MISSILE DEFENCE UPDATE

23 March 2006

In this issue:

• United States
  • Missile defence R&D funding: is the micro satellite program leading to space based weapons by stealth?
  • BMD oversight: re-arranging the deck chairs in the Pentagon.........while hiding the icebergs at MIT... and ignoring calls for greater transparency from the Government Accountability Office
  • Two critical reports by the DoD Inspector General: BMD wide open to hackers?
  • Missile test launch in Alaska
• Canada
  • US snubs Canadian overtures
• Poland
  • Leading European candidate for US BMD interceptors
• Japan
  • US to deploy radar system: more details announced
  • Joint US-Japanese test of missile defence system
• Russia
  • Back to the Future with a New Generation of ICBMs
• Publications

Past editions of Missile Defence Update are available at: http://www.basicint.org/update/mdu.htm.

UNITED STATES

Missile defence R&D funding: is the micro satellite program leading to space based weapons by stealth?

Last month in Missile Defence Update we reported on how missile defence funding continues to spiral upwards. Budgets for the research and development (R&D) elements (known as the R2 Budget Justifications) for the Air Force and Missile Defense Agency (MDA) indicate a similar trajectory. Two of the key budgets are now available on line.

AIR FORCE: https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/FMB/pb/2007/rdtande.html

MDA: http://www.dod.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2007/
budget_justification/pdfs/rdtande/Vol_2_MDA/MDA_RDTE_DW.pdf

Analysis of these budgets by Victoria Samson and Theresa Hitchens at the Center for Defense Information (CDI) suggests that the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is committed to fielding a space-based missile defense layer, contrary to what MDA officials have been saying in public about not "making a decision" until 2008. The following account is a summary of their analysis and has been adapted and reproduced with the kind permission of Theresa Hitchens. The R2 Budget Justifications state:

"The Space Test Bed is an essential element of the BMDS acquisition plan. (emphasis added)

A Space Layer will complement the forward-based, boost and midcourse capabilities of the BMDS, mitigating limitations imposed by geography and basing availability. A Space Layer helps protect the United States and our Allies against asymmetric threats designed to exploit coverage and engagement gaps in our terrestrial defenses. We plan to explore the addition of a space-based defensive layer to complement the evolutionary BMDS. We believe that a mix of terrestrial and space-basing offers the most effective global defense against ballistic missiles."

In 2005, the MDA described the initial BMD system as including 50-100 interceptors for both boost-phase and mid-course. The MDA has said, and the budget justification documents show, no funding for the Space-Based Test Bed (SBTB) in FY 07, but funding starting in FY 08, with in-orbit testing expected in the FY 2012-14 timeframe.

However, in FY 07 the MDA is funding three micro satellite experiments in a different part of the budget from the SBTB. This funding stream is for development of advanced technologies but will clearly become part of the SBTB in future (since the R2 budgets explain that the SBTB is more than just Space-Based Interceptors). The R2s state:

"Potentially, Space-Based Test Bed will integrate multiple space-dependent tests, demonstrations, integration efforts and experiments that provide capability improvements, reduce developmental cycle time and/or improve integrated BMDS performance."

The Micro Satellite program also appears to have a dual-use potential: space-based missile defence and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons development. The first micro satellite experiment is designed to develop small constellation of space-based micro satellites "to track targets in space." There are no missile defence targets in space, but there are potential 'enemy' satellites in space.

The second micro satellite experiment is designed to prove new propulsion concepts for micro satellites. That means that the MDA is trying to develop micro satellites that move. Maneuverable micro satellites would be needed for an ASAT capability.

The third experiment is to develop a micro satellite and use it as a target (the R2s don't say for which BMD system). If such a test actually involved firing an interceptor at a target, rather than simply tracking it, such a test would represent a qualitative leap into space-based weapons, since it would be a clear ASAT rather than BMD test. Hence, this Target Risk-Reduction Experiment may be a thinly disguised ASAT test.

In addition, the MDA is also funding the development of Multiple (formerly Miniature) Kill Vehicles, initially being designed to be carried by the GMD interceptors, and later to be configured to fit Kinetic Energy Interceptors (KEI) and Aegis. And while they don't say it directly in the FY 07 R2s, these Kill Vehicles - which MDA describes as being "the size of a loaf of bread", are also expected to be transitioned in space.

And the bottom line: while the MDA keeps saying that there is no money in the Space-Based Test Bed, there is plenty of R&D scheduled in FY 07 on space-based missile defence writ large. Further, it doesn't take much of a leap of faith to assume that at some point, the idea would be to put the Multiple Kill Vehicles on the maneuvering micro satellites. This may not provide the capability to shoot down a missile, but it would to destroy a satellite.

For further information on how the Pentagon's FY 2007 budget request funds nearly a billion dollars in programs that could provide dual-use space weapons capabilities, see the joint-analysis by CDI and the Henry L. Stimson Center available at:

http://www.cdi.org/pdfs/FY07SpaceWeapons.pdf and http://www.stimson.org/space/pdf/FY07SpaceWeapons.pdf

Defense Daily (10 March), reports the MDA director Lt.Gen. Trey Obering assuring members of the House Armed Services Committee's Strategic Forces panel that its plans to start building a SBTB in FY 2007 are for a test bed only, not a plan to put interceptors in space. "It is a test bed just for experimental purposes," he is quoted as saying.

BMD oversight: re-arranging the deck chairs in the Pentagon.........while hiding the icebergs at MIT... and ignoring calls for greater transparency from the Government Accountability Office

Inside Missile Defense (1 March) reports that the Pentagon is revamping the way it oversees the MDA. A draft charter for a "Ballistic Missile Defense Executive Board," is currently being drawn up, which will "recommend and oversee implementation of strategic policies and plans, program priorities, and investment options to protect our nation and our allies from any form of ballistic missile attack." Further, the board will "incorporate evolving requirements into a comprehensive acquisition strategy to develop and field operational missile defense capability." The new board will replace the DOD's "Senior Executive Council" as the senior oversight body for missile defense activity, but decision authority will reside with the under secretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics and with the director of the MDA. The new board is expected to help DOD improve missile defense information flow among stakeholders like MDA, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, combatant commanders and the intelligence community.

Meanwhile, Associated Press reported on 4 March that the DoD is to investigate claims of missile research fraud at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) http://www1.whdh.com/news/articles/local/BO15413/ The investigation comes some three years after the DoD refused to allow MIT access to documents needed for its own investigation. The allegations stem from a 1997 test of an infrared sensor over the Pacific Ocean.

And a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Missile Defense Agency Fields Initial Capability but Falls Short of Original Goals, released on 15 March concludes (as the title suggests) that "MDA made good progress during fiscal year 2005 in the development and fielding of two of the seven elements reviewed. Most of the others encountered problems that slowed progress." http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-327

Source: MDA (data); GAO (presentation and analysis).

Congress requires the GAO to assess MDA's progress annually. This year's report recommends that to better ensure the success of future development efforts, the MDA "implement a knowledge-based acquisition strategy for future missile defense efforts, assess whether such a strategy is compatible with a 2-year block strategy, and adopt more transparent criteria for reporting significant departures from plans". However, the DOD "did not concur" with this third and crucial recommendation - that the MDA adopt more transparent criteria for identifying and reporting significant changes in quantities, cost, or performance - "because it believes that current reporting requirements and reviews offer an adequate level of oversight."

Two critical reports by the DoD Inspector General: BMD wide open to hackers?

According to a DoD Inspector General's (IG) report, Information Technology Management: Select Controls for the Information Security of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense Communications Network (D-2006-053) released on 24 February, the BMD system may have been left wide open to hackers with such serious security flaws that the MDA and its contractor, Boeing, may not be able to prevent misuse of the system. Federal Computer Week (http://fcw.com/article92640-03-16-06-Web) suggested that these security flaws could cripple the missile defence network. The concerns identified in the IG report include:

• the use of group passwords on the unencrypted portion of MDA's Ground-based Midcourse Defence (GMD) communications network;
• the failure to install a system to conduct automated log audits on unencrypted communications and monitoring systems (even though current DOD policies require it);
• a communications network that was developed to conform to more than 20-year-old DOD security policies rather than more recent guidelines, and which lacks a comprehensive user account management process; and
• the failure of the MDA and Boeing to conduct required Information Assurance (IA) training for users before they were granted access to the network.

Spokesmen for MDA, Boeing and Northrop Grumman, contractor for the unencrypted portions of the system, all declined to answer questions from Federal Computer Week on the security flaws. Boeing and Northrop Grumman deferred to MDA, and an MDA spokesman said his agency would not answer any press questions until it responds to the IG report on 24 March.

To further add to the intrigue the DoD removed the IG report from its Web site, although Federal Computer Week saved a digital version and posted it on its own Web site. The computer magazine was unable to get an explanation for the report being removed from either the IG or MDA. http://www.fcw.com/article92668-03-20-06-Web&RSS=yes

A second damaging report by the IG was published on 2 March: Acquisition: System Engineering Planning for the Ballistic Missile Defense System, http://www.dodig.mil/Audit/reports/FY06/06-060.pdf. The report suggests that a lack of systems engineering plans could derail efforts to field an integrated BMD system. The concerns noted in the report include:

• because of poor planning, MDA cannot assure the security of information systems used by the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) element and Aegis BMD element;
• a lack of systems engineering discipline threatens the interoperability of THAAD, a conglomeration of radars, missile systems, launcher systems, and command and control/battle management and communications systems; and
• the Airborne Laser (ABL) element faces similar information security problems because the systems engineering plan is out of date and contactors have not complied with the software development plan.

Missile test launch in Alaska

Associated Press reported on 23 February that a successful missile test launch took place from Alaska's Kodiak Island. The 11-metre-long missile travelled about 4,000 kilometres over the Pacific Ocean toward the California-Mexico border before splashing into the sea. The purpose was to test upgrades to early-warning radar installed in 1980 at Beale Air Force Base in northern California. Although the test was reported as a success, with all "26 test objectives" being met, an earlier attempt to launch the missile was aborted because a "power anomaly" interrupted electricity at the launch pad.

An actual ballistic missile interceptor was not involved in the test, but the exercise included a simulated launch from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base, one of two interceptor sites. See the February edition of Missile Defence Update for a report on growing concerns about the efficacy of US BMD.

CANADA

US snubs Canadian overtures

Last month in Missile Defence Update we asked if the newly elected minority Conservative government would seek to reverse the previous Liberal government's decision to opt out of the US program. During the recent election, Conservative party leader Stephen Harper pledged to reopen talks if they were requested by the Bush administration, and to bring any agreement before Parliament for a free vote. Canada's Defence Minister, Gordon O'Connor, was reported on 23 February to have been willing to reopen the controversial debate if the United States were to extend another invitation. http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2006/02/23/1458884-cp.html However, on February 24 the Associated Press reported US Ambassador David Wilkins as saying that the United States had no current plans to reopen missile defence negotiations with Canada. "I know of no overture or effort being made by either side to begin the discussions," Wilkins said. Presently a joint Canadian-US system monitors for incoming missiles, but only the Americans at North American Air Defense (NORAD) headquarters in Colorado would be involved in launching a counter-strike against them.

For a Canadian blog against missile defence and space-based warfare go here: http://nobmdeh.blogspot.com/

POLAND

Leading European candidate for US BMD interceptors

On the 4 March, the Deutche Press Agency (quoting an earlier report in Poland's Gazeta Wyborcza) claimed that Poland tops the Pentagon's list for a European missile defence site. Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs Stefan Meller is engaged in ongoing talks with the United States on possible participation in the US BMD system. In 2005, Poland's conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz urged public debate on whether Poland should host US missile bases. Pentagon officials are said to be scouting the Tatra mountains in southern Poland for possible missile base sites.

The Arizona Daily Star (Tucson) reported on 21 March that the MDA expects to make a decision by the fall about where to build a European interceptor site. MDA Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering said that discussions were under way with several countries. The FY 2007 budget request includes $119 million to start buying items that would be needed for the site, planned to become operational around 2010 to 2011. Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland have said they are in discussions with the United States about the site.

JAPAN

US to deploy radar system: more details announced

In last month's Missile Defence Update we reported that the United States plans to deploy the X-band radar system (an early warning component of ballistic missile interception) in Japan within six months. Further details of this deployment were reported by Associated Press on 3 March http://www.armytimes.com/story.php?f=1-292925-1574174.php. The radar will be deployed at Japan's Air Self-Defense Force base in Tsugaru, which faces the Sea of Japan. About 10 US military personnel and roughly 50 civilians, including technicians and guards, will be stationed at the facility. The US Misawa base (in Aomori Prefecture) is being considered for "rear-area support".

Joint US-Japanese test of missile defence system

Japan and the United States carried out a simulated test of their jointly developed next generation ship-based Aegis missile system on 8 March, as reported by UPI. http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20060308-101940-9154r The two allies are currently developing a new version of the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3), which they hope to have in-service by 2016. The test involved the launch of a conventional SM-3 with a nose cone prototype, from a US Aegis destroyer off Hawaii. The component research on the missile tip was split 50-50 between Raytheon Co. of Waltham, Massachusetts, and Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. under a joint US-Japanese research programme begun in 1999. Raytheon builds the SM-3 missile. The Japanese government officially approved a plan to develop the joint missile defence system with the United States in December 2005 and has earmarked $26 million in 2006 for development costs.

Folding Aegis systems into the missile-defence mix is particularly attractive to both the Pentagon and the defence industry because Aegis ships are in use by a number of US allies and all carry the MK-41 shipboard missile launchers that fire the SM-3. "There are a number of navies all over the world with Standard Missile and vertical launching systems that could employ SM-3, paving the way for a truly global ballistic missile defense capability," observed Ed Miyashiro, vice president of Naval Weapon Systems at Raytheon.

RUSSIA

Back to the Future with a New Generation of ICBMs

In last month's Missile Defence Update we reported on President Putin's claim that Russia had successfully developed and tested a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with multi-targeted independent vehicle (MIRV) warheads. Another throwback to Cold War thinking was reported by United Press International on 2 March: a senior Russian general (Vladimir Vasilenko, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry`s Research Institute) was reported in a major Moscow newspaper (Nezavisimaya Gazeta) as saying Russia might consider the redeployment of intermediate-range, nuclear-capable missiles that were scrapped under the 1987 INF treaty signed by President Reagan and President Gorbachev. While it seems likely that Vasilenko was speaking out of line, it does follow a similar suggestion made in 2005 by Russian Defense Minister Ivanov to US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Ivanov apparently startled Rumsfeld by suggesting to him at one of their meetings that the INF Treaty should be scrapped. Rumsfeld is said to have replied that he could see no reason in Russia`s own national interest why they should want to do so. Any serious move by Russia to pull out of the Treaty would have serious implications for nuclear non-proliferation and for US BMD plans.

Publications

Wade Boese, 'Missile Defense Funding Soars to New Heights', Arms Control Today, March 2006, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_03/MARCH-missiledefense.asp

US Government Accountability Office (GAO), Missile Defense Agency Fields Initial Capability but Falls Short of Original Goals, GAO-06-327, 15 March 2006 http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-327

Messaging Resource on Weapons in Space: http://www.peaceandsecurityinitiative.org/spaceweapons.html

US Department of Defense, Office of Inspector General, Information Technology Management: Select Controls for the Information Security of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense Communications Network (D-2006-053), 24 February 2006, http://www.fcw.com/images/st_images/MDADODIGReport.pdf

US Department of Defense, Office of Inspector General, Acquisition: System Engineering Planning for the Ballistic Missile Defense System (D-2006-06), 2 March 2006, http://www.dodig.mil/Audit/reports/FY06/06-060.pdf

Center for Nonproliferation Studies Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities, 22 March 2006 http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/pdf/060321.pdf

Click here for a Printer-Friendly Version.