of radar station would raise
security concerns", The Associated Press, 19 September
2007.
"Azerbaijan: U.S., Russian Experts Arrive For Missile-Defense
Talks", Chloe Arnold, RFE/RL, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/09/
2b796c26-4962-4c1a-9ddd-a27368081d60.html
"Russian radar site doesn't fit US missile needs", Jim Mannion,
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?
page=2007%5C08%5C18%5Cstory_18-8-2007_pg4_22
"Kissinger: Russian-NATO Missile Defense Proposal Unprecedented",
9 August 2007, http://mensnewsdaily.com/2007/08/09/
kissinger-russian-nato-missile-defense-proposal-unprecedented/
Russia upgrading missile defences
On August 11, President Putin announced that Russia has launched
a vast program to improve the country's missile defence system
- as a response to US plans to deploy a new anti-missile system
in Eastern Europe. He opened a new early warning and anti-missile
facility at Lekhtusi, 30 miles north of St. Petersburg. This
was said to be "the first step in the implementation of a
major early warning program up to the year 2015". A similar
advanced radar installation is under construction at Armavir
in southern Russia. In addition, a new S-400 Triomf missile
defence system, designed to defeat Stealth bombers, has gone
onto combat alert in the Moscow region.
Further reading:
"Walker's World: The Russian bear is back", 13 August 2007,
http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/
Analysis/2007/08/13/walkers_world_the_russian_bear_is_back/8777/
Missile incident in Georgia
On 6 August, an air-launched missile impacted open space
in the Shida Kartli region to the south east of the zone of
the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. Georgia has asserted that
a Russian military aircraft violated its airspace, leaving
behind the missile that failed to explode. Russia has denied
the incident and accused Georgia of putting on a "theatrical
presentation" aimed at cancelling scheduled talks over the
breakaway area's future status. The OSCE Chairman-in-Office,
Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos has been leading
an investigation
into the incident. His Personal Representative, former Croatian
foreign minister Miomir Zuzul, held between 20 and 24 August
in Tbilisi and Moscow
UK government approves use of Menwith Hill
for US BMD
Defence Secretary Des Browne announced
on 25 July (Hansard, Column 71WS)that Britain has agreed to
a Royal Air Force base at Menwith Hill in North Yorkshire
being used as part of the US missile defence system. "Equipment
will be installed and operated by the US government to allow
receipt of satellite warnings of potentially hostile missile
launches, and will pass this warning data to both UK and US
authorities. The data will also be fed into the US ballistic
missile defence system for use in their response to any missile
attack on the US". He also said that the upgrade to Fylingdales
early warning radar that began in 2003 was now completed.
Although Mr Browne said the government had "no plans to site
missile interceptors in the UK", it would "keep this under
review as the threat evolves".
Des Browne argued that the development of the US missile
defence system will enhance the collective security of the
United Kingdom and Europe: "Missile defence systems are just
that - defensive. They are not for offensive use and by supporting
American efforts in this area, both through scientific cooperation
and by allowing the use of facilities in the UK, we are helping
to build future protection for our citizens". One can only
assume that the Defence Secretary is badly informed of both
the destabilizing impact of the proposed missile defence architecture
in Eastern Europe and the potential offensive role of US missile
defences in a nuclear exchange.
Des Browne's statement also claims that "The UK will have
full insight into the operation of the US missile defence
system when missile engagements take place that are wholly
or partly influenced by data from the radar at Fylingdales".
But as Liberal Democrat Leader, Menzies Campbell has pointed
out in an Op Ed in The Yorkshire Post, "This amounts
to a pledge of information post-event, but no part in any
decision on how to respond or under what assumptions and instructions".
An open letter (published in The Guardian) to the
Prime Minister on 3 August from 23 MPs demanded a Commons
vote on the issue. The group of MPs- which includes former
cabinet minister Clare Short and former Defence Minister Peter
Kilfoyle - are furious that the decision was slipped out by
the Ministry of Defence the night before MPs headed off on
holiday. A YouGov poll on the same day showed that 54 per
cent of the public believe that stationing the US radar and
communications stations, and possibly interceptor missiles,
in the UK increases the threat of attack on the country. A
large majority of the public - 68 per cent - said a Commons
vote should be allowed, in the online poll commissioned by
the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND).
Further reading:
"Why Britain must ask tough questions on Menwith Hill", Menzies
Campbell, Yorkshire Post, 20 September 2007. http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/opinion/
Menzies-CampbellMenwith-Hill-Why-Britain.3216987.jp
MPs
demand debate on 'Son of Star Wars' base in Yorkshire Dales,
Colin Brown, Deputy Political Editor, The Independent,
3 August 2007.
The
Big Question: Why has the US base at Menwith Hill created
such a political storm?, by Ben Russell, Political Correspondent,
The Independent, 3 August 2007.
MPs
must debate US missile defence, Letters, The Guardian,
3 August 2007.
CND/YouGov
opinion poll results, 26-30 July 2007
"Brown's contempt for democracy has dragged Britain into
a new cold war", George Monbiot, The Guardian, 31 July 2007,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2138293,00.html
China: new analysis on ASAT
An article
by Ashley J. Tellis in the September 2007 issue of Survival
challenges the conventional wisdom that China's anti-satellite
test (ASAT) was a protest against US space policy, arguing
instead that it was part of a loftier strategy to combat US
military superiority and one that China will not trade away
in any arms-control regime.
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